Thanks for the article. It is good to read Applebaum from time to time, she is wife of Sikorski after all
So when it comes to the shells. Rheinmettal alone increased 155mm ammo production from 70k/year pre war to the current 750k/year. This is Germany only. Poland upgraded their lines four-fold and is able to manufacture hundreds of thousands a year too (mostly 155 standard, I cannot find the exact numbers right now).
The "big boys" are Chechia and Bulgaria, both produce more than Pl in both 122 and 155 standard (Czechs are top notch, in my opinion higher standard than the Germans). PL, CZ, SLO, RO and BUL made consortium to coordinate R&D and manufacturing too.
You also need to add Nordics and France.
The issue is not with manufacturing capabilities but contracts for it. In PL lines are working on three shift pattern but mostly to produce for UA.
The issue would be more with rocketry, as it relies on the US systems mostly. NATO uses more rocket artillery than standard one. Also, there is no need for that much shells due to different quality. Ru must shot 20 shells to get the same result as 5 shots in NATO.
The issue was also the A-A ammo but I think this one is sorted too:
In the Nordics, Nammo is to increase production of 155 mm shells, 120 mm tank rounds and rocket motors for AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles
[...]
Europe’s decision to establish local production of Patriot PAC-2 GEM-T surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) at COMLOG (a joint venture between Raytheon and MBDA) is therefore a welcome one, with MBDA’s Bayern-Chemie set to produce the first PAC-2 rocket motors by the end of 2026, returning a capability that was lost in 1996.
[27] Diehl is also working to expand its IRIS-T missile family footprint in Europe, and broke ground on a new facility at Nonnweiler at the end of October 2024, which is expected to be operational by the end of 2025
The full reliance on Americans is a myth. A myth I am hoping that will kick Trump in his arse when Europe will stop counting on American I dustry and simply start doing it here. We have technology (I risk saying even better than Yanks, after all they are actually buying stuff from us recent years) and the power to do it. All we need is clear funding and motivation (the latter provided by putin and Trump).