You completely left out supply shortages in labour due to covid.Supply shortage in commodities explains only some of it IMO.
As an example, while oil is relatively high, it's still in and around the price it was between about 2011 - 2014, which adjusted for inflation was significantly higher.
Of course they could create blips, but I think there are too many other indicators of a different overall root cause.
House price inflation is a good one:
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You can see that ahead of the crisis, house price inflation had basically halted, but as things opened back up, it skyrocketed.
As for Stagflation, I believe it's something to do with this:
The UK had a 1% drop in labour force participation, but that was 2020-2021, 2021-2022 is broadly static and it's not as low as it was in 2018, so I'm not convinced there's a huge impact on inflation there: https://tradingeconomics.com/united...ngdom averaged 76.78,percent in March of 1983.You completely left out supply shortages in labour due to covid.
For industries that shut down or where they experienced a significant downdown, many of these workers either reached retirement age or simply never returned, replacing these takes time and as a result there has been wage pressure and hence resultant inflationary pressures, think truck drivers, port workers.
Also I'm sure a lot of machinery that would have become obsolete over the two years of covid needs to be replaced right now as opposed to a gradual replacement if covid never happened, again putting upward pressure on prices. And just on trade itself the ending of covid or at the very least covid restrictions means the pent up demand created by this means all industries are competing to get their products to market as soon as possible thus container costs, shipping costs have all sky rocketed.
No need to even mention what is happening to food prices due to the Russian Ukraine situation.
Paywalled but I agree a recession is probably coming in some advanced economiesThe idea that an outright recession can be avoided as interest rates rise to tackle inflation and the China cushion deflates may be wishful thinking by the IMF.www.afr.com