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Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

I don't think there's any evidence remotely suggesting there might be mass surrenders on the Russian side or even a coup.

There were young conscripts surrendering easily in Kursk but the numbers (1000ish) are small enough, more battle hardened troops on the way to Kursk are far less likely to want or be able to surrender.

Politically Putin runs a tight ship so unless there was an army mutiny it's highly unlikely the destabilizing effect of the UKR mini-incursion will rock the boat enough to even remotely threaten him. The idea that some Oligarchs will turn against Putin and oust him is complete fantasy. Pundits have been suggesting this for the last two years but there's never been a sniff of this aside from Prigozin's very brief journey towards Moscow last summer.

But you never know....
 
The US saying they'll give UKR more long range missiles to possibly hit Russian airbases is definitely designed to heap pressure on Putin.

It's becoming more high stakes for him now. The UKR troops are making shit of airbases in Kursk. If they get hold of longer range weaponry targets like Moscow and bigger military bases become targets. Every successful strike will cost Russian millions and fuck their military building progress.
 
Coach and Six said:
I don't think there's any evidence remotely suggesting there might be mass surrenders on the Russian side or even a coup.

There were young conscripts surrendering easily in Kursk but the numbers (1000ish) are small enough, more battle hardened troops on the way to Kursk are far less likely to want or be able to surrender.

Politically Putin runs a tight ship so unless there was an army mutiny it's highly unlikely the destabilizing effect of the UKR mini-incursion will rock the boat enough to even remotely threaten him. The idea that some Oligarchs will turn against Putin and oust him is complete fantasy. Pundits have been suggesting this for the last two years but there's never been a sniff of this aside from Prigozin's very brief journey towards Moscow last summer.

But you never know....
Click to expand...

not only conscripts are taken.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823737718582526037
 
Coach and Six said:
Looks like the UKRs will stick with roughly what they have now. 30-40km from their own border. They might go another bit but they'd probably be foolish to push too far in.

The 1000 sq kms they've captured is only about 1/30th of Kursk Oblast so perspective is needed. Russia has taken 1/5th of Ukraine.

That said this is about (1) mortifying Putin and making him look weak and a liar to ordinary Russians and (2) pulling RU troops out of Donbass. They've definitely achieved (1) although even if ordinary Russians think he's a bluffer that's a long way from him being replaced.

No evidence on (2) yet.

The Belarusian nutjob aka Putin's useful idiot is suggesting peace talks. Some saying he's saying what Putin wants him to. Hard to know. Both strongmen getting a little sweaty palms in the last week.
Click to expand...

Moving in far enough to cause huge embarrassment to Putin and hopefully divert troops out of Ukraine, while at the same time not moving in so far as to leave their supply lines open to counter attack does indeed seem prudent.
 
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