Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

[outdagap]

300 is the number unless the French suddenly stump up a couple of hundred mirage jets air supremacy unlikely. How many complete tank batallions are left with air support when F16s are effective , not many.

True, I wouldn't expect Ukraine to ever have air supremacy either, but Ukraine being able to attack into Russia to essentially force Russia airfields back further, will hopefully help protect the F16s while they do their thing.

 

[Barry K O Bama]

Looking at the casualty rates and equipment losses that Putin is enduring - You would assume that he wants to capture all of the 4 Oblasts that he's annexed and then negotiate a peace deal.

Again, you would guess that he sees the Ua manpower issue as being the main factor that ultimately forces Zelensky to do a deal.

Putin probably has Xi lined up to push for a peace deal when the time is right.

It's hard to see how Zelensky can give up the 4 oblasts but equally hard to see Putin return them.

Putin will probably not be able to mount effective offensive campaigns after this one but the Ukrainians may not have the manpower to launch a big offensive either.

Is it heading for stalemate or will Western Equipment tip the balance in favour of Ua ?

 

[Stacky]

Looking at the casualty rates and equipment losses that Putin is enduring - You would assume that he wants to capture all of the 4 Oblasts that he's annexed and then negotiate a peace deal.

Again, you would guess that he sees the Ua manpower issue as being the main factor that ultimately forces Zelensky to do a deal.

Putin probably has Xi lined up to push for a peace deal when the time is right.

It's hard to see how Zelensky can give up the 4 oblasts but equally hard to see Putin return them.

Putin will probably not be able to mount effective offensive campaigns after this one but the Ukrainians may not have the manpower to launch a big offensive either.

Is it heading for stalemate or will Western Equipment tip the balance in favour of Ua ?

XI will do nothing as China trades about 60% of its exports to the west and only 1% with Russia.

Putin's strategy of throwing huge numbers of bodies into the frontline after only 1 week of training, old equipment, huge equipment losses and increasingly crippling sanctions is just not sustainable.

Ua as defenders just pick them all off anyway and Russia does not have the resources to launch an effective attack strategy.

 

[Barry K O Bama]

XI will do nothing as China trades about 60% of its exports to the west and only 1% with Russia.

Putin's strategy of throwing huge numbers of bodies into the frontline after only 1 week of training, old equipment, huge equipment losses and increasingly crippling sanctions is just not sustainable.

Ua as defenders just pick them all off anyway and Russia does not have the resources to launch an effective attack strategy.

I agree that Xi won't take any overt actions to help Ru but pushing hard for a peace deal would not result in Western Sanctions.

It's amazing that Putin can sustain these losses for so long. USSR losr 50K men in over 10 yrs in Afghanistan and this caused unrest at home, ultimately leading to withdrawal.

Just shows Putin's absolute control of the Information Space - he's been able to spin this as a victory so far, reporting that Ua casualties are far more than his own.

But I agree with you, it's not sustainable in the medium term - he is recruiting from Africa now but these guy are pretty useless as they have no training or experience. His equipment losses means he'll hit the wall here too, before long.

 

[Stacky]

I agree that Xi won't take any overt actions to help Ru but pushing hard for a peace deal would not result in Western Sanctions.

It's amazing that Putin can sustain these losses for so long. USSR losr 50K men in over 10 yrs in Afghanistan and this caused unrest at home, ultimately leading to withdrawal.

Just shows Putin's absolute control of the Information Space - he's been able to spin this as a victory so far, reporting that Ua casualties are far more than his own.

But I agree with you, it's not sustainable in the medium term - he is recruiting from Africa now but these guy are pretty useless as they have no training or experience. His equipment losses means he'll hit the wall here too, before long.

Pay offs or is you complain you are simply murdered.

Protest is banned in Russia and he fully controls the media and all they do is lie anyway.

You would assume that there are a huge amount of Russians against him and his failed 3-day war.

Just going into companies and taking a few hundred of men to be fed into the mincer and then that company fails to supply the economy is a recepie for disaster as well as spending so much cash on the failed war as it is all for nothing.

The stuff he get from North Korea is sub-standard anyway but he has to fight on as they will come for him at some stage as ultimately he is very weak.

 

[Barry K O Bama]

Pay offs or is you complain you are simply murdered.

Protest is banned in Russia and he fully controls the media and all they do is lie anyway.

You would assume that there are a huge amount of Russians against him and his failed 3-day war.

Just going into companies and taking a few hundred of men to be fed into the mincer and then that company fails to supply the economy is a recepie for disaster as well as spending so much cash on the failed war as it is all for nothing.

The stuff he get from North Korea is sub-standard anyway but he has to fight on as they will come for him at some stage as ultimately he is very weak.

Yes

He's probably a lot weaker than he appears.

He needed the boost of the prisoner exchange. Otherwise, he would not have given Biden/Harris a boost

 

[catcha]

meantime special military operation in the Kursk region (ru) (with sound on)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1820816860561957318

 

[catcha]

So apparently Ukrainians are now 10km deep into russia in Kursk Oblast.

Putin should have dropped a nuclear bomb on Suja (Sudzha?) as part of the defense of the Kursk Oblast against the Ukrainians. Do you know what kind of mind fuck would that be to the whole world? No war game scenario involves russia bombing russia as a means of repelling NATO forces from non-NATO Ukraine.

Akhmat forces (tiktok Chechen special forces) abandoned border positions as per ruNET. The original ru statement that the mighty ru army have repelled Ukrainians was now corrected by russians that they were not. Kremlin does emergency security meeting today, "flying Kremlin" is circling over Moscow.

This country is such a shit show dangerous and unpredictable shit show, so that is why it should be dealt with for good.

 

[Barry K O Bama]

I think Zelensky should annex the Kursk Oblast

 

[Stacky]

It is a bit of a mini Von Schieffle plan and it has taken the Russians by surprise and without fully committing huge numbers UA forces but still being more successful than they had hoped?