the official betting thread.

[Nollaig O Muracu]

A few years old, but the concepts remain very relevant.

The spread mid-point this year is 5.28.

2022 PDC World Championship – Tournament 170s - Bookie Bashing

At bookiebashing we benchmark off reliable sources. This could be the exchange, the spreads or another bookmakers lines. This allows us to find a value bet when a bookmaker is priced high in a particular market. What happens when all bookmakers seem to be priced high? One of two things: (1) the...

www.bookiebashing.net

Good read, but the one thing that article didn't take into account (opinion) is the rising standards. It has absolutely exploded in the last ten years or so, so much that any top 32 ranked player can rock up on a decent week/weekend and walk away with a major. For years Taylor won most of them, and left Wade to mop up the few he didn't, and then MVG came along and it looked for 5 or 6 years that he was going to continue where Taylor left off.

But around 4 years ago that stopped happening. Firstly MVG dipped, not by much, but by enough, and also the field caught up. It's great for Darts as a sport, to have exciting unpredictable tournaments, as it wasn't like that for a long time.

Saying all that, the cream usually rises (almost always) rises to the top for the World Championship. The last time an outsider did much, he got to the final and got hammered by John Part, then disappeared into oblivion, and I can't even remember his name.

The bet I put up last week for 3 170s and a 9 dart finish at evens, was so good imo, is that the 3 x 170 finishes is almost a gimme, and you're really only betting on a 9 darter which isn't. But evens is a good price for one. (edit, just had a look, it's still there)

 

[Philby]

Anytime goalscorer patent.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Anyone think Liverpool are a lay at 1.37, Sunday?

And if not, at what odds would you think so?

Liverpool should be favourites, maybe as low as 1.5, but a 73% (1.37) likelihood they win that match on Sunday?

Feels wrong to me. To put it in context, Liverpool went off at 2.46 in March (yes yes, I know ? )

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Anyone think Liverpool are a lay at 1.37, Sunday?

And if not, at what odds would you think so?

Liverpool should be favourites, maybe as low as 1.5, but a 73% (1.37) likelihood they win that match on Sunday?

Feels wrong to me. To put it in context, Liverpool went off at 2.46 in March (yes yes, I know ? )

Ordinarily, you'd think so, but United are performing like a mid-table team and the injury list isn't getting shorter yet.

I do have them on my shortlist but will have to see the teams before potentially backing them.

Neco Williams first goal

40/1 Bet365

Should be a decent game tonight, Bill.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Backed Peter Wright 25/1 & Stephen Bunting 40/1 each way for that darting thing with Betfred. I'll send you the bill if both of them don't make the final, Nollaig.

 

[Philby]

Anyone think Liverpool are a lay at 1.37, Sunday?

And if not, at what odds would you think so?

Liverpool should be favourites, maybe as low as 1.5, but a 73% (1.37) likelihood they win that match on Sunday?

Feels wrong to me. To put it in context, Liverpool went off at 2.46 in March (yes yes, I know ? )

IMHO the lay is good value for a few reasons.

A draw is a great result for Man Utd, given absentees and the negative impact a battering would have on ETH's job prospects.

Some benchmark prices in similar situations this season.

- Arsenal (Emirates) were 1.74
- Man City (Old Trafford) were 1.6

Utd had better first XIs available for each, but not wildly so. The biggest gap is quality off the bench, but if Utd don't need a goal on 60mins then they can just roll on subs for pure workmate.

 

[Philby]

Here are 5 picks for each of these two markets across the weekend, based on two models I've been betting & tweaking for a few weeks.

The % number after each is my estimate of how much value the price* is, agnostic to the opposition. This distinction will matter more for shots on target than it will for offsides. As an example, Lo Celso's 26% value vs 16th place Forest may end up stacking up favourablly compared to Fergusons' 36% value vs 2nd place Arsenal.

1+ Offside

Havertz v Brighton @ 7/2 - 34%
Jacob Bruun Larsen vs Everton @ 15/8 - 32%
Adebayo vs Bournemouth @ 11/8 - 29%
Raul Jimenez vs Newcastle @ 5/2 - 26%

1+ Shot on Target

Evan Ferguson vs Arsenal @ 6/5 - 36%
Wilson Odobert vs Everton @ 7/5 - 36%
Giovani Lo Celso vs Forest @ 11/10 - 26%
Adringa vs Arsenal @ 17/10 - 21%
Joachim Anderon vs Man City @ 8/1 - 20% [ edit: now available @ 10/1 with B365 ]

* the price is typically the best price available across the main bookies. I've found one of Skybet, BetVictor & Unibet will typically have the best price for most players in these markets

Where I have some confidence that they'll start I'll back them today to secure the price. Otherwise, I wait for team news. I've had some decent results/luck putting a few of these into doubles/trebles, if they kick off at the same time.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Not sure how easy it would be to get a shot on target from the Spurs' treatment bench to The City Ground, tbphwym8!

 

[Philby]

Not sure how easy it would be to get a shot on target from the Spurs' treatment bench to The City Ground, tbphwym8!

Where there's a will there's a way

If the bookies are offering a price on a player then he makes it into the sausage machine that is my model. Definitely needs the human touch to makes sense of the short/long list it spits out.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Where there's a will there's a way

If the bookies are offering a price on a player then he makes it into the sausage machine that is my model. Definitely needs the human touch to makes sense of the short/long list it spits out.

I know sure, they often offer odds for players who are long term injured.