Hey,
Let me put my point of view on the matter (THK not as if I reply to you only!):
Saying "Russified" in the region where majority of the population is Russian speaking is strange to read. OK, they are trying to destroy any signs of Ukraine but it goes very poorly in my opinion. To the point that even the collaborators need to hide from the people and the wanted posters are being posted all over the Kherson.
In additional reports are confirming that Russians are trying to hold to the region but with little luck and being slowly pushed away from there.
The local population is constantly protesting the occupation.
edit: oh and losing Kherson equals no chance for having the Dniepr river free for transporting goods...
Odessa is a must on Russian agenda, without Odessa all their Southern effort is shit. They want to destroy Ukraine's independence and they need to but the country from accessing the sea. To add on top of it, orcs are bombarding bridges connecting Odessa to Moldova, they are stirring up situation with Transnistria. What they did not figured is that no one wants them over there and that Russian supporters left the region already.
Getting Odessa is a must because what was happening during the Maydan. Putin from the very beginning is claiming they need revenge.
Will they capture Odessa? LOL - no.
Yes, they are being pushed back on all front line. The fact Azovstal is not holding Russian forces in that area is only actually making Ukrainian job easier. Russians do not control all the territory there, only the transportation corridors.
They would be ecstatic if they could hold to it, but this will never happen. Why? This would mean defeat for Ukraine. This would also exclude any possible changes to get that land corridor re-taken (this will happen, mark my words).
Russians are concentrating their efforts on Izyum area as this is how they get their supplies from. They are fucked at the moment as Ukrainians are getting more and more on that section. The hurray-massive forces of Russians in Donbas are of shit quality, mostly conscripts from Luganda and Donbabwe forced to join the units. They use rifles model 1914 just to give you an idea. If you look at the map, you will see that Donbas did not move a bit since start as this is defended by seasoned and well fortified Ukrainian troops.
They are simply stuck in Donbass and without air support they are nothing but screwed. On the other hand Ukrainians are getting more and more equipment there.
I can bet for a pint it is a matter of a month.
- The Russian morale does not exist.
- They have zero support from locals
- Their supply lines are stretched there, they rely on supplies from Crimea or Izyum, both can be easily blocked, if Ukrainians cut the Crimea land access off, those guys are fucked big time.
- The Ukrainians are steadily moving forward there. The reason they do not push too much is simple: not to damage their own land and time is on Ukrainian side.
- Russia is trying to do a silent mobilization just two weeks now. Ukrainians are finishing their conscription started in January, the first fully trained units with brand new equipment will join the fights early June. This is absolutely nothing to compare with when it comes to Russian conscripts and their "technika". The earliest Russian troops could join fully trained is September (and they do not have equipment and means to manufacture/repair it).
Russian strategy went back to 1940s, artillery covering fire and moving up with small units. That is why it seems like they gain something, when in fact it is stalemate. It is the game now who will have less loses (Ukrainians are really good in hiding their own loses, but fresh graves in the country side do not lie) in human power as well as who will get new equipment and be trained fast enough to know how to use it.
It is calculated that Ukraine will be able soon to replace almost 60% of their forces in the front line. Russians already lost their tactical number of tanks, have no cruise missiles, drones, they do not exist in the air. Their fully trained replacements as mentioned earlier would hit the front approx. in September. Anything earlier than that is simply Cannon Fodder.
Yeah, I understand that I am not objective here. But I am also a bit of realist too. Knowing what kind of issues are having both of the sides and just by checking field reports it is not as Russian propaganda would like to picture it. It is not as Ukrainian propaganda would like to picture it either but I would really stay away from analysis made by newspapers, they already proven to be shite on many occasions. Stick to two-three professional analysis and take your conclusions from it
