Will the Government last another 12 months?

How long will it last?

  • 3 Months

    Votes: 5 33.3%
  • 6 Months

    Votes: 6 40.0%
  • 12 Months

    Votes: 3 20.0%
  • Why is Steve Sanders in a Government Poll

    Votes: 1 6.7%

  • Total voters
It will hold together until at least the Local Elections/European Elections/By Elections.

The results of these could put parties in a bind.

If the Greens lose loads of councillors, the grassroots are going to want out, while the parliamentary party is going to want to hang on in the hope that things improve.

Fianna Fail had an awful set of locals last time, so they might not go too much lower. However, if they were to lose seats from an already low starting point, the pressure would be on Cowen as leader.

I suspect it won't actually fall this side of the next budget.
Fianna Fail backbenchers will look to jettison the leader rather than cause an election. This would be true at normal times, but is particularly true now when opinion polls indicate that a quarter of them wouldn't be coming back.

Green TDs know it could be very bad for them too. Cuffe would be gone through boundary changes anyway. Ryan would be under pressure for his seat, but I suspect would make it in on FF transfers. Gogarty would probably be OK as would Sargent. White would be a goner. Gormley could find himself in trouble; the only thing that may save him is that it's hard to see FG or Labour taking 2 in his constituency.

In other words, don't expect the Green TDs to pull the government down.

The only thing that may happen is Green backbenchers forcing the party out.
That's not so true any more

At the election, there were 77 FF, 6 Greens, 2 PDs and 4 Independents giving them 89 votes, while the opposition had 76 and the Ceann Comhairle 1.

Since then we've had 2 deaths, Finian McGrath has walked away from the arrangement, while Joe Behan has left FF, but Beverly Flynn has rejoined.

When push comes to shove, I'd expect Behan to vote to prop the government up though.

So , the current figures are effectively Government 87 Opposition 75.

In those circumstances, if the Greens left the government it would be 81 apiece, although the Ceann Comhairle would probably prop up the government.

However, once the by-elections have finally been held (and I started a thread several months ago about how disgraceful the delay in Dublin South has been), I would expect that gap to narrow by 2 (Dublin Central is likely to be a three way fight between FG, Lab and SF, Dublin South would be more likely to be Lab v FG).
I was disgusted when FF were voted in again in 2007 but am thrilled that they have been left to clean up the mess they created. They are now being revealed as incredibly incompetent, finally the electorate are angry with them. I'm amazed it took this long. A fresh approach is needed, don't know if Enda Kenny can provide that, but I have great faith in Richard Bruton and Eamonn Gilmore.

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