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Micheál Martin = Ireland's Worst Ever Party Leader - Page 11 - Peoples Republic Of Cork Discussion Forums

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  #101  
Old 18-01-2016, 08:39 AM
Corcaigh32 Corcaigh32 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jams View Post
But in a 4 seat constituency 20% + 1 vote gets you a seat.

Why should they need 25%?

Unless they're running more than 1 candidate and don't transfer to one another.
I am basing that on it being CSC. A 25% vote is more than 20% plus 1 but remember it assumes that each candidate would get 25% which in CSC they probably wouldn't. Therefore to have a buffer in a constituency like CSC they will need a higher percentage of the vote nationally. If percentage of the vote translated to seats 1-1 then 25% of the vote would get you 41 seats but that never happens. That is the beauty of the MSSTV PR that we run. It is also why 42/43% is an overall majority even though it is not 50%.
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  #102  
Old 18-01-2016, 10:50 AM
Roxetten Roxetten is offline
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Martin topped the poll in 02, 07 & 2011 (after the crash) so surely he will do so again this time out.

2 FF, 1 FG and a dogfight for the last seat between Donncha, Jerry and Ciaran.
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  #103  
Old 18-01-2016, 11:20 AM
Rebel CNC Rebel CNC is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Roxetten View Post
Martin topped the poll in 02, 07 & 2011 (after the crash) so surely he will do so again this time out.
Yes or at least he'll have enough votes to get over the line with little difficulty.
Had 10.7k votes last time out - will lose about 1200 from part of City gone to North Central. That alone would get him over the line but he'll also probably pick up few extra local votes with no Clune or O' Leary in the Blackrock/Mahon or Ballinlough side of constituency.
McGrath is the guy that'll be battling for last seat. Had 7k the last time out and though he won't lose too many to North Central, will be tough to make up the extra votes with sitting minister in his part of the constituency.
His brother's vote in 2014 would suggest that he will be in the mix though.
His other big hope is that a decent % of the votes that went to Carrigaline based Paula Desmond last time out will revert to him.
Labour haven't a hope of picking up the 19% they did in 2011 and will be lucky to pick up the 10% vote they achieved in 2007.
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  #104  
Old 18-01-2016, 11:55 AM
The Sage The Sage is offline
 
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At the Ard Feis Chief Snake Emonn O kEEFFE was sounding out support for IRA-SF FF merger
Mark my words I have it from people who were there
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  #105  
Old 18-01-2016, 11:57 AM
Corcaigh32 Corcaigh32 is offline
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It would make no odds. MM isn't on for it.
Per my earlier posts, he has made some really questionable moves as leader of FF but most of all his policy of constructive opposition has failed massively.
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  #106  
Old 18-01-2016, 12:10 PM
Rebel CNC Rebel CNC is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sage View Post
At the Ard Feis Chief Snake Emonn O kEEFFE was sounding out support for IRA-SF FF merger
Mark my words I have it from people who were there
Wouldn't be surprised if he jumps ship to SF before next dail term ends.
Came close to doing so soon after last election by all accounts.
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  #107  
Old 18-01-2016, 12:11 PM
jams jams is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corcaigh32 View Post
I am basing that on it being CSC. A 25% vote is more than 20% plus 1 but remember it assumes that each candidate would get 25% which in CSC they probably wouldn't. Therefore to have a buffer in a constituency like CSC they will need a higher percentage of the vote nationally. If percentage of the vote translated to seats 1-1 then 25% of the vote would get you 41 seats but that never happens. That is the beauty of the MSSTV PR that we run. It is also why 42/43% is an overall majority even though it is not 50%.
the vote nationally has no effect on the vote in CSC.

The quota is the quota. If SF exceed the quota they'll get a seat.

If they don't exceed the quota they may still get a seat as the last man standing - I just cant see what 25% has to do with anything?
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  #108  
Old 18-01-2016, 12:37 PM
Rebel CNC Rebel CNC is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jams View Post
the vote nationally has no effect on the vote in CSC.

The quota is the quota. If SF exceed the quota they'll get a seat.

If they don't exceed the quota they may still get a seat as the last man standing - I just cant see what 25% has to do with anything?
True

Looking at 4 seat constituencies in last election, 14%-16% first preference more or less guaranteed a seat. Less if you receive decent transfers from running mate or other like minded or local to your area candidates

Last edited by Rebel CNC; 18-01-2016 at 02:21 PM..
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  #109  
Old 18-01-2016, 12:45 PM
Roxetten Roxetten is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebel CNC View Post
True

Looking at 4 seat constituencies in last election, 14%-16% first preference more or less guaranteed a seat. Less if you receive decent transfers from running mate or other like minded or local to your area candidates
In 2011 McGrath and Buttimer got around 11% first preferences each and both got elected.
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  #110  
Old 18-01-2016, 01:41 PM
Meridian Meridian is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sage View Post
At the Ard Feis Chief Snake Emonn O kEEFFE was sounding out support for IRA-SF FF merger
Mark my words I have it from people who were there
I thought they were all snakes in the political sphere, especially in that particular party.
Sur FF would do anything to get into power.
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