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  #111  
Old 18-01-2016, 02:20 PM
Rebel CNC Rebel CNC is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Roxetten View Post
In 2011 McGrath and Buttimer got around 11% first preferences each and both got elected.
True but in a five seater constituency that SC was in 2011. You'd be relying on some really excellent transfers to get across the line on 11% in a four seater.
Maybe a popular, transfer-friendly independent candidate might do it but would be some achievement. Maureen O' Sullivan the Independent in 4 seat Dublin Central got just less than 12% (11.96%) and managed it by picking up enough of other independent transfers on their elimination.

Last edited by Rebel CNC; 18-01-2016 at 02:51 PM..
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  #112  
Old 18-01-2016, 03:39 PM
Eoin Eoin is offline
 
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Originally Posted by jams View Post
the vote nationally has no effect on the vote in CSC.

The quota is the quota. If SF exceed the quota they'll get a seat.

If they don't exceed the quota they may still get a seat as the last man standing - I just cant see what 25% has to do with anything?
Usually you can translate a percentage of the national vote to a percentage of first preferences in each consituency.

Not saying that 25% natioanlly = 25% locally, btu you can usually correlate an X nationally = Y in a particular constituency. I'm sure since C32 has history of involvement in politics, this is what he's doing.
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  #113  
Old 18-01-2016, 04:05 PM
SoundMan SoundMan is offline
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Originally Posted by Roxetten View Post
Martin topped the poll in 02, 07 & 2011 (after the crash) so surely he will do so again this time out.

2 FF, 1 FG and a dogfight for the last seat between Donncha, Jerry and Ciaran.
Simon Coveny will most likely top the poll this time out. He doesn't really have a viable rival in his party with Buttimer looking to be on very shakey ground for re-election.

Coveny 1st
Mehole 2nd
McGrath 3rd
O'Laoghaire 4th

methinks. O'Laoghaire and Buttimer will be reasonably close, but Lynch will be a distant 6th and may even be behind Finn. In fact I think Finn will get more first preference votes than Buttimer but Coveny's transfers will boost Buttimer.
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  #114  
Old 18-01-2016, 04:26 PM
Bennyton Bennyton is online now
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Originally Posted by SoundMan View Post
Simon Coveny will most likely top the poll this time out. He doesn't really have a viable rival in his party with Buttimer looking to be on very shakey ground for re-election.

Coveny 1st
Mehole 2nd
McGrath 3rd

O'Laoghaire 4th

methinks. O'Laoghaire and Buttimer will be reasonably close, but Lynch will be a distant 6th and may even be behind Finn. In fact I think Finn will get more first preference votes than Buttimer but Coveny's transfers will boost Buttimer.
Mehole and Mcgrath, that's depressing as fuck.

Weird how it's been knocked down to a 4 seater constituency, does anyone know where the other seat has gone to, bor how the boundaries have changed, if they have at all?

B
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Flew in to Cork Monday morning in the wind, rain and fog. He landed 2nd time around, and even though it was sky/ground/sky/ground out the window for the last 20 seconds he met it bang on in fairness.
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  #115  
Old 18-01-2016, 04:30 PM
Corcaigh32 Corcaigh32 is offline
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The 25% nationally is relevant for this reason. Yes a seat is 20% +1. But in a constituency like CSC not traditionally known for its republicanism 20% nationally may not be enough to take a seat because for example, where in Donegal they will get late 20s and maybe early 30s, in CSC I think they will be in the dirt of the last seat fighting it out for transfers. The bigger the national vote, let's use a notional ratio of 70% of that notional vote will apply in CSC whereas in Donegal it will be closer to 120% of their national vote.

So let's say 70% in CSC that would be 17.5% in the constituency.
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  #116  
Old 18-01-2016, 04:40 PM
Bennyton Bennyton is online now
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Originally Posted by Corcaigh32 View Post
The 25% nationally is relevant for this reason. Yes a seat is 20% +1. But in a constituency like CSC not traditionally known for its republicanism 20% nationally may not be enough to take a seat because for example, where in Donegal they will get late 20s and maybe early 30s, in CSC I think they will be in the dirt of the last seat fighting it out for transfers. The bigger the national vote, let's use a notional ratio of 70% of that notional vote will apply in CSC whereas in Donegal it will be closer to 120% of their national vote.

