United Ireland, Possible?

[SoundMan]

Originally Posted by Meridian

Fuck them up there, most of them in employment are working in Government jobs.

We cannot afford it and that is all about it.
Then we will have Unionist terrorists bombing down here.
The Republic of Ireland says NO.

Who exactly says we cannot afford it and what theories or evidence have they put forward?

Why would we have Unionist terrorists bombing down here if the UK and Ireland were all part of an agreement on it? Should reunification happen do you really think that the UVF will bomb their way back in to the UK???

The Republic of Ireland extends beyond you and as yet hasn't voted on reunification.

Bear in mind it could just as easily have been part of Munster rather than part of Ulster (given both plantations) were it not for the physical proximity of Ulster to Britain

[SoundMan]

Originally Posted by CaptainSensible

That figure was based on a lot of assumptions that may or may not stack up.
The two main ones being harmonization of tax rates which will mean more foreign investment in the North, probably true, but will it come at the expense of the South and thus net net not yield any incremental gain over what would have been invested in any case?
Also secondly they assume the productivity gap will be closed, not sure why NI workers will be become more productive combined with the South as opposed to their current situation as part of the UK.

For the record I'd be in favour of a united Ireland but I'd be dubious of their figures. It took Germany 15 years to bring East Germany up to speed (probably still not fully there) and whilst there is no doubt they are stronger now there was a huge cost involved and they were coming at it from a position of far greater strength than we are.

As a matter of interest who would you be equating to Eastern Germany should NI and the 26 recombine? I don't think even the run down shankill road is as bad as EG used to be, nor Tallaght either.

[Stacky]

Originally Posted by CaptainSensible

That figure was based on a lot of assumptions that may or may not stack up.
The two main ones being harmonization of tax rates which will mean more foreign investment in the North, probably true, but will it come at the expense of the South and thus net net not yield any incremental gain over what would have been invested in any case?
Also secondly they assume the productivity gap will be closed, not sure why NI workers will be become more productive combined with the South as opposed to their current situation as part of the UK.

For the record I'd be in favour of a united Ireland but I'd be dubious of their figures. It took Germany 15 years to bring East Germany up to speed (probably still not fully there) and whilst there is no doubt they are stronger now there was a huge cost involved and they were coming at it from a position of far greater strength than we are.

In reality it would be very costly to this state unless the EU & what is left of the Uk can afford to finance the 6 counties for about 20 years on a sliding scale. The pension requirements up there are huge alone. If a hard Brexit happens the perilous UK finances will not be able to fuly fund the North anyway as well as the economic affects of leaving the single market.

That and trying to placate about 1 million + angry Unionists.

Of course all this is depending on a vote where the majority are willing to throw their lot in with the South and more and more Nationalists / Catholics / Protestants see themselves as "Northern Irish" rather than simply "Irish" or "Bratash"

The DUP could suddenly modernise and ditch their backward anti-Gay, abortion rights, gay wedding cake and pro-Brexit stance and get with the times as the younger generation will continue to reject their stance on many social issues.

What is in it for Cork?

Nothing, as the Dublin - Belfast axis would mop up all the infrastructure and investment spend.

Cork gets little enough as it is.

[collapsedfaceman]

We cant even look after ourselves not to mind an extra 6 counties

[Corcaigh32]

Originally Posted by Stacky

In reality it would be very costly to this state unless the EU & what is left of the Uk can afford to finance the 6 counties for about 20 years on a sliding scale. The pension requirements up there are huge alone. If a hard Brexit happens the perilous UK finances will not be able to fuly fund the North anyway as well as the economic affects of leaving the single market.

That and trying to placate about 1 million + angry Unionists.

Of course all this is depending on a vote where the majority are willing to throw their lot in with the South and more and more Nationalists / Catholics / Protestants see themselves as "Northern Irish" rather than simply "Irish" or "Bratash"

The DUP could suddenly modernise and ditch their backward anti-Gay, abortion rights, gay wedding cake and pro-Brexit stance and get with the times as the younger generation will continue to reject their stance on many social issues.

What is in it for Cork?

Nothing, as the Dublin - Belfast axis would mop up all the infrastructure and investment spend.

Cork gets little enough as it is.

This fascinates me always............

So it's democracy rules but only as long as the unionists are happy with democracy? People slate republicans here for the troubles and rightly so, but the unionists should be allowed and expected to behave to a lesser standard if they lose a referendum on unity?

[CaptainSensible]

Originally Posted by SoundMan

As a matter of interest who would you be equating to Eastern Germany should NI and the 26 recombine? I don't think even the run down shankill road is as bad as EG used to be, nor Tallaght either.

I'm equating two economies where productivity levels are/were vastly different, so therefore I'd expect similar problems to arise. That is the nearest test case to our situation, however we'd have added problems in that a large majority of East Germans wanted unification whereas up North it would be a small majority at best.

I'm not sure why you think it relevant who is the East or West, but to answer we'd be the west as our productivity levels are vastly higher.

[Stacky]

Originally Posted by Corcaigh32

This fascinates me always............

So it's democracy rules but only as long as the unionists are happy with democracy? People slate republicans here for the troubles and rightly so, but the unionists should be allowed and expected to behave to a lesser standard if they lose a referendum on unity?

Highly unlikly that the Unionists are going to carry out a failed 35 terrorism campaign but you would never know what a minority of crackpots would do and just look at the islands history around 1916 onwards.

See the continuity / dissident I.R.A. headbangers for example.


You do know that the Unionists also signed up to the GFA?

[Perry_Mace_On]

Anyone who cares about a united Ireland at this stage in the game has taken their eye off their own life.

[strict66]

Never. Never.

[Corcaigh32]

Originally Posted by Stacky

Highly unlikly that the Unionists are going to carry out a failed 35 terrorism campaign but you would never know what a minority of crackpots would do and just look at the islands history around 1916 onwards.

See the continuity / dissident I.R.A. headbangers for example.


You do know that the Unionists also signed up to the GFA?

Yes of course........which is why I would expect them to be consistent with their mantra of respecting democracy. Irrespective I think if it is done right, there will be so many protections and accomodations built in to any agreement (a lot more than were ever afforded to nationalists) that an agreed unity is eminently achievable when the time comes but as I said in the CA, it's a long road let's see what happens.