I was scribbling like mad on a piece of paper earlier, UCC Sham and I came up with the same as you.
We need 7 points from 9, and we need to beat the Swiss.
If it goes to the wire, ie 4 teams on 18 points, what happens next.
It used to be results between the top 4 that counted for Goal Difference, but that no longer is the case, so if we go to GD -->
Israel, by nature of their two remaining games (Faroes home and away) will be healthier than they are now, which is 11/9, if they match the worst records against the faroes (us) that'll be another 4 goals leaving 15/9 +6.
Swiss have cyprus away, which hasn't been happy hunting ground for anyone, again matching the worst result (by israel, a 2-1 win), that will up their difference from 14/5 to 16/6, still +10, difference staying that way under our assumed all draws scenario.
France have Cyprus at home on the last day, at the moment they are 8/1, +7 goals. If they match the worst result at home to Cyprus (and if they need to score a hatful on the last day, who'll bet against them), Israel beat them 2-1 and Swiss beat them 1-0, so 1-0 to France leaves them at 9/1 or +8
We have Cyprus away, same scenario, worst was israel, 2-1, moving our record from 11/4 to 13/5, +8.
It all comes down to drawing with France and beating the Swiss, hoping the Swiss and French cancel each other out. Swiss need to equal our result in Cypruss to stay ahead in the all draws scenario, while France need to beat our result against Cyprus (but playing at home!). We need to win by 3 goals more than Swiss against Cyprus to get ahead of the Swiss alone, I reckon. Which isn't going to happen.
I swear to Jebus if this goes down the swanny...
