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Analytics in Football - Official Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="doppellanger" data-source="post: 7136779" data-attributes="member: 9822"><p>My quibble wasn't so much the threshold but using raw goals amplifies noise. Yes, it should revert to the mean, but if you think of each chance as an event in a stochastic process, like a random walk, the more chances a player gets, the more the variance widens.</p><p></p><p>Ronaldo has indeed a lower conversion rate than Messi, and apparently he's gotten worse over the years. Messi improved over time, as he did at many other aspects of his game, but back then I'd have thought he was fairly inaccurate. But maybe a free kick outside the box is less than 5% chance of a goal anyway.</p><p></p><p>Maybe Messi outperformed because he usually was one on one against the keeper from inside the box, whereas most players would have defenders blocking from the same position?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="doppellanger, post: 7136779, member: 9822"] My quibble wasn't so much the threshold but using raw goals amplifies noise. Yes, it should revert to the mean, but if you think of each chance as an event in a stochastic process, like a random walk, the more chances a player gets, the more the variance widens. Ronaldo has indeed a lower conversion rate than Messi, and apparently he's gotten worse over the years. Messi improved over time, as he did at many other aspects of his game, but back then I'd have thought he was fairly inaccurate. But maybe a free kick outside the box is less than 5% chance of a goal anyway. Maybe Messi outperformed because he usually was one on one against the keeper from inside the box, whereas most players would have defenders blocking from the same position? [/QUOTE]
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