I think you posted another David McWilliams link on another thread which mentions wage rates and that the middle class in the US became wealthier when immigration was low between the 1930's and 1990's so it ties in with the above and what I was going to comment on.
He mentions about the critical skills list but I think it needs a bit more analysis because he also mentions at the start that immigrants are critical to farming as I am sure they are critical to construction, but neither of these sectors have anyone beyond engineers on the critical skills list.
So first it would be good to know what jobs are immigrants now taking, especially those not on the critical skills list?/
My second point depends on the answer to the first point which is about wages. If immigrants are taking low paying jobs then presumably a larger labour force available drives down wages but at the same time aren't we at full employment so shouldn't that be driving up wages? If you stop immigrants coming in to do these jobs are the Irish going to take them on? And I suppose that really can't be answered until you know what types of jobs immigrants are taking up in the first place.
It would be good to understand the economic implications of a reduction in immigration beyond that wages should rise.
Btw the economist Thomas Picketty basically said about capitalism that the easiest way for an economy to grow is through population increase........maybe we need to change how our economies work!
The below is AI generated but shows wage growth adjusted for inflation, immigration, GDP growth between 1930 and now in the US:
View attachment 52962
- Real wages roughly doubled-plus between 1930 and 1970, rising from 100 to about 254.
- Real wage growth then largely stalled: the index was around 258 in 1980, 239 in 1990, and 234 in 2000.
- By 2025, real wages were about 2.5× their 1930 level.
- Meanwhile, real GDP increased roughly 22×, and the foreign-born population roughly 3.7×.
- The particularly interesting period is 1970–2025: immigration increased dramatically while real manufacturing wages showed relatively little net growth. That correlation, however, does not by itself establish that immigration caused weak wage growth; productivity, technology, globalization, labor-market institutions, demographics and the changing composition of U.S. employment also matter.
www.bbc.com
