Everything you say while it has merit applies to the short term.
The gulf states basically have no choice but to replenish their weaponry with American arms, the American bases will not be kicked out. As for Nato, Europe et al they just seem to be counting down the days when they hope Trump and Maga will disappear and then everything can return to the way it was. There is no urgency to break away from US dependence, because rightly or wrongly they don't believe Maga will last.
Tut tutting about Trump behind closed doors is about the extent of the weaning off America process. All you mentioned above will be forgotten about in 6 months if this issue resolves itself.
Numbers on actual weapons sales are laggy and frequently unclear. 2024 was a record year, its
market share for 2020-2024 rose to 43% of all world arms exports vs 35% in 2015-2019.
The US supplied 74% of Saudi Arabia's weapons in the 2020-2024 period. The Saudis want 50% of all defence spending to be local by 2030. The Chinese are reportedly providing support for domestic ballistic missile production, they signed a new deal for $5bn worth of drones last month. Spain are building their new class of warships.
The Saudis are already annoyed with the americans, despite agreeing a $142bn arms deal with the US last year, the Americans won't supply the most advanced kit like F35s to the Saudis. The Saudis almost bought a bunch of fighter jets from the Pakistanis but it looks like the Americans have pressured them out of it. They're in talks with Turkey instead to participate in development of the next gen KAAN fighter, I suspect the Turks are less concerned about technology transfer than the Europeans and Americans. They clearly want an alternative to the US.
As for Europe, I think they're now pushing back hard as I think they judge that they're probably ok-ish now, if the US decides to pull the plug on supporting Ukraine. Europe has replaced the US as supplier of funds, which means they now hold the purse strings.
Europe is working very closely with Ukraine on drone production, there's mass production agreements with both UK and Germany, production of Octopus UAVs in the UK is over 1,000 a month now, with production ramping up to several thousand a month, with each drone costing approx $3,000.
Skyfall are looking to ramp up manufacturing of their Skyfall intercepter ($1k a pop) and Vampire drones in Denmark.
Ukraine developed Sky Fortress, an acoustic based drone detection system, it's now being deployed in Lithuania, Latvia are in talks to buy it and Estonia have a version of it that link a bunch of different detection and response systems together, linking the acoustic, radar and tracking systems all together.
Europe is becoming a leader in drone production and deployment, and the Gulf States are very interested:
In recent war games, Ukraine absolutely pwned NATO forces:
During the Hedgehog 2025 exercises in May 2025, Ukrainian drone operators defeated a combined combat group of several thousand NATO troops, including British and Estonian soldiers, who were attempting to […]
militarnyi.com
"During the exercises, the Ukrainian military used
Delta, a modern Ukrainian battlefield management system. It collects intelligence in real time, uses artificial intelligence to analyze large amounts of information, identifies targets, and coordinates strikes between command and units. This ensures a fast ‘chain of destruction.’
According to the publication’s sources, one of the Ukrainian units, consisting of about 10 soldiers, attacked NATO forces. In about half a day, drone operators conditionally destroyed 17 armored vehicles and delivered 30 strikes on other targets.
Overall, the results for NATO forces were ‘terrible,’ said Aivar Hanniotti, coordinator of unmanned aerial systems for the Estonian Defense League, who led a unit of about 100 ‘simulated enemy’ troops, including Estonian and Ukrainian military personnel. Overall, the ‘opponent’ forces “were able to destroy two battalions in a day,” so that “within the scope of the exercise, they effectively lost their combat capability.” Meanwhile, NATO units “didn’t even get to our drone operators.”"
The Ukrainian-led team, which included other NATO forces, beat the NATO-led team in every scenario, using naval drones to target ships and ports.
www.businessinsider.com
"
Off the coast of Portugal, a Ukrainian-led team went up against NATO forces in a naval combat drill targeting ships and ports with naval drones. The Ukrainian "red" team, operating the naval drones, won in every scenario.
...
Across five scenarios, a Ukraine-led "red" team — which also included US, British, Spanish, and other units — beat the "blue" team made up of NATO forces.
"In all five scenarios, Ukrainians struck the ports and convoys of the simulated adversary," Ukraine said.
The red aggressor team used Magura V7 drones, a class of USVs developed by Kyiv and capable of fulfilling intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance roles, as well as combat and mine countermeasure duties. In one scenario, the red team used the drones to simulate the targeting and sinking of a NATO frigate.
Ukraine said a NATO spokesperson acknowledged the threat of naval drones had been previously underestimated."
It has gotten to the point where Ukraine couldn't be arsed with NATO training:
The Ukrainian General Staff has significantly reduced its reliance on overseas training programmes in NATO countries, shifting the bulk of basic military preparation back to Ukrainian soil. The move…
brusselssignal.eu
"Colonel Yevhen Mezhevikin, Deputy Chief of the Main Directorate of Doctrines and Training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,
stated on March 22 in
The New Voice of Ukraine that foreign instructors are “detached from our realities, from current combat operations”.
...
But after more than four years of continuous high-intensity fighting, Ukrainian forces have developed tactics and technologies that many western instructors have never encountered in combat.
These include mass drone deployment, real-time AI-assisted targeting via systems such as Delta and rapid reconnaissance-strike loops, German news outlet
Focus reported earlier in April.
Experts such as former Aidar Battalion commander Yevhen Dykyi noted that the war has evolved faster than peacetime NATO doctrines, turning Ukraine into a
de facto exporter of modern battlefield lessons rather than a passive recipient."
The US is old school defence, they've got the big ships, missiles, planes, tanks etc... It's great from distance and for blowing up infrastructure, but you can't win on the ground with it and it's barely useful against drones.
The future is drone warfare, and Ukraine is the global leader, with Europe alongside them. The US is making massive strategic mistakes by pushing Europe away right now, while there's a huge fundamental shift happening in warfare. I think Europe gets this and is far, far more confident that it can defend itself with Ukraine's help, not the US's.
They won't say it openly, the NATO figleaf is useful for now.
