the official betting thread.

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Yeah, looks really good. I'd be all over the lads in the top right quadrant of your graph, but that's just me.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

RIP Doyle Brunson.

Some career in poker. Was playing in Bobby's room in Vegas up to very recently.

Highly recommend the book by his compatriot, Amarillo Slim in a world full of fat people for a fun read on gambling.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

BB

Salah to score
Madison SOT
O 2.5

4.4 With 25% boost on 365

 

[Philby]

Just received this lovely mail from William Hill.

First paragraph starts off really positively. I wonder what they're going to offer me...

Oh.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

BOG seems to be going out the window. SkyBet already done with it.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Only a few of the big firms offer BOG before 8 AM now, not even 365.

888 and Coral off the top of my head are the only two that do it from the previous evening.

Sky scrapped it completely Cloudy?

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Only a few of the big firms offer BOG before 8 AM now, not even 365.

888 and Coral off the top of my head are the only two that do it from the previous evening.

Sky scrapped it completely Cloudy?

I'm fairly sure Sky have scrapped it, with extra places the supposed trade off. They probably do see plenty of action with people arbing those place bets alright though.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Sky do still offer BOG for races they don't offer extra places on. Fair enough, I suppose.

 

[Philby]

Worked on this across the weekend. Let me know what you think guys.

PGA Championship 2023: Who are the value bets?

If we smash the golf statistics up against the Betfair Exchange odds, which golfers jump out as being worth backing…?

medium.com

I thought it might be interesting to track the "steamers" and "drifters" as the betting market hots up before first tee-off tomorrow.

Of the 8 that I personally backed -> 3 haven't moved, 2 have drifted (average drift: 7%) and the remaining steamed in at an average odds change of 23%.



Here's a selection of the rest, at the top & bottom of the pile.

Steamed in more than 10%



Drifted more than 10%

 

[Philby]

Here are 8 of the top 10 steamers mapped on to the graph (extended to 500.0)

Two players don't feature as the model rated them below 2.0

- Woodland 1.5
- Cam Davis 1.83

Interestingly, you could almost draw a line which would span Harris English, Taylor Moore, Justin Rose & Rickie Fowler (...each of which are pretty much the golfers at the frontier - i.e. those which the model rates highest at their odds bracket)

Keegan Bradley didn't make the top 10, but he did steam in by 20%.