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Analytics in Football - Official Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="Philby" data-source="post: 7137033" data-attributes="member: 1802"><p>Yep, I take your point there. I think he probably chose the raw goals approach as the narrative he was searching for was probably:</p><p></p><p><em>"Who are the players who hugely over/underperform xG...and are heavily in the mix in terms of having chances to score"</em></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I don't ever recall Messi being poor at free kicks. His style of striking the ball is very controlled and tends to go for accuracy over pace.</p><p></p><p>As you say, the xG on most free-kicks isn't going to be huge - so any underperformance of xG is unlikely to hurt a players xG efficiency much overall. On the flipside, being an exceptional free-kick taker might be a good way to nudge a player into xG overperformance.</p><p></p><p>Cherry-picking a player who I expected might fit that mould: James Ward-Prowse. His career xG overperformance is pretty much entirely down to his free-kick prowess.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]16627[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>That's not it. Those factors would be baked into the xG - i.e. <em>if Messi really gets a higher % of 'easy' chances then he'd still need to convert them way more efficiently than the average player.</em></p><p></p><p>It's hard to be accurate on cause & effect for xG performance over such a large sample size, but some factors which may in some small part explain Messi's overperformance may be:</p><p></p><p>- He chooses really well when to shoot (or not)</p><p>- He strikes the ball very well. Tends to favour placement over power, but when needed he can put some fizz on it & still retain control. Struggling to remember him fluffing a shot badly</p><p>- More than your average player, he seems to have a good radar for what the keeper is up to (e.g. positioning, body language) etc. which feeds into his shot placement decisions</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Philby, post: 7137033, member: 1802"] Yep, I take your point there. I think he probably chose the raw goals approach as the narrative he was searching for was probably: [I]"Who are the players who hugely over/underperform xG...and are heavily in the mix in terms of having chances to score"[/I] I don't ever recall Messi being poor at free kicks. His style of striking the ball is very controlled and tends to go for accuracy over pace. As you say, the xG on most free-kicks isn't going to be huge - so any underperformance of xG is unlikely to hurt a players xG efficiency much overall. On the flipside, being an exceptional free-kick taker might be a good way to nudge a player into xG overperformance. Cherry-picking a player who I expected might fit that mould: James Ward-Prowse. His career xG overperformance is pretty much entirely down to his free-kick prowess. [ATTACH type="full" alt="1667987993288.png"]16627[/ATTACH] That's not it. Those factors would be baked into the xG - i.e. [I]if Messi really gets a higher % of 'easy' chances then he'd still need to convert them way more efficiently than the average player.[/I] It's hard to be accurate on cause & effect for xG performance over such a large sample size, but some factors which may in some small part explain Messi's overperformance may be: - He chooses really well when to shoot (or not) - He strikes the ball very well. Tends to favour placement over power, but when needed he can put some fizz on it & still retain control. Struggling to remember him fluffing a shot badly - More than your average player, he seems to have a good radar for what the keeper is up to (e.g. positioning, body language) etc. which feeds into his shot placement decisions [/QUOTE]
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