the official betting thread.

Interesting to look at the front-runners early on

Looking at the Serie A top scorer market and was surprised to see Chiesa @ 150/1.

Prior to his injury he put in a couple of strong seasons (~10 goals in 34 appearances in 2 seasons back-to-back) and looked capable of pushing on well as playing a few more minutes.

Juve's squad is light on attacking quality, so if he hits the ground running he'll get plenty of game time.

I appreciate that last season's half season was underwhelming, but that was more about just getting back to match fitness. Also Allegri's style isn't conducive to high scorers.

But I still thought the price was big. More from an each-way perspective (the place part would give you a 37.5/1 shot of him finishing in the top 3).

What do you reckon?

On the Serie A market in general - tough one to call. No value in Osimhen's price, I despise Lautari.

3 that looked value from a stats/odds perspective are likely at the AFCON (El Bilal Toure, Dia & Nzola) and I'm unsure how much to downgrade them on that basis.

For now I've landed on these 3 as value bets from an e/w perspective.

Beto @ 40/1
Giroud @ 28/1
Leao @ 14/1

Giroud in the mix with 4. Leao with 2.

Beto sadly went into retirement at the start of this season.

Chiesa more than holding his own for a 150/1 shot with 3 goals so far.

You can despise Lautaro all you want, the guy has elite actual and expected numbers playing in Serie A for Inter.

And so it came to pass.


Moise Kean has to come into the reckoning if he's going to play. Big IF, I know.

Vlahovic's non-penalty expected numbers were shite last season.

He's showing positive signs.

Mossie has barely taken to the field.
Chiesa was a solid shout alright.

He'll probably level off before long, but I like him as a player so it's another reason to cheet him on.

Dunno what you saw in Beto though.

There were only 2 or 3 guys with higher non-pen xG. Certain starter. 2 double digit seasons back-to-back. At a good age to kick on..Took 1 of their 2 pens last season.

At 40/1 I thought he was value for a place. But we'll never know.

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