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Cork Hurlers - Part 2

Matlock said:
We are either the strongest or second strongest of the teams in the AI series, and Offaly are the weakest.

Could they beat us? Of course. But it would be a bigger upset than the Dubs beating Limerick last year.
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That’s it.. it’s really not that difficult to understand!

Cape Verde got a result against Spain today, upsets are not impossible.. but it will be a catastrophic result for us if we don’t see this one out
 
Dick Holder said:
Lads, where's all the supreme confidence we'll beat Offaly coming from? I get that we're favourites, but certainties? This is an Offaly team full of underage AI medals. If they were from Tipp or KK, they'd be marked down as 'up and coming.' They've drawn with Dublin and KK and beaten Wexford. Their only defeat was an 11 point trimming by Galway, in Pearse Stadium. Their three results since then have been impressive.

This will be their biggest day out yet. The large crowd will probably bring out the best in them, and if they can hang in, they'll fancy our lads as 'flaky' if the pressure is on coming down the straight. The only thing bad about Offaly this year was their league performance and they operated through most of that with a string of injuries that's comparable to the one we have now! Even when we met them in the Park, they were handy enough in the first half, and as far as I remember, they're nothing to play for having been relegated already.

So for anybody who's completely convinced that we cannot lose this, could you explain why?
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Don't be ridiculous.
There is nobody convinced "we cannot lose".
Of course we can, it's a possibility.
How probable is it though?
Not highly.
If you want to convince yourself that there's a high probability that Offaly can beat us then you must be suggesting that Offaly's defence can hold us to a total of about 23 or 24, which over the course of the Munster campaign only Limerick managed to do in the final, in biblical conditions in PuC.
And that in their turn they will score 25 plus against us...
Over the course of the championship only Limerick has managed that combination.

I just don't see Offaly being at Limerick levels of intensity in defence whilst forcing us to concede more than the median that we've conceded in championship, not if we have 15 men on the pitch.

Can they make it uncomfortable for us for a long time in the game?
For sure, 100% and there are deffo enough faint hearted Cork fans to moan, groan and fall silent if we're not 3 or 4 goals up at HT.

For me the only way Offaly can pull off a shock is for us to be further impacted by injuries to key players combined with a black card/red card scenario.
 
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Dick Holder said:
Lads, where's all the supreme confidence we'll beat Offaly coming from? I get that we're favourites, but certainties? This is an Offaly team full of underage AI medals. If they were from Tipp or KK, they'd be marked down as 'up and coming.' They've drawn with Dublin and KK and beaten Wexford. Their only defeat was an 11 point trimming by Galway, in Pearse Stadium. Their three results since then have been impressive.

This will be their biggest day out yet. The large crowd will probably bring out the best in them, and if they can hang in, they'll fancy our lads as 'flaky' if the pressure is on coming down the straight. The only thing bad about Offaly this year was their league performance and they operated through most of that with a string of injuries that's comparable to the one we have now! Even when we met them in the Park, they were handy enough in the first half, and as far as I remember, they're nothing to play for having been relegated already.

So for anybody who's completely convinced that we cannot lose this, could you explain why?
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Iirc (and do correct me if I'm wrong), you also talked up the Offaly threat two years ago. Cork won that match by nine points, I think.

Offaly had a poor league overall, although your point about their injuries has merit. They had nothing to play for v Cork, but nor did Cork, and they ended up shipping a hiding. As for their results since Salthill, they drew at home to a KK team who, let's be honest, had a poor season (and who shot the world of wides in that match). They beat Wexford convincingly for a finish, but it was close enough until the black card penalty, and Wexford were also hit badly by injuries during that match (plus they also had a stinker of a season). Kildare were already relegated, so I would read little enough into that match.

Offaly have been one of the hurling stories of the year, and few would have expected them to get out of Leinster. But in all honesty, the standard of the Leinster matches I have seen hasn't been up to much. Cork deserve to be very strong favourites.
 
If the weather is good then I’d predict a high scoring match by both teams. The 2024 match totals were 37 to 28 in favour of Cork. From memory Offaly got 2 late goals that day to maybe put a gloss on the score, but they have some good forwards who have improved since then. Albeit they’re now missing their captain Charlie Mitchell. It’s keeping the score down at the other end that means they’re not really contenders to win a Leinster.
 
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