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Old 11-11-2009, 04:10 PM
Lostmeringtopaddypower Lostmeringtopaddypower is offline
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Default When to buy a house in Ireland.

Proc Romeo Hordes a Floppies broached this subject in another thread.

Rather than balls up the other thread, I'll balls up this one instead.

The question was "when to buy a house in Ireland".

I suppose we all have an angle on this heavy theme.

I saw a news article on the RTE website today about same.

It is this:

Quote:
Number of mortgages issued falls again
Wednesday, 11 November 2009 15:40

New figures show that the number of new mortgages given out in the third quarter of this year fell again.

A mortgage market profile - compiled by the Irish Banking Federation and PricewaterhouseCoope rs - showed that 12,189 new mortgages worth just over €2 billion were issued in the three months.

The number of mortgages was down 56.4% from the same period last year, and also down almost 4% from the second quarter of this year.
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The value of the mortgages was more than 62% lower than in the same period last year.

But the figures showed that the number of mortgages issued to first-time buyers - while still well down from a year earlier - rose for the second quarter in a row. First-time buyers now account for almost 30% of the mortgage market.

Mortgages for investment continue to decline, and now account for 5.7% of the market.
Now, this, coupled with the info that 94% of all current new mortgages are being given to public servants (the people earning 25% more than their private sector comrades and having jobs for life and other unimportant snipets) paints a litltle picture of its own.

Taking the case a little further and factoring-in the reduction of the public sector annually (both in numbers and salaries) for probably the next 3-5 years, one can assume that demand for new mortgages will drop again and again for the next 4-8 quarters. At least.

Ireland will also probably see a wave of emigration next year when people realise that the country is paralysed until at least 2012.

=> More empty houses.

There will be scores of thousands of re-possessions in the coming quarters

=> More empty houses.

Interest rates will rise again in Europe as the bigger economies come out of the recession that Ireland will still be in.

Taking one of 2 valuation methods, (Frank likes the multiple of average wage, I like the R.O.I calculation) we come to the conclusion that a normal 3 bed "average" gaff is probably worth between 160 and 180 kiloeuros.

Not the 300K they were being sold for.

In summary, I wouldn't touch an Irish house at the moment, not even with naff's langer.

You have nothing to lose by throwing in an offer of 40% under asking price, of course.

Weird things happen when people are bankrupt.

As an aside, I'd be wary of buying any Irish house finished in the last 10 years.

The quality of the materials is generally shit.

Anyway kids, feel free to abuse me and each other is this bad boy.

Peace,

Your Patrick.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:11 PM
Mick Lyons Mick Lyons is offline
 
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They'll be giving them away with packets of cornflakes in a few months.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:22 PM
a honest mistake a honest mistake is offline
 
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id say if you are currently renting and it is going to be your home for the rest of your life or a good bit of it anyhows, then its not that bad of a time to buy.

I mean average rent of a house is probably close to 1k per month, the average price of a house to buy is somewhere in the region of 225k so the payments on that are going to be around the 650 a month range.

And i know what people are going to say about its better to rent than to buy, but after doing both i have to say i rather live in my own home rather than rent from someone. At least if i want to hang a picture or paint / do up a room i can.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:28 PM
fran the man fran the man is offline
 
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what do people think so, next year end some time ???
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:28 PM
hiawatha hiawatha is offline
 
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I'd say about 1996 is a good time.

Now to work on my time machine...
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:32 PM
i_didnt_do_nawtin i_didnt_do_nawtin is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a honest mistake View Post
id say if you are currently renting and it is going to be your home for the rest of your life or a good bit of it anyhows, then its not that bad of a time to buy.

I mean average rent of a house is probably close to 1k per month, the average price of a house to buy is somewhere in the region of 225k so the payments on that are going to be around the 650 a month range.

And i know what people are going to say about its better to rent than to buy, but after doing both i have to say i rather live in my own home rather than rent from someone. At least if i want to hang a picture or paint / do up a room i can.
I'm getting tired of renting but I just can't motivate myself to buy something whose value is based on lies and more lies.

I'd have to buy in Europe. I was in south-east France a while ago, the locals there said property was expensive so I checked it out. It wasn't. This is a place on the foot of the Alps.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:32 PM
Cliff Barnes Cliff Barnes is offline
 
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Springtime next year.

Lisbon,NAMA and a god awful budget will be history.

The ammount of people who have not bought and saved in the past 2 years will have to egt on with their lives at some stage if they are lucky to have jobs and a bank willing to lend.

Opportunities will be out there to grab a bargain.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:36 PM
rubbish mouth breath rubbish mouth breath is offline
 
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will there ever come a day where people here can just rent at reasonable prices like in other E.U countries?
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:39 PM
Lostmeringtopaddypower Lostmeringtopaddypower is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cliff Barnes View Post
Springtime next year.

Lisbon,NAMA and a god awful budget will be history.

The ammount of people who have not bought and saved in the past 2 years will have to egt on with their lives at some stage if they are lucky to have jobs and a bank willing to lend.

Opportunities will be out there to grab a bargain.
No way.

The economy is going to contract again next year.

There will be less jobs than there are today.

There is no way in hell that property is going to buck the trend, IMHO.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:44 PM
Cliff Barnes Cliff Barnes is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lostmeringtopaddypow er View Post
No way.

The economy is going to detract again next year.

There will be less jobs than there are today.

There is no way in hell that property is going to buck the trend, IMHO.
Pace of decline has slowed and by Q2 next year levelled out with modest growth in Q1 2011 according to economists and Mystic Meg.

Follow the money.

Upturn in UK market and bounce in prices to help NAMA

By Donal Buckley


Wednesday November 11 2009

An upturn in the English property market may spell good news for NAMA as up to €5.9bn of bank loans secured against UK buildings are expected to be transferred to NAMA.

In recent weeks, a number of UK agents have reported a rapid recovery in UK property values. According to Colliers CRE, increasing investor demand has boosted the values of retail, offices and industrial properties and wiped out the losses seen in the first half of the year.

If the trend continues, and there is a serious risk that it won't, then the €10.3bn in UK development land loans earmarked for NAMA could also benefit, as a major portion of this development land is likely to be sold or developed.

Forecast

Colliers has upgraded its forecast for this year when it expects total returns on UK property investment to end on a positive 0.4pc.

This contrasts with its previous forecast of minus 7.3pc for 2009.

Another agent, CB Richard Ellis, estimates that the capital values of UK property rose by 2pc in October and total returns, which also include rental income, rose 2.7pc. This was the fourth consecutive month of growth.

Nevertheless, prices are still about 40pc below their peak. Some Irish investors have already sought to cash in on the improved demand.

For instance, Bank of Ireland recently achieved a gross profit of £7m for an Irish investor client by selling a London office block, Windsor House, in London SW1, for more than £116m.

The 146,000 sq ft office block, which was let to the UK government, was purchased by the London & Oriental investment fund for a far eastern investor.

Anglo-Irish Bank has also agreed a deal to sell off a half-built shopping centre in Wakefields Yorkshire for an undisclosed sum.

The 550,000 sq ft Trinity Walk shopping centre had been placed in administration.

The purchasers include the contractor on the project, Shepherd Construction, and investors Sovereign Land and AREA Property Partners.

- Donal Buckley

Irish Independent
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