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  #81  
Old 17-01-2016, 09:20 PM
Corcaigh32 Corcaigh32 is offline
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People thinking there is any soft vote for FF are imho misreading what's about to happen
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  #82  
Old 17-01-2016, 09:22 PM
CORKBHOY CORKBHOY is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corcaigh32 View Post
It wasn't directed at you or anyone in particular and apologies to everyone.
No worries.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Corcaigh32 View Post
People thinking there is any soft vote for FF are imho misreading what's about to happen
Again, can you elaborate on this?
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  #83  
Old 17-01-2016, 09:33 PM
Corcaigh32 Corcaigh32 is offline
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Current FF percentage is 19 or 20 depending on whether you believe them that's at best late 20s early 30s seats. Bear in mind that people will be voting for a government. Those numbers make an FF FG government the only way FF get into government. That would be FG giving FF a life support system. It would taint the FG holier than thou self image and give credibility to the notion they can do business because they've always been 2 sides of the one coin. This after telling the people for 6 weeks what a demon MM is. Therefore that coalition will not happen. The party memberships won't allow it anyway.

So, there's no way FF are in government. People walking into the polls are not looking to kick the government for Irish Water. They're electing a government. So they'll be little or no transfers unless a candidate has a personal vote and persona which allows it, eg McGrath.

So assume MM finishes 3rd or 4th in the first count. Where is he getting his seat. Meanwhile McGrath is picking up transfers in small amounts from every eliminated candidate. I'm telling you it will be carnage and it will be down to the wire which one is reelected. No way MM walks it.
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  #84  
Old 17-01-2016, 09:45 PM
Meridian Meridian is offline
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Well Corcaigh I would only be too delighted if your number crunching turns out accurate.
But what about last time? The only constituency to bring home 2 FF TD's and they were destroyed everywhere else.


I was assuming 2 FG and 2 FF, what are you thinking?
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  #85  
Old 17-01-2016, 10:02 PM
Corcaigh32 Corcaigh32 is offline
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2 FG min. One FF. Then a lottery. Possibly but unlikely SF. Don't think Labour. Maybe an indie on a crucial issue. But unlikely.
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  #86  
Old 17-01-2016, 10:05 PM
Meridian Meridian is offline
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Originally Posted by Corcaigh32 View Post
2 FG min. One FF. Then a lottery. Possibly but unlikely SF. Don't think Labour. Maybe an indie on a crucial issue. But unlikely.
I wonder about SF, just considering the uproar about water metering in council estates.
With such estates in Mahon, Ballyphehane and Togher. Then of course there is the traditional republican thing in Passage West so I would not write off SF to quickly if your number crunching is correct.
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  #87  
Old 17-01-2016, 10:29 PM
Corcaigh32 Corcaigh32 is offline
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If they hit 25+ % they'll take the 4th seat.
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  #88  
Old 17-01-2016, 10:33 PM
Rebel CNC Rebel CNC is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Corcaigh32 View Post
2 FG min. One FF. Then a lottery. Possibly but unlikely SF. Don't think Labour. Maybe an indie on a crucial issue. But unlikely.
Well if 2 FG and one FF, then it's down to either SF or 2nd FF for last one. Labour dead in the water with weak candidate and woeful poll numbers. Can't see an Ind making it over the line at this stage.
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  #89  
Old 17-01-2016, 10:37 PM
CORKBHOY CORKBHOY is offline
 
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Well if 2 FG and one FF, then it's down to either SF or 2nd FF for last one. Labour dead in the water with weak candidate and woeful poll numbers. Can't see an Ind making it over the line at this stage.
2 FG, 2FF. Simple.
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  #90  
Old 17-01-2016, 10:51 PM
Rebel CNC Rebel CNC is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Corcaigh32 View Post
If they hit 25+ % they'll take the 4th seat.
That'd be some going in South Central. If they hit 25% in SC, could be looking at huge numbers nationally.Doubt they'll need anywhere close to that to pull the final seat. JOB In NC and Sandra McLellan in East Cork each took a seat in four seater with between 10 and 15% of vote.
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