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  #221  
Old 30-09-2019, 02:20 PM
shez1987 shez1987 is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloudy O'Ranieri View Post
Not much of a negative, fairly close to parity. They should be comfortably above where they are but still not good enough for a team that had a long spell in the PL up to recently.

It seems like they'll recover to mid table at some stage but managers often don't survive these episodes as we all know.
Jones referenced the fact they are near the top in some stats categories in his press conference earlier, which was interesting.

Their results should improve, they just seem to be suffering from various factors at the moment. Including the fact they have had to play 7 of the top ten in their 9 games to date. You'd expect their concession rate to improve, once they start meeting easier opponents, who may not be as clinical with low value chances.
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  #222  
Old 30-09-2019, 03:06 PM
Cloudy O'Ranieri Cloudy O'Ranieri is offline
 
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Originally Posted by shez1987 View Post
Jones referenced the fact they are near the top in some stats categories in his press conference earlier, which was interesting.

Their results should improve, they just seem to be suffering from various factors at the moment. Including the fact they have had to play 7 of the top ten in their 9 games to date. You'd expect their concession rate to improve, once they start meeting easier opponents, who may not be as clinical with low value chances.
Ah yeah, strength of opposition is always a big factor to consider early on. I wouldn't be panicking just yet if I were them.
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  #223  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:32 PM
Philby Philby is offline
 
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Pards @ 5/2 to be next Stoke gaffer.
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  #224  
Old 07-12-2019, 03:02 PM
Donald Trump Donald Trump is offline
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@ Dan and Phil re this penalty thing we’ve been discussing.

Is there any correlation between time spent in the opponents box and penalties awarded?
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  #225  
Old 07-12-2019, 03:20 PM
Philby Philby is offline
 
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Don't have any stats but I expect there's probably a moderate correlation for many teams but also a few notable outliers.

I recall stats a while back that showed Liverpool had a huge amount of touches in the box (not quite the same, but a decent proxy) and were getting a tiny amount of penalties in comparison.

Plus there was a huge statistical anomaly around the lack of penalties LFC won at Anfield, where they'd be spending a lot of time in the box.

I expect there's a notable correlation for sides who counter-attack well & have pacey final third players.

For example I'd expect Palace are off the charts on pens-per-minute in the box due almost entirely to Zaha.
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  #226  
Old 07-12-2019, 03:31 PM
Donald Trump Donald Trump is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philby View Post
Don't have any stats but I expect there's probably a moderate correlation for many teams but also a few notable outliers.

I recall stats a while back that showed Liverpool had a huge amount of touches in the box (not quite the same, but a decent proxy) and were getting a tiny amount of penalties in comparison.

Plus there was a huge statistical anomaly around the lack of penalties LFC won at Anfield, where they'd be spending a lot of time in the box.

I expect there's a notable correlation for sides who counter-attack well & have pacey final third players.

For example I'd expect Palace are off the charts on pens-per-minute in the box due almost entirely to Zaha.
Thanks for that.

It’s something Cloudy said the other day about the amount of penalties a team is awarded being random. Now he’s usually right about such matters, but I’ve been thinking about it. It just flies in the face of logic, but then some things do.
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  #227  
Old 07-12-2019, 03:42 PM
Philby Philby is offline
 
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Personally I wouldn't think it's random.

But it's a lot less predictable than the rate which goals get scored, for example.
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  #228  
Old 07-12-2019, 05:28 PM
Cloudy O'Ranieri Cloudy O'Ranieri is offline
 
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The rate at which a team gets penalties is not generally repeatable, therefore, including them (because they lead to a 78% shot at goal) in xG or big chance models is a bit iffy. Generally, what happens in open play is the best gauge of how strong a team are.
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  #229  
Old 07-12-2019, 06:46 PM
Philby Philby is offline
 
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9.4% of the penalties Man Utd have ever been awarded in the PL have come in 2019
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  #230  
Old 07-12-2019, 06:59 PM
Down da Castle Down da Castle is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philby View Post
Don't have any stats but I expect there's probably a moderate correlation for many teams but also a few notable outliers.

I recall stats a while back that showed Liverpool had a huge amount of touches in the box (not quite the same, but a decent proxy) and were getting a tiny amount of penalties in comparison.

Plus there was a huge statistical anomaly around the lack of penalties LFC won at Anfield, where they'd be spending a lot of time in the box.

I expect there's a notable correlation for sides who counter-attack well & have pacey final third players.

For example I'd expect Palace are off the charts on pens-per-minute in the box due almost entirely to Zaha.
Kiko Femenia's foul on Wilfried Zaha was the 500th on him in the Premier League, exactly 6 years since Mathieu Debuchy committed the first, on Zaha's top flight debut.

No other team has fouled him more than Watford (33)
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