Jesus lads, 'tis looking like BREXIT!

The EU have other considerations now :

I think the EU would be happy enough with at least a few of those points as it's mutually beneficial:

- reach a veterinary agreement with the EU to reduce checks on agri-food trade
The UK hasn't introduced these checks and really never should, I think the EU would agree it'd be sensible to get an agreement here, and I'd be fairly certain that Labour would be happy to guarantee regulatory alignment with EU environmental standards. That's the current blocker to an agreement there.

- They also want a mutual recognition of professional qualifications.
Again, that'd be beneficial for both sides, the biggest blocker was the UK pig headedly disapplying the EU directive on MRPQ as it would require alignment with the EU standards. In some sectors such as engineering, it's on a country by country basis, so there's mutual recognition with Ireland, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands. It's another one of those "what the fuck are you doing, this benefits absolutely nobody" moves by the brexit morons.

- "closer cooperation in areas such as security, innovation and research."
The row back on Horizon has happened, no doubt Euratom is next, again, utterly brainless not to be part of it. Would have thought Erasmus would be another scheme to re-join, that the EU is fairly keen to get the UK back into.
For security, the original deal back in 2018 had the UK retaining access to the Schengen Information Sharing system. They needed to do some fundamental changes to their side and were cocking that up badly. They lost access in 2020, the EU offered some basic access, they said that full access would be contingent on having the ECJ involved, ensuring it's usage is formally aligned with the ECHR and providing free movement to EU citizens. The Tories weren't willing to meet those terms, Labour have far few problems with agreeing to them.
“The UK basically said it was not interested in what the EU suggested and that if they can’t have it then they would rather have nothing. So they are playing hardball,” said one EU official.

“We have opened discussions on this,” said a second EU source. “They were not interested in anything that does not replicate the benefits of SIS II.”

I'd say the basic access is almost certainly going to happen, the EU would like to know more about dodgy brits coming into the EU too.

"Despite this, Rycroft wrote that the government is still seeking access to EU data, referred to as “Phase 2” in the document, and believes an EU proposal for reciprocal access to data on security might be published by the end of this year.

“We now understand the EU Commission proposal may be published in late 2023. If adopted, this approach would offer considerably greater benefit than the previous approach as an EU-wide solution could offer reciprocal, direct and real-time access to security-related alerts between the UK and all EU-member states,” he wrote."



So there's definitely scope for modest improvement that both sides want. Labour are almost certainly going to drive regulatory and legal alignment with the EU, it's unrealistic to see them getting back in within the next parliament (i.e. before 2029), but I can see at least free movement and some sort of comprehensive free trade arrangement, including Single Market and/or Customs Union membership happening within the next 10 years. In the meantime, Labour are almost certainly going to bring the UK back into line with the EU.
 
Time for a quick check-in on polling:
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There's currently a 1% chance of it not being a Labour government.
And that's why Macron is taking time out to meet with Starmer today
 
The measures Britain needs to to take improve its lot are no longer within its control. It can ask the EU for the things it needs to get back on track but that is all. It can no longer demand. The EU will only do what suits its members best (cue howls of protectionist racket). I'm not sure this has sunk in yet. My reading is that Britain is screwed for the foreseeable future. It painted itself into a corner, shot both its feet off and is sitting there sullenly wondering what went wrong. The emerging narrative in the RW press is of "Broken Britain" but still with no insight into who broke it or with any sane/credible ideas to fix it.
 
The measures Britain needs to to take improve its lot are no longer within its control. It can ask the EU for the things it needs to get back on track but that is all. It can no longer demand. The EU will only do what suits its members best (cue howls of protectionist racket). I'm not sure this has sunk in yet. My reading is that Britain is screwed for the foreseeable future. It painted itself into a corner, shot both its feet off and is sitting there sullenly wondering what went wrong. The emerging narrative in the RW press is of "Broken Britain" but still with no insight into who broke it or with any sane/credible ideas to fix it.
Apparently it's Woke that broke it. Genuinely.




