the official betting thread.

[Donald Trump]

I just backed Salah at 2.36 anytime in the exchange.

Other than the obvious it's still a toss up between himself and Kane for best finisher in the EPL imho.

Will have a look at your goals angle later Phil.























And back 0-0

 

[Philby]

I just backed Salah at 2.36 anytime in the exchange.

Other than the obvious it's still a toss up between himself and Kane for best finisher in the EPL imho.

In terms of pure finishing I don't think he's at the same level as Kane and the Viking. But he makes up for that by being able to use his pace & movement to get on the end of a high volume of chances. His finishing prowess certainly fell off a cliff early on this season, but seems to be balancing out a bit now.

Below is the group of players who have played 900+ mins and scored 8+ goals this season.

Salah is towards the end of that elite bunch, having underperformed xG by a small amount (~half a goal across the season, not counting penalties).

Interesting to see a fair few attacking mids (e.g. Foden, Maddison, Barnes, Odegaard) and wide attackers (e.g. Martinelli, Saka) in this view and not so many "pure strikers". But that's a factor of there being fewer and fewer of them getting first XI mins these days I guess.

 

[Donald Trump]

VVD has 3.4 xG for the season (Liverpool's 4th highest ) while Ibrahim Konate has 1.1, which seems like a lot, but per 90 VVD is 0.1 and Konate is 0.08.

Leeds have conceded 8 goals from corners this season, a rate of more than 1 every 4 games, which should mean the opposing central defenders become viable bets. VVD is 9.4 on the exchange, while Konate is 13.5 (down from the 14.5 I backed him at). Sky are advertising 15.0 on oddschecker but it's 13.0 on site.

Konate is the one for me m8s.

 

[Farranree Crackpot]

Rodrigo first goal scorer and Leeds to win 19/1….

More money than sense

 

[Donald Trump]

I have a (largely irrational) gut feeling that there's going to be piles of goals in the Leeds-Liverpool game tonight. Big atmosphere, night game, yadda yadda.

There's been an average of 4.8 goals across Leeds' last 5 games. Although a draw would put them 3 points clear of safety, with superior GD, they don't seem to know how to play steady, controlled games.

Liverpool may have recovered some of their attacking mojo against Arsenal and know that if they want to put any kind of pressure on the 4th spot contenders then 3 wins from Leeds, Forest & West Ham are vital.

The exchange makes the goal-line at a nudge over 3 goals.

View attachment 20290

Here are the over/under odds from Betfair. Have sprinkled a few low stakes bets on these lines

over 3.5 @ 2.46
over 4.5 @ 4.4
over 5.5 @ 9.0
over 6.5 @ 21.0
over 7.5 @ 55.0 (Placed an unmatched bet @ 60.0)
over 8.5 @ 150.0 (Placed an unmatched bet @ 170.0)

These all have a chance now.

 

[Philby]

These all have a chance now.

Rotating the front 3 now certainly could throw some cats amongst some pigeons.

Hope the ref plays a vaguely accurate amount of injury time.

 

[Donald Trump]

Rotating the front 3 now certainly could throw some cats amongst some pigeons.

Hope the ref plays a vaguely accurate amount of injury time.

4 got there in the end up to 21.0.

That's a bloody good nights work.

And in a break with Betting thread traditions, you put them up BEFORE the match.

It might catch on.

 

[Donald Trump]

He's back m8s.

My ATM for season 22--23 should start tonight.

And he's 2.4 to score with 365.

Aussie man, oh how I've missed you.

(Click void if player doesn't start to be sure to be sure).

 

[Donald Trump]

Best odds guaranteed is slowly going bang I think m8s.

Bet 365 now offering BOG from 8 am on day of race only. More and more firms doing like wise.

 

[Philby]

4 got there in the end up to 21.0.

That's a bloody good nights work.

Yep and I backed Liverpool in the -2.5 and -3 Asian Handicap markets too.

Just a shame I didn't have the courage of my convictions and stake heavily.

And in a break with Betting thread traditions, you put them up BEFORE the match.

It might catch on.

Dunno. It's harder to win every time that way.