This market popped up so I had a quick look to see if there's any value jumping out from a betting perspective.
Conclusion: surprise, surprise probably not. If he stays fit, plays every game, takes over on pens** then he'll surely break the 15 goal barrier and has a decent chance to break the 20 goal barrier - but neither appeal odds-wise.
Oddly, the one market which might be worth a speculative punt is the 25+ goals market. It's just above the full-season total (24 goals) in the last 2 seasons, but given the hype/finances involved you may well find teammates are queuing up to lay on goals for him and refs are (consciously or otherwise) motivated to give decisions his way. He probably needs to play in close to all 17 games to break the 15 or 20 goal barrier, so maybe it's worth shooting for the stars on the 25+ market given he odds (25/1).
A few data points
- Games: It's a 30 game season and they have 17 games left to play. They are 1 point clear at the top with a game in hand
- Goals per game: Al-Nassr currently average a notch over 2 games per game
- Top scorers: Anderson Talisca (11 in 11 appearances) is the top scorer currently. Man Utd legem Odion Ighalo is joint second with 8 goals in 12 appearances. Aboubakar only managed 4 in 11 appearances. Ighalo topped the charts with 24 goals in 31* league games last season
- Fixtures: Al-Nassr's final 2 games are against bang average sides & there's a chance that they have the league sown up by then
- Hat-tricks: 2 so far this season, 3 hat-tricks all-season in '21/22 but a massive 14 in '20/21 (including 2 in a month from Batafemi Gomis)
- Penalties: Talisca is on a goal per game despite only having 1 penalty so far. You'd assume Ronaldo will take over penalty-kick duties and he might well find himself on the good side of some kind penalty kick decisions
Ighalo 2021/22: 0.77 goals per game
Talisca 2022/23: 1 goal per game
If Ronaldo played every game:
To hit 15 goals or more he'd need: 0.88 er game
To hit 20 goals or more he'd need: 1.17 per game
To hit 25 goals or more he'd need: 1.47 per game
* he switched teams mid-season
** free-kicks are immaterial as he's woeful at them
