The Action Plan for Housing.

[JimmyBarrySmurph]

I am not disputing those numbers, I am saying that there are multiple developments starting or have just started in Cork that are large sites:

Creamfields - Sept start 606 units
The Railyard - Sept start 217 units
Jacob's Island - Aug start 149 units
Wilton ESB site - planned start early 2026 350 units
Blackpool Redforge - started August 114 units

Put on top of that UCC, Triskel, student accommodation and there appears to be a lot happening. It would be good to know which big developments he is on about that are not going ahead. The only residential one I can think of is O'Callaghan and their Kennedy Quay site. Retail and office developments are dead for now and have been since Covid.

Those numbers are not correct, as we are talking about commencements- you are quoting units with grant of planning.
Those developments have probably 10 year planning permissions.
So, the numbers you are quoting could possibly be commenced anytime over the next 8-10 years, in a piecemeal fashion. Housing schemes are generally built circa 40-100 units per year.
Apartment blocks on the private market are non existent- so what will be built is only the apartments sold to arms of the state for social, affordable or cost rental schemes.

Regardless of opinions here, I’ve provided the cold hard data.
The supply of housing has collapsed.

 

[Meridian]

Those numbers are not correct, as we are talking about commencements- you are quoting units with grant of planning.
Those developments have probably 10 year planning permissions.
So, the numbers you are quoting could possibly be commenced anytime over the next 8-10 years, in a piecemeal fashion. Housing schemes are generally built circa 40-100 units per year.
Apartment blocks on the private market are non existent- so what will be built is only the apartments sold to arms of the state for social, affordable or cost rental schemes.

Regardless of opinions here, I’ve provided the cold hard data.
The supply of housing has collapsed.

Pile driving has commenced at Creamfields.
Works are ongoing at The Railyard.
Jacobs Island, a tower crane was erected there last week.

 

[leesider]

Those numbers are not correct, as we are talking about commencements- you are quoting units with grant of planning.
Those developments have probably 10 year planning permissions.
So, the numbers you are quoting could possibly be commenced anytime over the next 8-10 years, in a piecemeal fashion. Housing schemes are generally built circa 40-100 units per year.
Apartment blocks on the private market are non existent- so what will be built is only the apartments sold to arms of the state for social, affordable or cost rental schemes.

Regardless of opinions here, I’ve provided the cold hard data.
The supply of housing has collapsed.

Your original comment was about your carpenter mentioning that big sites had stalled and weren't going ahead, which they haven't and big sites are not exclusive to residential. As said I would like to know which sites he is on about. I am well aware we have a massive supply problem with housing and not trying to say we don't but I am also very surprised your carpenter is saying things are drying up for him as big sites have stalled.

Does a commencement notice go in for a whole site or only parts though?

The part in bold is a massive problem, all of the apartments I mentioned are social or cost rental, there needs to be more of a mix with people able to buy as well. JCD, to me anyway, is a very reputable developer and he changed the Railyard from apartments to offices and back to apartments and was only able to proceed with apartments when he got funding from the government. There is something seriously wrong when that is the case.

 

[JimmyBarrySmurph]

Pile driving has commenced at Creamfields.
Works are ongoing at The Railyard.
Jacobs Island, a tower crane was erected there last week.

The data is not showing nor is anyone saying that that all construction work has stopped.

If the site has progressed and pile driving has started on Creamfields then I’m sure you know the commencement notice was served over the spring or summer.

I am well aware we have a massive supply problem with housing and not trying to say we don't but I am also very surprised your carpenter is saying things are drying up for him as big sites have stalled.

See the data. The number of house starts is down 82% in the first half of this year!!

I’ve no idea what else you need.

I’ll put it this way.. if you are a teacher and 82% of the schools in the country close.
If you grow vegetables and 82% of the country stop eating veg
If 82% of the multinationals here closed in the next 6 months…
Do you think that’s a problem at all?

 

[Orchard thief]

Yeah they also mention infrastructure and planning as big problems before they start to build and then labour when a site is ready to go. Are you not seeing labour as a big issue in the industry?

It wouldn’t be my biggest issue, no.

My main issue is lack of continuity with work. Developers hitting roadblocks and start dates constantly being pushed back.

The lads I’m with have 400+ staff directly or indirectly. Their aim is to begin a new estate as they are finishing up a current one.

Example: The excavator driver digs the last foundation on Monday of this week and the aim is to have him digging the first foundation in the new estate next week.


They’re finding get the ball rolling years in advance to allow this but planning and infrastructure issues are causing huge problems.

In one estate they commited €15m of their own funds to start and complete housing knowing that they wouldn’t have a suitable irish water connection for 6 months. They decided to keep going so as not to lose subbies and staff.

Banks won’t lend to them in these circumstances so they took on huge risk in the hope that things would improve down the line. I’d 7 figures drawn before they had a single house sold.

They’re finding it harder and harder to keep this continuity going.

All you hear about from those in power is that the housing crisis is the main issue. Government and opposition.

The developers will say “just give us a pipe for water, a pipe for shit, a cable for power and planning permission. We’ll do the rest”

It’s really that simple.

Those in power aren’t keeping their end of the bargain.

 

[Orchard thief]

The data is not showing nor is anyone saying that that all construction work has stopped.

