Cork Hurlers - Part 2

[shergar]

Wouldn't pay any attention to that mouthy clown.

I have come around to him. He is mouthy but he doesn’t tend to have an agenda which is rare

 

[Crusty Ring]

Wouldn't pay any attention to that mouthy clown.

I’d say he probably knows a thing or two about IC level goal keeping

 

[Matlock]

Wouldn't pay any attention to that mouthy clown.

Fair enough. Given that he's a AI winning GK, and a good analyst, I think his view on a goalies performance is worth hearing

 

[imigrant]

Fair enough. Given that he's a AI winning GK, and a good analyst, I think his view on a goalies performance is worth hearing

Albeit off the bench !! Agree though the perspective is good. Cummins also gives good reads on the position (when he is not discussing "the Breeze").

 

[Barry K O Bama]

Pa Collins needs to get a lot of credit for his performance yesterday.

Made a few great saves and distribution and positioning was solid all day although a lot of the puck outs were short.

He gets a lot of shit on here so only fair to acknowledge his performance.

I really like how mean this team have been with conceding goals in this championship, it’s an area a lot of us highlighted needed improvement at the start of the year if Cork were to be successful this year.

Ben faced a few obvious challenges :-

Addressing the mental scars from July.

Tightening up the defensive structure

Finding a few new players

Replace Hoggy & Deccie in free taking.

Toughen up our approach

Counter Limerick 'tackling'

Get the most from players like Connolly & Collins

Then a new challenge - replacing his FB

Ben has been very successful so far.

He was very direct and said that he is happy with the 3 wins but sees a lot of areas that need improvement
Most would agree. What are the main areas that need improvement ?

Free taking is not at the level we will need - Connolly is doing OK but Tim is not doing well.

We might need to be more clinical in putting teams away - Tipp, Limerick and Waterford all stayed in the game when we were dominating possession and creating opportunities. That's some thing that will be probably getting attention.

BW is a generational talent but needs to be protected. He played a full game while injured in the U20 MF. That isn't good.

Duds and Barrett aren't yet firing on all cylinders - we need both at top form to win an AI.

The biggest challenge facing Ben will be to topple Limerick, when it really counts. They seem to be getting back to the levels of their AI wins - it will take something special from any other side to defeat them. We are probably as well equipped as anyone to do that.

 

[Barry K O Bama]

Fair enough. Given that he's a AI winning GK, and a good analyst, I think his view on a goalies performance is worth hearing

It takes a lot of time to listen to all of them but it's great to have the opportunity to get insight from lads that have played at such a high level.
Skehill, Murphy, Mullane, Hoggy, Cusack and Canning are all very entertaining and come up with some great angles. (Seamus Hickey does some great stuff on tactics and set up)

Skehill is my favourite - he calls everything directly as he sees it and he doesn't seem to be bothered if some of his remarks won't go down well in some quarters.

 

[ThatFella]

Pa Collins needs to get a lot of credit for his performance yesterday.

Made a few great saves and distribution and positioning was solid all day although a lot of the puck outs were short.

He gets a lot of shit on here so only fair to acknowledge his performance.

I really like how mean this team have been with conceding goals in this championship, it’s an area a lot of us highlighted needed improvement at the start of the year if Cork were to be successful this year.

Spot on - when he makes a mistake or there's 10 plus pages of nonsence.
When Collins is on top of his game with little to no mistakes he is our man. Those 2 stand out saves alone.

 

[Postman5000]

It takes a lot of time to listen to all of them but it's great to have the opportunity to get insight from lads that have played at such a high level.
Skehill, Murphy, Mullane, Hoggy, Cusack and Canning are all very entertaining and come up with some great angles. (Seamus Hickey does some great stuff on tactics and set up)

Skehill is my favourite - he calls everything directly as he sees it and he doesn't seem to be bothered if some of his remarks won't go down well in some quarters.

