Ivan Yates

[Hallbopping]

Its irrelevant what happened Labour really. The left is and has been hugely fragmented and the likes of the god awful Soc Dems, PBP, Greens etc have all hit labour. To be fair though, Labour have damaged Labour and continue to do so.

It doesnt change in the slightest what's happening FFG over the longer term.

FF and FG have actually suffered for being in power so long. I was only thinking of it this morning; we haven’t had a true change in Government in 15 years and the last was 14 years before that.

A SF led left Government would give FF and FG new life.

 

[deeptek]

FF and FG have actually suffered for being in power so long. I was only thinking of it this morning; we haven’t had a true change in Government in 15 years and the last was 14 years before that.

A SF led left Government would give FF and FG new life.

NOt sure its having power is the issue. Its the decisions they have made in power that are affecting them.

 

[Hallbopping]

NOt sure its having power is the issue. Its the decisions they have made in power that are affecting them.

I’d argue that being in power so long leads a party to be stale and lacking in ambition. A spell in opposition did FF the world of good from 11-20. I concede that the level of achievement since 20 has not been sufficient. FG are in power nearly 16 years at this stage.

 

[El Guapo]

FPTP would require a merger of FF and FG. That’s the point I was addressing.

No it wouldn't..Neither would a merger of FF and FG require FPTP it would just suit a newly formed party with a "naturally" large voting block to have FPTP.

You are conflating the interests of the parties with the interests of the country in having the optimal mechanism for selecting TDs

 

[Hallbopping]

No it wouldn't..Neither would a merger of FF and FG require FPTP it would just suit a newly formed party with a "naturally" large voting block to have FPTP.

You are conflating the interests of the parties with the interests of the country in having the optimal mechanism for selecting TDs

FF and FG are going to do what’s in their interests and it’s in neither party’s interest to merge.

If we did have FPTP it would probably result in a merger. No chance with PRSTV in my opinion.

 

[deeptek]

FF and FG are going to do what’s in their interests

Oh thats a given....all about the party!

 

[Hallbopping]

Oh thats a given....all about the party!

Same with every party. That’s the reality of party politics.

 

[outdagap]

While that maybe the case, its eating into FFG share consistently.
The trend is only going one way for FFG!

That remains to be seen, but at the moment FF are looking to take back more of their soft republican vote from SF, while FG are stagnating under Harris unable for now, to increase vote share. That said, they've 4 years to the next general election.

I'm more interested to see what happens on the left. Labour and SD are making a huge mistake in agreeing anything with SF, and we'll wait for how that unfolds.

 

[deeptek]

That remains to be seen, but at the moment FF are looking to take back more of their soft republican vote from SF

How exactly. What have FF done as regards the North, a united Ireland or anything else. Couldn't see many SF votes going back to FF tbh ...why would they. FF haven't made any effort at all..

 

[Yermon]

There is a big reason. They’d lose seats as a combined party. It would only be in their interests if the left parties merged also. Realistically with PRSTV that won’t happen. A two or three party system would only work with FPTP.

I think both FF and FG realise that they're both in terminal decline compared to where they used to be even a couple of decades ago. All it is likely to take is for them both to be out of power at the same time, maybe the election after next who knows? and then the FF and FG grandees are likely to want to put their past differences harking back 100+ years aside, and coalesce into a large party where they think the sum of the whole will be greater than the sum of the parts.

As long as they continue to take later seats through transfers from each other they'll likely stay apart, but once the rubicon has been crossed, I think their survival gene will kick in and they'll do what they feel is necessary to get back to power. They've supported minority governments; they've called for the other lot to be thrown out only to promptly go into power with them; and lately they practically canvassed on the same ticket. Bit by bit their "differences" are becoming miniscule.

Their reasons for staying apart are dwindling by the day, as older egos disappear one by one. Their time will come.