Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

True but 2022 was not a particularly bad year given most European countries were building up their reserves knowing an embargo/price cap was on the way. Currently they are running a monthly deficit of $5 billion USD. Their emergency wealth fund lost 40 billon USD in 2022. This fund stands at $150 billion USD but there is a big question how much of this are really liquid assets that can be sold?

The Rouble has lost 12% since the price cap/embargo and if they sell more assets the Rouble will plunge even further.

When the Russians are eating each other for the next meal we will see how comfortable Vlad is.

They can get through 2023 perhaps but 2024 unlikely.
And do nukes come into the equation? He has threatened their use.
 
Ua has announced that it is sending military personnel to Poland for training on Leos. It's only a matter of days before the full announcement of supplies.
The Germans will get there in the end just like every decision, Scholz will draw it out.

The energy price cap has worked remarkably well - many observers were sceptical but the Ural Oil price has plunged to about it's production cost. The Russian Economy will be in big trouble by the end of 2023.

William Burns, Head of CIA, was in Kiev recently to brief Ua about Russia's next offensive. This time Ua will listen and act. The Russians will, as usual, throw plenty cannon fodder at this but even the latest effort at recruiting from Jails is failing as word has got out about the survival chances in Ua.

Ua is vulnerable for the next 3 months while the tanks are being shipped so it's ability to withstand the next Russian Offensive is crucial.

It's a shame that the West is so slow about providing arms but better late than never and Ua will have to live with huge casualty levels for the next 3 months.


However, after that, the vastly superior equipment will surely tell and the Russians will be pushed back.
 
Putin’s gamble that he’d turn off the gas and we’d all freeze has backfired spectacularly. Putin has ensured that Europe will never again be dependent on Russian energy. This is an interesting article which explains how Russia is no longer relevant:

 
Interesting how confident you are at predicting the actions of a humiliated, wounded, psychopathic warmongering megalomaniac 🤷‍♂️
If he launched anything Nuclear Russia will be dust in 24 hours without NATO having to resort to respond Nuclear. In any event even if Putin did want to go Nuclear that’s when he would be removed. Going Nuclear would effectively be the end of Russia and those around him know that.
 
If he launched anything Nuclear Russia will be dust in 24 hours without NATO having to resort to respond Nuclear. In any event even if Putin did want to go Nuclear that’s when he would be removed. Going Nuclear would effectively be the end of Russia and those around him know that.
Too risky a move.

He'd have to be 100% the nuke he chooses to launch is in working order (it will launch, stay airborne, it will find it's target and will explode on impact).

But first he had to be 100% his order will be followed through the chain.
 
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