Just seeing this described as “habitable” on LinkedIn, was dying to engage and too scared to even discuss. Post in question had a bundle of grifters latching on talking about all they were going doing to help with their eco start ups.
earth.org
So to start, this sounds bad. Not a good idea for 7B people largely tied to cities on the coast to go messing with their climate and, yes, it’s us doing it.
However.
The link talks about Europe heating faster than normal but also dire warnings about the AMOC turning off and Europe getting cooler.
So it’s going to get warmer and cooler at the same time?
Some of this stuff is palpable nonsense.
The average annual temperature in London is 11C. The average annual temperature in Bilbao is 14.9C. Simplistic but is Bilbao habitable?
Ok but Bilbao is getting hotter as well.
Average annual temperature in Lisbon is 17.6C. Is Lisbon habitable?
Now eventually you get to places that are only borderline habitable now but some of those might be balanced out by other places getting a more pleasant annual temperature.
The threat and disruption is real, the likelihood of migration is real but the hyperbole around it is unedifying for scientists.
The way this will go imo is biodiversity will take a further hammering (in addition to the direct damage we’ve done for hundreds of years). Humans will change habits, people will vacation less in the south of Spain due to risk of heatwaves. Tourist areas will diminish and or change seasons to earlier in the year. People will likely find summers in the UK and Ireland are more manageable and may vacation at home like the French. You may even find people taking vacations in more temperature parts of Europe to get away from the heat at home. Those trends will be mirrored in where people migrate and settle in long term.
There’s always the risk of runaway warming due to methane deposits underwater taking off but we have eased off on emissions and I think we’ll fall short of doomsday scenarios. Real negative feedback from climate change will help.
www.statista.com
What 2C of Warming Will Look Like | Earth.Org
At 2C of warming, land will warm more than oceans and the Arctic will warm 2-3 times faster than the global average.
earth.org
So to start, this sounds bad. Not a good idea for 7B people largely tied to cities on the coast to go messing with their climate and, yes, it’s us doing it.
However.
The link talks about Europe heating faster than normal but also dire warnings about the AMOC turning off and Europe getting cooler.
So it’s going to get warmer and cooler at the same time?
Some of this stuff is palpable nonsense.
The average annual temperature in London is 11C. The average annual temperature in Bilbao is 14.9C. Simplistic but is Bilbao habitable?
Ok but Bilbao is getting hotter as well.
Average annual temperature in Lisbon is 17.6C. Is Lisbon habitable?
Now eventually you get to places that are only borderline habitable now but some of those might be balanced out by other places getting a more pleasant annual temperature.
The threat and disruption is real, the likelihood of migration is real but the hyperbole around it is unedifying for scientists.
The way this will go imo is biodiversity will take a further hammering (in addition to the direct damage we’ve done for hundreds of years). Humans will change habits, people will vacation less in the south of Spain due to risk of heatwaves. Tourist areas will diminish and or change seasons to earlier in the year. People will likely find summers in the UK and Ireland are more manageable and may vacation at home like the French. You may even find people taking vacations in more temperature parts of Europe to get away from the heat at home. Those trends will be mirrored in where people migrate and settle in long term.
There’s always the risk of runaway warming due to methane deposits underwater taking off but we have eased off on emissions and I think we’ll fall short of doomsday scenarios. Real negative feedback from climate change will help.
Global CO2 emissions by year 1940-2025| Statista
Annual global carbon dioxide emissions have increased by more than 65 percent since 1990 and are now at their highest ever levels.
www.statista.com
