Jesus lads, 'tis looking like BREXIT!

We have long-term planning.
  1. The government has banned gas exploration off our coast
  2. The government opposed an LPG terminal in Foynes - an alternative supply source
  3. The government rejected the plan to use the defunct Kinsale field for storage
That's long term planning - but it's shit long term planning.

It will take a decade to undo the damage that these decisions have caused - and that assumes they will reverse the decisions. Which is by no means certain. Doing so would amount to an admission that they made a huge error.

Incidentally, the Kinsale gas field structure is currently being dismantled - thereby ending the possibility of using that field for storage.

I despair.
In these times we need to use our own resources
 
The 1p (1%) tax cut was initially supposed to happen in 2024, but to gain popularity becuase they gave the high earners a big tax break, they decided to bring it forward by a year. The 2024 tax break was to make them look favourable for the upcoming election (of 2024)
It was all unfunded and swallowed up by inflation and rising interest rates, so it lacked credibility.



At this stage it would not even surprise me if the Bank of England just re-located to the Cayman Islands.
 

The news just gets worse.

For "Blue Wall" seats, they are: "affluent, southern constituencies where the party has traditionally won, but where its support has been slipping in recent years—particularly in response to the party’s positioning on Brexit.1 "

They won all of them in 2019.

"Prime Minister Liz Truss’s approval rating in the Blue Wall registers at -35%. 52% of those in the Blue Wall, including 49% of those who voted Conservative in 2019, say they disapprove of Truss’s performance. Only 17% of respondents approve. "

21% of Tory voters in 2019 say they'd vote Labour in an election, 10% say they won't vote, 22% are don't know.
For Labour, the corresponding numbers are 1%, 0% and 5%.

31% of the people who say they didn't vote in the last election say they'll vote Labour.

"47% of Blue Wall voters say they could see themselves voting tactically for a party other than their first choice in order to ensure a party they dislike does not win in their constituency. 65% of 2019 Liberal Democrat voters say they could see themselves voting tactically in such a way, compared to 60% of 2019 Labour, and 41% of 2019 Conservative voters."


It'd be absolute carnage for the Tories.
 
You know what's fun?

Plugging those numbers, of what was safe Tory seats into ElectoralCalculus (if you're going to do that, you need to adjust for the non-English vote), you get the Tories falling to 3rd largest party:

1665603992539.png


Of course, the true picture is much worse...
 
Starmer must call a VONC.
Make the Tories pin their colours to Truss.
Or get enough to cross the floor.
Too early. If he gets it wrong he risks the Tories rallying around the flag, circling the wagons, etc.

The Tories who want a GE will want a chance to get their ducks in a row first.

Before anything, we need to see what happens Friday first.
 
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