Island of Ireland is not ready for a unification referendum

[dukeroyale]

Go back to yours.

 

[Heraldo]

A right ruck developing here

 

[outdagap]

There can't be a vote without laying out what unity looks like. There are a ton of undiscussed questions like:

Does Stormont continue as a devolved parliament or do the six counties get completely subsumed into the Republic?

Do all school kids in the north have to learn Irish in school?

Will there be a new flag and anthem?

Nordies, be they open minded prods or on the fence Catholics, need to know what they are voting for. The more concessions you give Unionism the better the chance more of them will vote and ultimately the more stable a UI will be.

Pretending we can have a referendum without a detailed plan being presented to voters first is blinkered bar stool Celtic jersey Republicanism.

Sorry I've been tied up all week and hadn't a chance to respond on the thread before now.

There is nothing in the GFA to layout what unity would look like, and the most likely scenario is that the Unionists wouldn't engage before a vote anyway, but yes there are a ton of questions and no one is talking about the effect on us in the Republic.

Re Stormont, I had originally thought of a federal UI but in reality that would be a disaster in terms of nordies (from either code) wanting to fuck up Dublin. Look at the mess Belgium is in.

The ONE bright point is that Irish would have to go optional, largely due to the weaponisation of the language by republicans in NI. They've poisoned that well. If an agreement was reached to allow it optional in the 6 counties but remain compulsory here, I could see a court challenge to that straightaway.

Of course there would have to be a new flag and anthem, that is LEAST of the problems with a UI. What do republicans want, a UI or a UI where they are free to antagonise the shit out of the already antagonised prods ? If it's the latter then it's even more clear that this is about sticking it to the prods.

Pretending we can have a referendum without a detailed plan being presented to voters first is blinkered bar stool Celtic jersey Republicanism.

In retrospect, the GFA was a fudge too far, a compromise to get the murders to stop. While mostly successful in that, so many open ends were left that it has come back to bite us on the ass, and will do if a BP is called.

 

[outdagap]

I don’t want feck all to do with Unionists. They’d make our lives a misery. We’re grand as we are.

We are grand as we are but it's not just Unionists. I would have thought the same as you, but it may be nordie republicans even moreso, as their terrorist leadership has spun a UI as a land of milk and honey, but the reality is that while unionists are currently hamstrung by SF blocking economic development, they would be free to get on with their lives in a UI where we in the Republic don't give a shit what religion they are.

The net effect is nordie nationalists may well end up as a minority stuck in the land that time forgot. If they had an independent UI, they'd have a 50% stake in a 2 million population. In a UI, (and the project RoI goes to 7m, they'd be a 12% minority in a 9m UI population. They could have Belfast as an EU Capital, equal in status with Dublin.

 

[outdagap]

I must disagree with republicans only having themselves to blame ,moderate unionists are beginning to think and openly discuss the benefits of a 32er quite openly such is the state of progress up there .

However look at all the scum going north to join the anti immigrant marches ,
Look at all the idiots here spreading hate,
Do we really want to invite 1point odd million conservatives into the republic to join these morons .
They would have more real power in a united ireland that they ever had ,
is this what we want ?
Where would ffg end up in this ,
It would be conceivable that the least nimble party would be wiped out ,ff would have to go left ,fg would be paralysed and could become the junior party in a right wing gov dominated by the former unionist block In the north,
The shower funding our dear get them out friends would get down to business trying to get us out of the eu and hence a return to vassaldom all of our own making ,
Once again we will find ourselves 100 years behind and marginalised ,
There is to much more urgent shit going on to let this happen to us now ,it will happen naturally ,
Let’s not push it .

Very few unionists are having that discussion and the reality is that there's no expectation of a BP even under this Labour government, but watch the tension build if that started to change.

There are 12,500 nutjob loyalist paramilitaries in NI, in 2025, being constantly antagonised by republican knucklescrapers, who could be stopped from doing so today, by the Army Council. Republicans have wasted 27 years doing this shit, in the expectation that the Republic would pick up the pieces. There belief was total that they'd fuck their way to a UI so their 50+1 strategy meant that they didn't even have to try convince one unionist to their "cause", as it was only a matter of time before there was a republican majority.

When you say "Do we really want to invite 1point odd million conservatives into the republic to join these morons .", what solution to that are you proposing ?

Of course there would be a political realignment, that would be inevitable, but you would more than likely see the middle class coalesce far faster than the poor and working class, where they've been fed a diet of republican/loyalist horseshit for generations. However within that, those of us who don't want to go back to the old days of religion destroying our country, will be facing a bigger religious nutjob brigade.

I actually think FF and FG will do rather well out of a UI, as moderate middle class unionists and middle class farmers would more likely align with FG, while (unfortunately) no one does retail politics as well as FF.

All said, there is too much sectarianism going on in NI and it would be too costly a move by us in the Republic, to touch them. They're nowhere ready.

But even aside from all that, have you considered the effect of a UI on Cork ? We would be in a diminished position, in a UI, effectively demoted to a Limerick or Galway, behind Belfast and Dublin. It is not in our, or our kids interests.

 

[outdagap]

This might work too ?

 

[outdagap]

I assume in a United Ireland at the beginning at least you probably just have Britain and Ireland basically swapping places in the current post GFA arrangement?

I mean, it'd be hard to justify anything else really.

No, I don't think that's even a runner, unionists (if they even engage) would demand certainty, and the problem we need to think about is, the adverse effect of those of us in the Republic (ie what we would lose), and what a RoI government would hand over in the event of placating unionists as well as nordie nationalists.

People here in the Republic have given zero or little thought as to the effect it would have on themselves and their kids future.

 

[outdagap]

I don't think Stormont necessarily do anything right now tbh, they've passed 10 bills in 2 years, 8 of which came from the UK anyway, so it was a copy-paste, then one reversal and one budget.

The City council in Cork is a Mickey Mouse operation, and while people here don't like the council, it's also true that the council do a lot more up north.

So you have big local government, in each ward, and a failing central government where nothing gets done.

Down south it's fair to say you have the opposite.




Maybe give them the option of Ulster scotts?

I don't think forcing kids to learn Irish is something we should do tbh.

What would be more important to me, is that every child get's the opportunity to do Irish in school.



I mean, the flag of the four provinces should get a shout, it's class.

Our anthem is a bit meh, most people can get half way through it, if we need to include a flute section then I'm okay with that.


Great post by the way, m8.

Bear in mind in NI rates (NI council tax) is higher than the property tax raised here. The average rate in NI is £1,200 sterling, obviously higher in the city that in the country so they can afford to spend more on services.

The best way forward is to make ALL subjects completely option in secondary school at least, maybe even up to JC.

The flag and the anthem is only red meat to those educationally challenged, it's a red herring, if I'm allowed to mix my protein sources....

 

[outdagap]

It's a hardening of stances on the two extremes.

Most Unionists I talk to would entertain a chat about a UI, a few would be dead for it.

The UK is really fucked, some of the long term problems there are setting in here too.

I haven't met many of the crazy republicans or Loyalists that people talk about, largely because it really is a small minority who make all the noise.

One on one, I'm sure people can engage without a fight, though there is no prospect currently of a BP, so tensions aren't raised. It was a small minority also who murdered and maimed people.

 

[outdagap]

One benefit would be on trade and the whole brexit mess.we coukd market Ireland as a separate entity to the uk , no quasi trade restrictions between north and south anymore , also i guess it would help in efforts to offer a more effective control over our own borders .

We are, economically, doing great in the Republic, and we have as much interaction with NI as we want, without having to deal with any of the downsides. There's no need to endanger that, while all the benefits would flow to the nordies.