Analytics in Football - Official Thread

[Philby]

A few interersting live streams today, already underway

 

[Philby]

The year the Premier League woke up to data science

Over the last decade, whenever a club in the Premier League started to over-perform, a journalist will ring me up and ask me about how they…

soccermatics.medium.com

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

This is fascinating.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Wise Man: And yet the percentage of goals scored by defenders from corners has stayed the same and actually gone up this season.
Clever Computer thingY: Exactly Noellie (you are so wise) — that’s the fascinating paradox.


Even though the average number of corners per game has declined over the last five seasons (from ~10.6 in 2020–21 to ~9.5 so far in 2025–26), the percentage of defender goals coming from corners has stayed steady at around 60% and has actually risen to ~64% this season.

Why This Is Happening
• Set‑piece coaching revolution: Nearly every Premier League club now employs specialist set‑piece coaches. They drill routines that maximize the limited number of corners they get.
• Delivery quality: Players like James Ward‑Prowse, Martin Ødegaard, and Trent Alexander‑Arnold consistently deliver pinpoint corners, increasing conversion rates.
• Targeted aerial threats: Clubs deliberately recruit centre‑backs with aerial dominance (Romero, van Dijk, Thiaw, Chalobah) knowing they can be decisive at corners.
• Efficiency over volume: Fewer corners overall, but a higher proportion are designed to produce shots on target.

The Numbers
• 2020–21 to 2024–25: ~55–60% of defender goals came from corners.
• 2025–26 (so far): ~64% of defender goals are from corners — the highest share in recent seasons.
• League trend: Overall corner goals (all players) are down slightly, but defenders’ reliance on corners has increased.

Summary: Despite fewer corners being won per game, defenders are scoring from them more efficiently. Their share of goals from corners has held steady and even risen this season, showing that tactical innovation has offset the decline in raw corner numbers.
Would you like me to plot a chart showing corners per game vs defender corner‑goal percentage across the last five seasons? That would make the contrast between declining corner frequency and rising efficiency really clear.

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Saying all that, it could be just a blip, but I would say the set piece coaching has something to with it. Goals scored by central defenders is at 6% this season in the EPL btw (from ealrier in the chat)>. Could be VAR too I suppose?

 

[Philby]

I think it's largely explained by the shift for many teams towards dogging out games and nicking wins with set pieces (...albeit with a greater degree of inventiveness on set-piece routines).

Can't recall where, but I read this week that set-piece goals are through the roof this season - with 2 or 3 gameweeks equalling the PL record for set-piece goals.

 

[KolaKubes]

I think it's largely explained by the shift for many teams towards dogging out games and nicking wins with set pieces (...albeit with a greater degree of inventiveness on set-piece routines).

Can't recall where, but I read this week that set-piece goals are through the roof this season - with 2 or 3 gameweeks equalling the PL record for set-piece goals.

I heard “pundits” querying how Utd have improved under Amorim while ignoring that we’re second on set pieces scored and up to mid table on ones conceded. Two huge problems in recent years and almost into the start of the season to be honest. It’s critical now unfortunately.

Based on some of the hounding of palace at the weekend, I suspect the videos of Utd players walking around rather than pressing have fallen off as well.

The key for Utd is going to be having far more athletic midfielders which will then allow rotation with the wide centre backs as they dive right into the attack. Thats what the target is. A fit Martinez might be good at this. I feel Yoro might be better centrally but they probably don’t trust him as primary marker/aerial ball winner yet.

 

[Jerno]

𝗞𝗮𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝗺𝗲𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗹 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗼-𝗻𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗖𝗲𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗱𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗢’𝗡𝗲𝗶𝗹𝗹.

“I do love the old school approach to football. I think when you can get a good blend, a good balance, you’ve got something good. And I feel like he’s brought that balance.

“It very much suits the kind of personality I have as well when it comes to football. It’s been an enjoyable time. I think he and all the staff have come and done a terrific job.

“It’s definitely been very difficult circumstances. I think the thing about Martin is, how can you not learn from someone with that much experience?

“And he’s been in this situation so many times before that he's a calm and composed kind of guy.

“And there’s no bull****. He says things as they are. And that’s very refreshing in modern football.

“But I think football, like any time in life, it’s always about learning and always about being better.

“So from my point of view, I always say to any of the lads, you know, you should be absorbing absolutely everything because any kind of experience of that kind of magnitude, you should be learning all the time and I feel like we are.

“I feel personally I’m learning all the time.”