If the site has progressed and pile driving has started on Creamfields then I’m sure you know the commencement notice was served over the spring or summer.

See the data. The number of house starts is down 82% in the first half of this year!!

I’ve no idea what else you need.

I’ll put it this way.. if you are a teacher and 82% of the schools in the country close.
If you grow vegetables and 82% of the country stop eating veg
If 82% of the multinationals here closed in the next 6 months…
Do you think that’s a problem at all?

“there was a significant surge in Ireland's housing commencement notices in 2024, reaching a record 60,243 new homes commenced by year-end, an 84% increase from 2023. This surge was largely a response to government incentives, specifically waivers on development levies and water connection charges, prompting developers to file notices to secure the financial benefits before the measures expired. However, some experts caution that these figures don't always reflect immediate or actual construction activity, as filing a notice is a low-cost way to secure these benefits without immediate building commitment.”

The drop in commencement notices was purely a response to the huge “fake” increase the year previous Jimmy.

Like a fella buying a heap of fags before the budget!!

 

[Outside Roches]

It wouldn’t be my biggest issue, no.

My main issue is lack of continuity with work. Developers hitting roadblocks and start dates constantly being pushed back.

The lads I’m with have 400+ staff directly or indirectly. Their aim is to begin a new estate as they are finishing up a current one.

Example: The excavator driver digs the last foundation on Monday of this week and the aim is to have him digging the first foundation in the new estate next week.


They’re finding get the ball rolling years in advance to allow this but planning and infrastructure issues are causing huge problems.

In one estate they commited €15m of their own funds to start and complete housing knowing that they wouldn’t have a suitable irish water connection for 6 months. They decided to keep going so as not to lose subbies and staff.

Banks won’t lend to them in these circumstances so they took on huge risk in the hope that things would improve down the line. I’d 7 figures drawn before they had a single house sold.

They’re finding it harder and harder to keep this continuity going.

All you hear about from those in power is that the housing crisis is the main issue. Government and opposition.

The developers will say “just give us a pipe for water, a pipe for shit, a cable for power and planning permission. We’ll do the rest”

It’s really that simple.

Those in power aren’t keeping their end of the bargain.

Anything on the State side is a shambles.

Was at a planning meeting for stakeholders and the shit the jobsworths in the planning department were coming out with was beyond belief.

They didn't even know what land they owned themselves.


Irish water are a complete joke outfit. Not fit for purpose.

 

[leesider]

The data is not showing nor is anyone saying that that all construction work has stopped.

If the site has progressed and pile driving has started on Creamfields then I’m sure you know the commencement notice was served over the spring or summer.

See the data. The number of house starts is down 82% in the first half of this year!!

I’ve no idea what else you need.

I’ll put it this way.. if you are a teacher and 82% of the schools in the country close.
If you grow vegetables and 82% of the country stop eating veg
If 82% of the multinationals here closed in the next 6 months…
Do you think that’s a problem at all?

Jesus lad I am not arguing that point with you, and I think Orchard thief has put a bit of perspective on that data anyway.

My interest is in the carpenter’s comment on work drying up because big sites are not going ahead. I personally have not heard of this happening around Cork and have heard the opposite with some big sites being announced as going ahead. Give him a shout back there and ask him which big sites are not going ahead, tell him the proc needs to know!!

 

[leesider]

It wouldn’t be my biggest issue, no.

My main issue is lack of continuity with work. Developers hitting roadblocks and start dates constantly being pushed back.

The lads I’m with have 400+ staff directly or indirectly. Their aim is to begin a new estate as they are finishing up a current one.

Example: The excavator driver digs the last foundation on Monday of this week and the aim is to have him digging the first foundation in the new estate next week.


They’re finding get the ball rolling years in advance to allow this but planning and infrastructure issues are causing huge problems.

In one estate they commited €15m of their own funds to start and complete housing knowing that they wouldn’t have a suitable irish water connection for 6 months. They decided to keep going so as not to lose subbies and staff.

Banks won’t lend to them in these circumstances so they took on huge risk in the hope that things would improve down the line. I’d 7 figures drawn before they had a single house sold.

They’re finding it harder and harder to keep this continuity going.

All you hear about from those in power is that the housing crisis is the main issue. Government and opposition.

The developers will say “just give us a pipe for water, a pipe for shit, a cable for power and planning permission. We’ll do the rest”

It’s really that simple.

Those in power aren’t keeping their end of the bargain.

Was speaking last night with a buddy that is in the construction industry and he echoed that. He said that labour was and can be an issue but that these are the bigger ones. Very frustrating when they are both under the control of the government.

Getting over that would definitely increase the supply of housing but we also need to increase our mix of housing and build more apartments. They look a long way from being viable outside of Dublin without government support.

 

[JimmyBarrySmurph]

My interest is in the carpenter’s comment on work drying up because big sites are not going ahead. I personally have not heard of this happening around Cork

I’m going around in circles am I.. the actual official data which I previously mentioned clearly shows that commencements in Cork are down catastrophically- 80-90%.
I believe some of that is due to a false/artificial bump in the last couple years commencement figures as developers put in commencement notices and “started” to get in on time to qualify for something or avoid new regs or something..

I’m not sure what purpose pub talk serves in this.. sure you’d hear all sorts..
I don’t think I’ll be ringing the carpentry contractor for you!