The next Government

Who will form the next government


  • Total voters
    56
  • Poll closed .
This is the same poll that said this...


Would not be paying much attention to any poll tbh. They have proven even as recently as the refernda and the LE to be way out.
Every single poll by all the big polling companies over the past 12+ months have pointed to the same Govt. being returned and possibly without the Greens.

The recent local and Euro elections confirmed this.

Govt parties are polling 50% or better in every region.

Mary Lou might not even retain her seat in Dublin as their vote has collapsed.

1726751194765.png
 
Every single poll by all the big polling companies over the past 12+ months have pointed to the same Govt. being returned and possibly without the Greens.

The recent local and Euro elections confirmed this.

Govt parties are polling 50% or better in every region.

Mary Lou might not even retain her seat in Dublin as their vote has collapsed.

View attachment 36438
SF have pledged 1bn of Apple money to less well off areas, Needless to say this is in an attempt to regain lost votes in these areas,
Polling very poor at 17% in munster,
 
SF have pledged 1bn of Apple money to less well off areas, Needless to say this is in an attempt to regain lost votes in these areas,
Polling very poor at 17% in munster,
A nonsensical figure plucked out of the air (like all parties do).

Why not €1.1 billion or €0.9 billion?

What is the breakdown for this figure?

This latest poll is grim for Sinn Féin, and its leader, Mary Lou McDonalds. The party has dropped three points to 20 per cent while Mary Lou McDonald has seen her personal satisfaction rating drop by six points since last May.

Sinn Féin is now at its lowest level in a poll for almost seven years, having been far ahead of all other parties at 34 per cent just over a year ago, when Mary Lou McDonalds was the most popular party leader.

Their position is bound to improve anyway as an election campaign will be fought tooth and nail.
 
Incredible that they could elect probably the most unpopular politician in the country as leader lol.

Their vote is non existent outside of Dublin. PbP numbers.

View attachment 36434

Sinn Fein in big trouble in Dublin. Independents on course to fill a decent % of seats.
I said months ago here in relation to the greens that national polls are pointless to gauge their support. They are a Dublin centric party and that is where their support comes from.
 
Every single poll by all the big polling companies over the past 12+ months have pointed to the same Govt. being returned and possibly without the Greens.

The recent local and Euro elections confirmed this.

Govt parties are polling 50% or better in every region.

Mary Lou might not even retain her seat in Dublin as their vote has collapsed.

View attachment 36438

It doesn't matter what every single big polling company says...they all predicted a huge win for both referendums and were way way way out. None of them predicted SFs surge in the last election either.none of them

They're the view of the 1000 or 1500 people they ask, and the questions they're asked at that particular moment. They mean absolutely f. All.

There's only one poll that matters.
 
It doesn't matter what every single big polling company says...they all predicted a huge win for both referendums and were way way way out. None of them predicted SFs surge in the last election either.none of them

They're the view of the 1000 or 1500 people they ask, and the questions they're asked at that particular moment. They mean absolutely f. All.

There's only one poll that matters.
In the week or so leading up to last GE polls found SF level with FF,FG That is why RTE had to invite MLMD to the debate,
 
In the week or so leading up to last GE polls found SF level with FF,FG That is why RTE had to invite MLMD to the debate,

Exactly - final polls before GE were incredibly accurate. Any well conducted poll with big enough sample size will be accurate in that moment in time but that's about it. A poll doesn't predict what's going to happen in 1 month or 3 months time.

Good political analysts will pick up information from a poll and polling trends but that's about it. Analysis in Irish Times poll (referenced above) saying that yes side were ahead overall but behind among voters who had studied the referendum wording, should have been warning to those on yes side. It was obvious that as polling date got closer more people would seek to inform themselves of the issue.

SF have drifted well away from their messaging on immigration in last 12 months based on what they are seeing themselves from polling trends.
Likewise, Trump strategists in USA distancing themselves from strong anti abortion stance that served them well in previous campaigns as enactment of actual laws in meantime has been a positive for pro choice movement with women voters in particular rallying to that side and polling trends have shown that.
 
It doesn't matter what every single big polling company says...they all predicted a huge win for both referendums and were way way way out. None of them predicted SFs surge in the last election either.none of them

They're the view of the 1000 or 1500 people they ask, and the questions they're asked at that particular moment. They mean absolutely f. All.

There's only one poll that matters.
Trumpian nonsense.

2020 polls predicted the Sinn Fein increase in vote:
1726759451202.png

Referendums are only single issue questions and most parties including Sinn Fein supported a "Yes" vote.

If you are using the exact same methodology each and every month as in this case and all other polls taken out in the meantime are very similar should they all simply be ignored?

They also tally with the national polls in the recent local and Euro elections over 3 months ago.

1726759483847.png

First place! If you had suggested it a few weeks ago, you’d have been laughed at – not least by Sinn Féin itself which (understandably) was bracing itself for another difficult election, after significant reverses in recent years. The most important jump for the party is in Dublin, where it goes from 14 to 24 per cent.

The poll was conducted among a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and upwards across 120 sampling points throughout all constituencies. Unlike most other opinion polls, The Irish Times/Ipsos series is conducted through face-to-face sampling; personal in-home interviewing took place between September 14th and September 17th, 2024. The total number of interviews conducted was 1,200. The accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.


Have you any other ideas?
 
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