So let's say 70% in CSC, that would be 17.5% in the constituency.
I would see Coveny and Mehole in on the first three counts, "god knows why, as they're fuck all good. "

From here O'Laoighre, McGrath (who barely got in last time), Lynch, who is about as transfer friendly as a smack in the face, Finn and Buttimer will all duke it out for two places.

It's insane though, when you've only 8 TD's to represent a city that's in shit, you can't be throwing votes to the next langer in the party.

If people woted for the candidate rather than the party then you could have Coveny, Mehole, O'Laoighre and Finn all in, which would be about 1000/1 on Paddy Power..
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Originally Posted by They View Post
Flew in to Cork Monday morning in the wind, rain and fog. He landed 2nd time around, and even though it was sky/ground/sky/ground out the window for the last 20 seconds he met it bang on in fairness.
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  #117  
Old 18-01-2016, 04:42 PM
Rebel CNC Rebel CNC is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Bennyton View Post
Mehole and Mcgrath, that's depressing as fuck.

Weird how it's been knocked down to a 4 seater constituency, does anyone know where the other seat has gone to, bor how the boundaries have changed, if they have at all?

B
Overall dail has reduced from 166 to 158 and this was one of the seats lost.
A cyncic might say it was attempt to nobble one of the FF heavyweights but of course the boundry commission would never be open to political pressure!!!


Boundaries have changed with parts of Bishopstown, Model Farm Road etc. going to Cork North Central to make the numbers work!
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  #118  
Old 18-01-2016, 04:51 PM
Bennyton Bennyton is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebel CNC View Post
Overall dail has reduced from 166 to 158 and this was one of the seats lost.
A cyncic might say it was attempt to nobble one of the FF heavyweights but of course the boundry commission would never be open to political pressure!!!


Boundaries have changed with parts of Bishopstown, Model Farm Road etc. going to Cork North Central to make the numbers work!
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/polit...tion-1.2444729

Ah, I see then, well, that looks an awful lot like gerrymandering to me.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by They View Post
Flew in to Cork Monday morning in the wind, rain and fog. He landed 2nd time around, and even though it was sky/ground/sky/ground out the window for the last 20 seconds he met it bang on in fairness.
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  #119  
Old 18-01-2016, 04:53 PM
SoundMan SoundMan is offline
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I think even if O'Laoghaire gets only 17.5% of the first preference vote he'll still take the last seat. The anti-Austerity independent Mick Finn's transfers would likely take O'Laoghaire over the quota.

If Coveny and Buttimer got even 130% of FG's 30% and had 40% fps between them, and 150% national Mehole and McGrath another 30% between them then 17.5% to DOL would leave 12.5% between Finn and Lynch ignoring the "minnows".
Can see Finn getting more than Lynch so say 6.5 to Lynch's 6%. I think even more of Lynch's votes would transfer to DOL than to Buttimer, and the majority of Finn's would.

All this presupposes that O'Laoghaire is ahead of Buttimer, Finn, and Lynch which I think he will be.

Of course with the election date still not called, and it likely to be 6 weeks left there's still a lot can happen but people are extremely annoyed with Irish Water and the fact that under the FG/Lab government the rich have gotten richer, while the poor have gotten poorer.
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  #120  
Old 18-01-2016, 05:47 PM
Rebel CNC Rebel CNC is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoundMan View Post
I think even if O'Laoghaire gets only 17.5% of the first preference vote he'll still take the last seat. The anti-Austerity independent Mick Finn's transfers would likely take O'Laoghaire over the quota.

All this presupposes that O'Laoghaire is ahead of Buttimer, Finn, and Lynch which I think he will be.

.
If he gets 17.5%, he is home and hosed - will be taking second or third seat at worst. He'll be miles ahead of Mick Finn - like Mick Barry in Cork NC, people always over estimate support Mick will get. Fiona Ryan and Jim O' Connell from AAA campaigning hard - they'll take share of votes from Mick as well.

Would think he'll be well ahead of Lynch too - as mentioned, doubt that Lab will reach their 2007 tally of 10% fp in the constituency.
He might be neck and neck with Buttimer but both could get over the line at expense of McGrath.
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