rebel without a caus
I think they will take a hammering everywhere but Crimea. Their ground forces are already hanging on by a thread in my opininon. Resorting to cannon-fodder and missiles. The reason they can hold crimea is its surrounded by sea, and they still have a very strong navy.That's a fairly decent stab at predicting the outcome IMO.
But for Putin to give up everything apart from Crimea would require him to take an absolute hammering this year. The big question is whether he would launch a nuclear strike in Ukraine in such circumstances.
Unfortunately, Ukraine will ultimately have to agree a deal though, or Russia will just forever bombard Ukraine with missiles.
Definitely don't think nukes will be used. For many reasons already well-documented.