Skehill was fairly bullish that cork would win their first 2 championship games aswell. He was bang on the money.

 

[CorkLiam1999]

If Clare & Limerick win next week then the 3 qualifiers from Munster will be known before the last round of matches. All that will be to play for is Munster final slots which will make the thing a bit of a damp squip.

Possible scenario:

• Cork finish on 6 points
• Clare reach 6 points (By beating Tipp & Cork)
• Limerick also reach 6 points (By beating Waterford & Tipp)

Then it goes to score difference tie-break

But:

• Cork currently have +10
• Clare are –9 (big disadvantage)

That leaves Cork in a very strong tie-break position

What needs to happen for Cork not to reach the Munster Final?​

Clare must:​

• Beat Tipp and Cork
• Win both by big margins

Limerick must:​

• Win both games (likely enough)

AND crucially:​

Clare must swing the score difference massively

Example elimination scenario (rough numbers)​

Let’s say:

• Clare beat Tipp by +6
• Clare beat Cork by +8

Clare improve from –9 to roughly +5
If Cork lose by 8:

• Cork drop from +10 → roughly +2

If Limerick keep winning:

• Likely finish +15 or higher

---

Final standings in that scenario:​

Team Points Score Diff

Limerick 6 +15
Clare 6 +5
Cork 6 +2

---

Probability estimate​

Let’s break it down realistically:

1. Probability Cork avoid defeat vs Clare​

(Home game, unbeaten, strong form)

~70–75%

---

2. If they lose (~25–30% chance)​

• Still a decent chance via tie-breaks
• Clare need a perfect finish AND big scoring swing

~40% chance Cork still qualify in this scenario

---

Final calculated probability​

Combining both:

• Direct qualification: ~72%
• Lose but still sneak through: ~10–12%

Overall probability Cork reach Munster final:

~88% chance​

---

Bottom line​

• Cork are firm favourites to qualify for Munster Final
• One draw likely seals it
• Even a loss doesn’t end things

The only real danger is a 3-way tie on 6 pts + big score swings

 

[WesternDevil]

Possible scenario:

• Cork finish on 6 points
• Clare reach 6 points (By beating Tipp & Cork)
• Limerick also reach 6 points (By beating Waterford & Tipp)

Then it goes to score difference tie-break

But:

• Cork currently have +10
• Clare are –9 (big disadvantage)

That leaves Cork in a very strong tie-break position

What needs to happen for Cork not to reach the Munster Final?​

Clare must:​

• Beat Tipp and Cork
• Win both by big margins

Limerick must:​

• Win both games (likely enough)

AND crucially:​

Clare must swing the score difference massively

Example elimination scenario (rough numbers)​

Let’s say:

• Clare beat Tipp by +6
• Clare beat Cork by +8

Clare improve from –9 to roughly +5
If Cork lose by 8:

• Cork drop from +10 → roughly +2

If Limerick keep winning:

• Likely finish +15 or higher

---

Final standings in that scenario:​

Team Points Score Diff

Limerick 6 +15
Clare 6 +5
Cork 6 +2

---

Probability estimate​

Let’s break it down realistically:

1. Probability Cork avoid defeat vs Clare​

(Home game, unbeaten, strong form)

~70–75%

---

2. If they lose (~25–30% chance)​

• Still a decent chance via tie-breaks
• Clare need a perfect finish AND big scoring swing

~40% chance Cork still qualify in this scenario

---

Final calculated probability​

Combining both:

• Direct qualification: ~72%
• Lose but still sneak through: ~10–12%

Overall probability Cork reach Munster final:

~88% chance​

---

Bottom line​

• Cork are firm favourites to qualify for Munster Final
• One draw likely seals it
• Even a loss doesn’t end things

The only real danger is a 3-way tie on 6 pts + big score swings

There was some amount of work put into that I gave up half way Do it again Sat evening and you will be able to compress it more
I am planning on going to the Munster Final between Cork and Limerick