Jesus lads, 'tis looking like BREXIT!

[jams]

Mail on Sunday and Sunday Express have greeted the news in their customary measured, nuanced and balanced manner.

I’m feeling betrayed?

 

[How bad boy]

I think we can safely say, today and tomorrow mark the end of Brexit.

So current details from various journalists of what's going to be in the deal:

Fishing rights (particularly important for EU side) agreed until 2038, providing mutual access to waters
SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) alignment agreed in principle but no timeline yet.
UIK will adhere to EU's CBAM (carbon border adjustment mechanism, puts a price on carbon for imported goods) and participate in the EU ETS (emissions trading scheme, which would really help UK's green economy)
Agreement in principle to doing a deal on youth mobility but no deal yet, saying they intend to agree one and rejoin Erasmus.
UK recognises ECJ as enforcer for those deals
UK joining EU defence fund, currently the UK is limited to providing only 35% of any one project.



Consider this to be the first round of negotiations for the UK's reentry to the EU. I very strongly suspect the plan for Labour is to just get full alignment with the EU over this parliament, so that it's a member in all but name. Would mean that the hard work on accession talks will be done in this term, enabling a swifter reentry in the next parliament or two.

And here's a summary of how successful Brexit has been:




Incidentally, if you had stuck "Let's have a million more non-EU people a year if we Brexit" on the side of a bus, I suspect it might have been dismissed as Project Fear...


Between 4-5% cost to GDP, that's £165billion knocked off the economy, costing the UK government approximately £60 billion a year.
Which is somewhat more than the EU annual bill of £8 billion

 

[Dinger]

I think we can safely say, today and tomorrow mark the end of Brexit.

So current details from various journalists of what's going to be in the deal:

Fishing rights (particularly important for EU side) agreed until 2038, providing mutual access to waters
SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) alignment agreed in principle but no timeline yet.
UIK will adhere to EU's CBAM (carbon border adjustment mechanism, puts a price on carbon for imported goods) and participate in the EU ETS (emissions trading scheme, which would really help UK's green economy)
Agreement in principle to doing a deal on youth mobility but no deal yet, saying they intend to agree one and rejoin Erasmus.
UK recognises ECJ as enforcer for those deals
UK joining EU defence fund, currently the UK is limited to providing only 35% of any one project.



Consider this to be the first round of negotiations for the UK's reentry to the EU. I very strongly suspect the plan for Labour is to just get full alignment with the EU over this parliament, so that it's a member in all but name. Would mean that the hard work on accession talks will be done in this term, enabling a swifter reentry in the next parliament or two.

And here's a summary of how successful Brexit has been:
View attachment 42070

View attachment 42071
View attachment 42072
Incidentally, if you had stuck "Let's have a million more non-EU people a year if we Brexit" on the side of a bus, I suspect it might have been dismissed as Project Fear...

View attachment 42073
Between 4-5% cost to GDP, that's £165billion knocked off the economy, costing the UK government approximately £60 billion a year.
Which is somewhat more than the EU annual bill of £8 billion

EU should ask that the signing ceremony be held in a railway carriage in a forest. Maybe near Compiegne?

 

[How bad boy]

EU should ask that the signing ceremony be held in a railway carriage in a forest. Maybe near Compiegne?

They should have a cake for it.

 

[How bad boy]

The british right wing press are losing their mind about this EU deal, here's the headlines from the Daily Express over the past 24 hrs

 

[Meridian]

The UK is now the EU's bitch :

EU and UK reach trade and fishing deal in reset agreement

The EU and UK have reached an agreement to reset relations, which the British Prime Minister has claimed will add nearly £9 billion (€10.6bn) to the UK economy by 2040.

www.rte.ie

 

[How bad boy]

Will be interesting to see what comes out of the UK EU summit this week.

There's expected to be a comprehensive deal, although details are not clear yet.

Probably in the deal are:
Some sort of capped youth mobility scheme

Agreed in principle, but negotiations ongoing, and UK joining Erasmus+

UK citizens getting to use eGates (UK already allowed EU citizens to use them in the UK)

Yep.

Security cooperation deal, UK putting a big chunk of cash into European common security, on return for full involvement in projects.

Yep, more details to come, but at a high level, there will be an official Security & Defence Partnership with schedule of meetings, strategic alignment, etc...
UK will be part of SAFE, so UK defence industry will be able to take full part in projects.

Maybe a Phytosanitary deal, to reduce trade barriers and reduce customs controls

Yep.
"As a result of an SPS agreement, the vast majority of movements of animals, animal products, plants, and plant products between Great Britain and the European Union could be undertaken without SPS certificates and checks.

The SPS agreement would cover sanitary, phytosanitary, food safety and general consumer protection rules applicable to the production, distribution and consumption of agrifood products, the regulation of live animals and pesticides, the rules on organics as well as marketing standards applicable to certain sectors or products."

That's more than I thought there would be. That does help Irish farmers a lot, should reduce the paperwork significantly for exporting to the UK.

Maybe a free trade deal with standards alignment.

Not really

The maximalist version would effectively be a customs union in all but name.

No.

Other things

Already mentioned carbon & emissions trading scheme (this will safe the UK a fortune). Explicitly mentions the ECJ is the final authority on disputes...

UK is also discussing joining the EU's internal electricity market. That'd significantly reduce UK electricity costs and provide a little more resiliency for the EU, due to the UK's large wind power capacity. Massively helps in the expansion of green energy in the UK though.


They're going to discuss mutual recognition of professional qualifications and some sort of business mobility scheme for service suppliers. If this covers trucking, it'd make a significant difference in logistics.

There will be quite a bit of security data sharing, fingerprints, DNA, facial recognition, vehicle data, drugs, migration and smuggling. The latter one would be huge for Starmer if he can get the French to take the people smuggling seriously. The UK are open to joining the Khartoum and Rabat Processes which are the EU's initiatives for protecting borders of north african countries and support for refugees at or near to source in Africa.




All in all, it's a pretty big deal IMO. With the mobility stuff and the SPS agreements, it has the potential to reopen the UK landbridge.

 

[How bad boy]

This is fairly hilarious today:

EU-UK deal latest: Starmer’s Brexit ‘reset’ savaged by Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson labelled Sir Keir Starmer the “orange ball-chewing manacled gimp of Brussels” as he savaged the Prime Minister’s Brexit “reset” deal with the European Union.

www.telegraph.co.uk

The absolute fucking meltdown.

Fun.

 

[douglas eegit]

I'm catching snippets of James o'B on LBC, as much as I tire of him he really did enjoy himself today!

 

[How bad boy]

This is why Brexit happened.