After ta fiasco with a hybrid warfare against Baltics and Poland at the border, russians have strengthen their operations more North focusing on Estonia and Finland. Finland is planning to fully close the border, probably at midnight.
Muodollinen vastalause jätettiin maanantaina Suomen Moskovan-suurlähettiläälle.
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Tiedotustilaisuudessa oli läsnä pääministeri Orpon lisäksi rajavartiolaitoksen päällikkö Pasi Kostamovaara. Iltalehti seurasi tiedotustilaisuutta paikan päällä Kuhmon Vartiuksessa.
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Suomen olisi pitänyt katsoa mallia Puolasta ja erityisesti Liettuasta, kriisinhallinnan asiantuntija sanoo.
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The situation at the Ukrainian front is as predicted - stable. The weather is winning right now. Ukrainians have moved some heavy equipment on the left bank of Dnipro river. There are some news about a bit of a panic amongst orcs in the area as the blanket is too short to provide them with supplies and reinforcements.
This is a bit worrying from the geopolitical point of view. Recently US allegedly obtained and shared with the NATO allies the russian plans for attacking Western Europe. US was apparently trying to plant an idea with the orcs to sit for negotiations and russians ignored those. They are using shifted on Israel focus and Western society being worn with Ukrainian situation and increased the propaganda and disinformation operations, as well as for example, they have stored allegedly 400+ missiles in Crimea. There are also some political issues in Ukraine itself caused by the fact they cannot show how successful they are and are unable to use the weapons supplied from the West efficiently (but they can effectively). There are information surfacing that russia was planning stealing and destroying UA grain many months before the invasion. There are more and more links pointing at Palestine situation being 'helped' by russia and Iran. Iran will not be sanctioned to sell ballistic missile systems soon (UN sanction for their nuclear program).
In general it does not look good from the Western point of view in terms of being prepared for potential hot conflict with russia. Some analytics are suggesting that russia seeing their flaws is adapting back to the
cheap but en masse scheme. They are shifting back to manufacturing shit quality tanks (but in large numbers) while NATO would be able to secure a max of 800k troops to defend itself right now. The technological advancement and willingness to fight on the Eastern flank can not be enough without support from countries like Germany or the UK which literally have no army... US would not be able to shift all their assets to Europe knowing that they need to keep an eye on China only looking for a moment. French are blocked with the situation in Africa. The US elections next year would not have much impact on stance of the US in the conflict, apart to potential shitstorm taking place to show which fraction is more capable t defend the West and Murica...
So not being Cassandra here, oh no no no, just flagging the current situation as it is showing through the geopolitical lenses. Interesting twist. Russia is not going to use any nukes etc. but as they are properly fucked with sanctions and inability of cashing on their only commodities (fuels and minerals) are starting to be set against the wall and the looney government is capable to do a lot to keep themselves in the power, as otherwise it will put them into 6 feet deep dumpster.
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so ask me anything