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Trump is back baby!

Who will win the debate

  • Trump

    Votes: 17 33.3%

  • Harris

    Votes: 22 43.1%

  • I genuinely don’t care at this stage

    Votes: 12 23.5%
  • Total voters
    51
  • Poll closed .
Tehran, which has always insisted its nuclear programme is peaceful, accepted tight curbs on it in return for the lifting of sanctions under a 2015 agreement with the administration of then-US President Barack Obama.

Mr Trump abandoned that deal during his first term in ‌2018, claiming it was too soft, and Iran responded by ramping up its enrichment of uranium, producing more than 400kg of material enriched to near the level needed to make a bomb, which remains unaccounted for.


Trump upended the 2015 agreement and he is going to end up with a less favourable agreement, looks like he is going to pay them to open the straits in the form of unfreezing their assets. Some dealer! :rolleyes:
 
How bad boy said:
Errah, AI is a bubble. I do an awful lot of stuff in AI, it's very impressive and is going to make a massive difference to all sorts of operations in companies (especially telecoms with autonomous network level 4 shiz), but it's also a massive bubble.

We're on the same space as internet companies in 1999, valuation way ahead of the ability to deliver on the promises and willingness of the market to pay.
Doesn't mean it won't change the world, any view of the future of the internet in 2025 made in 2000 would almost certainly have grossly underestimated the importance and use of it, but people were laughing at the Pets.com business model for the following decade.

Amazon now delivers cat litter for cheaper than the shops on same day delivery for free round these parts...
Click to expand...
It is both a bubble and an opportunity at the same time.

Like the dot com crash in 2000 a great many companies that have been bid up of late simply because of AI will go to the wall, but there are others which in 10 yrs time you will be kicking yourself going how did I think X(not twitter) was expensive when it was trading at 40 bucks or whatever.
 
CaptainSensible said:
It is both a bubble and an opportunity at the same time.

Like the dot com crash in 2000 a great many companies that have been bid up of late simply because of AI will go to the wall, but there are others which in 10 yrs time you will be kicking yourself going how did I think X(not twitter) was expensive when it was trading at 40 bucks or whatever.
Click to expand...
Microsoft was over value at the time at $60 a share or so in 2000. More than halved within a year.
Currently $380 a share.


For most newly listing AI companies listing now to be worth it, they have to execute flawlessly and the market they predict has to be there really soon.

Chances are, it's going to take longer to realise those predictions and some will screw it up along the way, e.g. OpenAI are no longer the leading AI development company among techies
 
How bad boy said:
Microsoft was over value at the time at $60 a share or so in 2000. More than halved within a year.
Currently $380 a share.


For most newly listing AI companies listing now to be worth it, they have to execute flawlessly and the market they predict has to be there really soon.

Chances are, it's going to take longer to realise those predictions and some will screw it up along the way, e.g. OpenAI are no longer the leading AI development company among techies
Click to expand...
You see your analysis of Microsoft neglects to take into account someone's investing horizon.

If it was 1 year then it was clearly over valued and if it was 25 yrs then it was clearly undervalued.

And on that we are equating price with value as opposed to the metrics involved to make up the price.

An example being Amazon, it was circa 20 bucks 15 yrs ago and seemingly priced for perfection at the time, it is currently 230 with metrics that indicate it is cheaper at 230 bucks than 20 bucks!!
 
CaptainSensible said:
You see your analysis of Microsoft neglects to take into account someone's investing horizon.

If it was 1 year then it was clearly over valued and if it was 25 yrs then it was clearly undervalued.

And on that we are equating price with value as opposed to the metrics involved to make up the price.

An example being Amazon, it was circa 20 bucks 15 yrs ago and seemingly priced for perfection at the time, it is currently 230 with metrics that indicate it is cheaper at 230 bucks than 20 bucks!!
Click to expand...
Now do Yahoo, Nortel, Lucent, etc... even Cisco only recovered to their April 2000 share price in September last year. Intel recovered to their dot-com peak earlier this year.

I agree with your general point, but most of those frontier AI companies+ Tesla and SpaceX prices in that future growth and profit in the current share price.

Maybe they will be the future winners but I don't think the AI moat is as deep as the market is pricing (Deepseek really showed this first) and AI hardware depreciation is going to bite very hard in a few years time. There are credible people new inference hardware companies promising 25-50x performance increases per watt over the next 3 years
 
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