 
While I would hope common sense would win out in a rejoin referendum, I feel the potential loss of their precious Sterling may very well make it a no.
Should clarify, if there was some fantasy position where the UK could rejoin on previous terms, then it'd be won.

Having to join Schengen and the Euro would indeed be significantly more challenging.

There is no prospect of the UK rejoining the EU for a long time. Bridges have been burnt, both within the UK and UK-EU relations. The appetite to spend political capital on it isn't there in the EU or the UK either.

As a strong pro-EU person, I somewhat lament Keir Starmer's position on Brexit, but recognise the practical reality it reflects.
If there are doubts about the mild, relatively uncontroversial reforms he's looking to achieve, then him advocating for rejoning now is doing basically nothing but alienating Leave voters and achieving virtually nothing else. Remain voters in the next election are going to vote for whomever will get the Tories out of office, pitching for their votes is preaching to the choirs.

I do see rejoining the EU (or at least SM and CU) being a significant issue in the election after next, if Labour maintain their current position that it's not going to happen, then they'll come under significant pressure from the Greens and Lib Dems.
 
I think the EU would be happy enough with at least a few of those points as it's mutually beneficial:

- reach a veterinary agreement with the EU to reduce checks on agri-food trade
The UK hasn't introduced these checks and really never should, I think the EU would agree it'd be sensible to get an agreement here, and I'd be fairly certain that Labour would be happy to guarantee regulatory alignment with EU environmental standards. That's the current blocker to an agreement there.

- They also want a mutual recognition of professional qualifications.
Again, that'd be beneficial for both sides, the biggest blocker was the UK pig headedly disapplying the EU directive on MRPQ as it would require alignment with the EU standards. In some sectors such as engineering, it's on a country by country basis, so there's mutual recognition with Ireland, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands. It's another one of those "what the fuck are you doing, this benefits absolutely nobody" moves by the brexit morons.

- "closer cooperation in areas such as security, innovation and research."
The row back on Horizon has happened, no doubt Euratom is next, again, utterly brainless not to be part of it. Would have thought Erasmus would be another scheme to re-join, that the EU is fairly keen to get the UK back into.
For security, the original deal back in 2018 had the UK retaining access to the Schengen Information Sharing system. They needed to do some fundamental changes to their side and were cocking that up badly. They lost access in 2020, the EU offered some basic access, they said that full access would be contingent on having the ECJ involved, ensuring it's usage is formally aligned with the ECHR and providing free movement to EU citizens. The Tories weren't willing to meet those terms, Labour have far few problems with agreeing to them.
“The UK basically said it was not interested in what the EU suggested and that if they can’t have it then they would rather have nothing. So they are playing hardball,” said one EU official.

“We have opened discussions on this,” said a second EU source. “They were not interested in anything that does not replicate the benefits of SIS II.”

I'd say the basic access is almost certainly going to happen, the EU would like to know more about dodgy brits coming into the EU too.

"Despite this, Rycroft wrote that the government is still seeking access to EU data, referred to as “Phase 2” in the document, and believes an EU proposal for reciprocal access to data on security might be published by the end of this year.

“We now understand the EU Commission proposal may be published in late 2023. If adopted, this approach would offer considerably greater benefit than the previous approach as an EU-wide solution could offer reciprocal, direct and real-time access to security-related alerts between the UK and all EU-member states,” he wrote."



So there's definitely scope for modest improvement that both sides want. Labour are almost certainly going to drive regulatory and legal alignment with the EU, it's unrealistic to see them getting back in within the next parliament (i.e. before 2029), but I can see at least free movement and some sort of comprehensive free trade arrangement, including Single Market and/or Customs Union membership happening within the next 10 years. In the meantime, Labour are almost certainly going to bring the UK back into line with the EU.
The EU implemented Veterinary Checks on UK exports to the EU but the UK never implemented Veterinary checks on EU exports into the UK and continues to kick this can down the road because it knows to do so will increase the cost of food and may lead to shortages. They are making an exception to the EU on this but under WTO rules other third countries could call foul and ask for similiar terms for access to the UK
 

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