Arguments against a united Ireland primarily come from the perspective of Unionists in Northern Ireland, who wish to remain part of the United Kingdom, and from concerns regarding the economic, political, and social changes that would follow reunification.
Here are the main arguments against a united Ireland:
1. Political and Identity Concerns for Unionists
* Loss of British Identity and Heritage: For Unionists, who are predominantly Protestant and have a strong British identity and ancestry, unification would mean losing their status as part of the UK. They argue it would destroy their British identity, which is deeply tied to the Union.
* Minority Status and Decline: Unionists worry about becoming a permanent minority within a larger, predominantly Catholic and nationalist state. They cite the decline of the small Protestant population in the Republic of Ireland since its independence as a point of concern.
* Security and Stability: Some Unionist and other parties argue that a border poll would lead to "months and years of arguing and fighting," potentially destabilising the current peace process and diverting focus from pressing issues like the healthcare service and economy.
* Cultural Changes: Concerns exist over changes to national symbols (flag, anthem), the teaching of history (especially the Troubles), and the status of Northern Ireland's distinct culture and traditions within a new state. Some people oppose any changes to the Republic of Ireland's current laws or constitution to accommodate the North.
2. Economic and Fiscal Challenges
* Cost of Unification (Fiscal Deficit): Northern Ireland currently receives a significant annual subvention (financial support) from the UK government. The Irish state would need to absorb this fiscal deficit. While estimates of the actual inherited deficit vary significantly (some claiming it is much lower than the often-quoted \text{£10}-\text{£14} billion figure), there is a consensus that there would be a substantial initial cost.
* Integration and Public Services: There would be substantial costs involved in integrating and harmonising public services, such as:
* Public Sector Wages and Pensions: Public sector wages in Northern Ireland are, on average, lower than those in the Republic of Ireland, and a united Ireland would likely involve costs for equalising salaries and taking over pensions.
* Healthcare, Education, and Infrastructure: Significant investment would be needed to upgrade and harmonise infrastructure, healthcare, and education systems across the island.
* Overdependence on Public Sector: Northern Ireland's economy is often cited as being over-reliant on the public sector compared to the Republic of Ireland and the rest of the UK. The transition to a new economic model could be disruptive.
3. Practical and Implementation Difficulties
* Complexity of Negotiation and Implementation: The process of unification would require two separate referendums (in the North and the South) and complex negotiations to work out the exact terms, which could be a long and challenging process. Key questions would be whether Northern Ireland would be fully integrated into a unitary Irish state or retain some form of devolved government and institutions.
* Harmonisation of Laws and Regulations: Many laws, regulations, and administrative systems (e.g., taxation, social welfare) would need to be changed in Northern Ireland to match those in the South, which would be a huge administrative and legislative task.
* Disruption to Trade: While unification is often seen as beneficial for all-island trade, some businesses might face disruption in their existing trading relationships with Great Britain.
