Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

That's a fairly decent stab at predicting the outcome IMO.

But for Putin to give up everything apart from Crimea would require him to take an absolute hammering this year. The big question is whether he would launch a nuclear strike in Ukraine in such circumstances.
I think they will take a hammering everywhere but Crimea. Their ground forces are already hanging on by a thread in my opininon. Resorting to cannon-fodder and missiles. The reason they can hold crimea is its surrounded by sea, and they still have a very strong navy.
Unfortunately, Ukraine will ultimately have to agree a deal though, or Russia will just forever bombard Ukraine with missiles.
Definitely don't think nukes will be used. For many reasons already well-documented.
 
I think they will take a hammering everywhere but Crimea. Their ground forces are already hanging on by a thread in my opininon. Resorting to cannon-fodder and missiles. The reason they can hold crimea is its surrounded by sea, and they still have a very strong navy.
Unfortunately, Ukraine will ultimately have to agree a deal though, or Russia will just forever bombard Ukraine with missiles.
Definitely don't think nukes will be used. For many reasons already well-documented.
Ukraine has seriously effective anti-ship missiles and it is also getting long range missiles from the U.S.

Their navy will just be scrap metal

Reuters writes that the White House is preparing a $2.2 billion military aid package for Ukraine that includes long-range missiles for the first time.
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It's very significant that US is gonna supply long range missiles. Fighter Jets are the remaining piece of the jigsaw.

Ramping up the supply has followed an established pattern at this stage. The urgent request is made by Zelensky, the diplomatic shuttling commences and eventually Germany agrees.

It's been a near miraculous achievement to maintain unity in the Ramstein Coalition with all the diverging views and domestic political considerations. Contrast this to the feeble efforts when Putin annexed Crimea.

The Biden Administration has done a superb job. Managing the nuclear threat was also a gigantic challenge.
Putin's weakness and his paper tiger armed force has allowed the Allies to spell out the consequences of a nuclear action and the back-door diplomacy with Putin's friends India and China has surely delivered a clear message to Putin - He heads a Pariah State vis-a-vis the West and a nuclear strike would extend this to the rest of the world.

India has decent growth and China as the 2nd largest economy can ill afford the economic fall out.

Putin will be desperate for a peace deal by the end of 2023 and will probably have to accept any off-ramp offered to him.

Unfortunately, I'd see Ua's best case scenario as moving back to pre Feb '22 territory.

Ua is in a horrific position but nobody could have anticipated it's military success to date and the level of Western Support - thankful for small mercies
 
It's very significant that US is gonna supply long range missiles.
The question is when. UK will deliver their own faster IMO.
edit: just to add, UK also declared delivering that type of ammo. On one end US papers mention 'start of production' and ETA end of 2023. On the other the list of equipment being sent now does not say what missle system, but consists spares for these, here some fancy graphics also:

M26 and GBU-39/B are on the supply list:

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Attack profile and accuracy comparison:
1675240265149-png.4543706


Volunteers are trying to evacuate the remaining population in Bakhmut:

 
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some other random stuff:

some longer POV of Foreign Legion action against Spetsnaz (seems early autumn):


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One of the elements of Kyiv's air defense is the so-called mobile air defense groups on wheeled vehicles, armed with Stinger or other portable anti-missile systems.

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The ability to knock down bricks with your hand is moderately useful on the frontline:

Left: A squad of volunteers from the Russian Martial Arts Union checks into "the special operation" zone.
Right: Kyokushin Federation head; Sergei Uwickiy slaughtered in a "spec operation."

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U.S. Company Offers Advanced Drones to Ukraine for One Dollar, With Some Costs
Sale of long-range, high-speed Reaper unmanned aircraft would require Biden administration approval

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This one is a cherry on the cake!

These billboards popped in russian towns. It says: Hunt down a Leopard and get a piece of land by the Baikal Lake.

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There has to be some very tense negotiations going on, behind the scenes, between US and Ua about how to win the war this year.

Bakmut type fighting has to be unsustainable, long term for Ua - it's losing 100 plus soldiers per day and Ru is losing probably 5 times that amount. Ru still seems to have huge numbers of artillery units and shells and probably has the industrial capacity to produce at levels that will allow it to keep fighting indefinitely. Russia has always been prepared to throw obscene levels of manpower into the meat grinder and it looks as if little has changed in this regard.

It's been a big achievement for the West to stay backing Ua for a year but you would worry if this can be sustained for longer than another year. Add in the US Election in Nov 2024 with the very real prospect of Trump securing the GOP nomination and it's pretty clear that Ua has to secure victory of sorts in 2023.

It's a case of just in time due to the difficult decision making process in the Ramstein Alliance. There are so many variables that it's impossible to predict the level of success of the Ua Spring/Summer offensives. Ua will prevail if it gets the wherewithall to do so. Let's hope that the Alliance can deliver on time.
 
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The entry of longer range missiles on the Ukrainian side into the war will force Russia to move its logistical supplies further back from the front lines. They will also have to disperse their supplies of fuel and ammunition more widely across the occupied territories. This will make it easier for the Ukrainian armoured divisions to punch holes in the enemy front lines with their new main battle tanks.
 
Ursula von der Lying attempting to grant EU accession to Ukraine, could shit get real? I don't see him backing down and this would be like a custard pie in his face on the world stage
 
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