@Philby how did your model hold out on a tough course like that?
Patchy, like many of the players
A 26% loss on the bets I took on, but a few near misses (e.g. 148th ranked Sam Stevens dropped a shot on the final hole to rob me of a tidy Top 20 win)
My model certainly rated the chances of the top 2 higher than the betting markets
Spaun was 26th in my model vs 44th in betting odds
Macintyre was 9th in my model vs 29th in betting odds
The (post-event) analysis from DataGolf below showed that Driving
Accuracy was more important than Distance (which I had anticipated), but I had definitely overweighted the importance of
Approach in my model and probably underweighted the importance of
Around the Green
The DataGolf visual above showed that
putting was less of a differentiator, on an aggregate basis, than the average event. But I did note below that Spaun, Young and Macintye were 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively for SG putting - so, like most events, if you put in an elite putting performance (...and your game doesn't fall apart elsewhere) you're likely to be in the mix come Sunday evening.
Hovland was 2nd tee-to-green but a lowly 55th in putting. Huge opportunity missed for him to pick up his first major.
Morikawa was even more extreme - 1st tee-to-green and 66th putting. So, of those who made the cut, he was literally the best T2G and the worst putting!
