the official betting thread.

[Donald Trump]

Usually it's Henderson, when he plays as the nominally right-sided midfielder in a 3. Or, if there's too much ground to make up, Gomez/Konate as right-sided CBs.

With Henderson & Bajcetic both out the line-up is anyone's guess though.

If Klopp sticks with 4-3-3 then the ones he trusts most are Fabinho, Milner & Elliott.

Unless Real score in the first half hour I could see a 4 striker formation (Salah, Jota, Gakpo, Nunez) at some point, if not from the start - with Milner & Fabinho give the enviable task of minding the fort.

Midfielders: Fabinho, Milner, Keita, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Jones, Elliott
Forwards: Firmino, Salah, Jota, Gakpo, Nunez, Carvalho

Scanning through the odds I'd reckon Milner @ 4/1 is the best bet, as he'll probably start and play 65+ mins.

Cheers Phil, I was thinking that maybe I'd wait until it goes in play and see how it develops

 

[Philby]

It was. Absolutely shite payout (although I'll still take it.) I had literal pennies in it, but for the multiplier from my selection I wasn't getting much back.

I suppose it's to be expected when the day was heavy on favoured horses doing well. Maybe Cheltenham with it's lack of true plots, with some expected to do well horse generally placing, isn't the spot to be going in on Tote stuff.

Threw up another one for today. 10p job.

I'm new to these but I could get a taste for them m8s

Am I right in thinking that, once you get a horse placed in all 6 races, the odds of individual horses have no impact on the payout?

And that the only factors which do impact your payout are:

- The "per line" stake you place
- The amount of other punters who also get 6 horses places (...so, in a roundabout way, you do get rewarded for getting high odds horses placed as on average it means that some of the more favoured horses didn't get placed so that's more cash in the pot to be divided amongst the winners)

 

[Two Pour Bore]

I'm new to these but I could get a taste for them m8s

Am I right in thinking that, once you get a horse placed in all 6 races, the odds of individual horses have no impact on the payout?

And that the only factors which do impact your payout are:

- The "per line" stake you place
- The amount of other punters who also get 6 horses places (...so, in a roundabout way, you do get rewarded for getting high odds horses placed as on average it means that some of the more favoured horses didn't get placed so that's more cash in the pot to be divided amongst the winners)

View attachment 19702

That's it. Then the dividend is scaled based on a £1 selection, I think. If you compare the dividend paid out yesterday to some other Cheltenham days you'll see it was ridiculously low. Which is what I was saying about a meet where the outsider value might be low. More people (intuitively) will select the favourites, so when the favourites run true to form and are placing you have to share the total pot with more people, thus lower dividend.

I suppose you could theoretically have everyone include 3 100/1 outsiders in their selection, and all three place, and the dividend would be shite because it's not based on the odds. It's just unlikely that everyone would be sniffing around 100/1 outsiders on the Tote and it not be picked up by the bookies.

 

[Philby]

Another cracking episode. Andrew put up The Real Whacker for the novice chase on Wednesday.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/brown-advisory-novices-chase/winner

Drifted a little to 5/1. Still holds an entry for the Gold Cup and the trainer said over the weekend that they'll make a call (today) after seeing the ground.

Trading at 290 on Betfair for the Gold Cup, so someone must have a high degree of confidence that they'll go for the novice chase instead.

Any idea what time declarations are today (for Weds races)?

The Real Whacker just won the Novices Chase. Went off @ 8/1. Held off Gerri Colombe, who was gaining late on.

 

[Philby]

Fill your boots* with Betway!


























* if you've got small feet

 

[Two Pour Bore]

I have HMS Seahorse in the tipping competition in the 2.50 but I've also backed Riaan e/w. I'd take a 25/1 win over points in the tipping competition, I think.

Based on my day so far none of them will do a fecking thing though.

 

[Browser Brody]

H’on the Dan !!!

 

[Two Pour Bore]

Get fucked the langers. It's even a brit langer.

(Can you tell I'm not doing well today.)

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Is Tony playing up his Energumene winnings on his own team tonight? Unbelievable price on Palace.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Ok, put my bid in at 10.5 and sure enough...