the official betting thread.

[Donald Trump]

I can't think of anyone in their right mind who would take that bet.

Plenty will though. Probably get a lot of action from patriotic punters who only bet on big occasions etc.

I couldn't afford to lay England at 10.0 on the exchange enough to make it worth my while, but If I was wealthy I would lay them all day long.

I don't think 8/1 is that bad for Kane though with the lucky draw the English have gotten yet again. He would well fill his boots in the early stages despite them having little hope in the tournament IMHO>

 

[Philby]

Yep. Kane filled his boots against the group stage dross in 2018. A hat-trick against Iran and 2+ penalties across the tournament and he could still finish top scorer if/when England exit to France in the quarters.

Neymar is my pick of the big boys in terms of value. They don't have an easy group and have potential a tough route to the final - but he'll play every game if fit, takes pens and if it comes to a tie-breaker on assists he'll be better placed than most of the contenders. As big as 17/1 with some bookies.

 

[Donald Trump]

If England had brazils group I'd be all over them to go out on the first round.

 

[Philby]

This week's picks below. 18.5 units staked for approach A vs 21 units for approach B. On reflection, not that wise to have ~15-20% of your bankroll at risk most weekends. If variance bites early then I could easily get wiped out. If this was real world betting I'd aim to cap it at ~10%.

Saturday

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Sunday & Monday

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Very tough week.

Main losses were from backing high odds outsiders: Wolves win @ 8.0 & City/Saints draw @ 10.0

...and laying the Forest/Villa draw @ 3.4

 

[Donald Trump]

The model I bought had an absolute stinker last week. It throws up some absolutely bonkers fair odds. Last weekend it said a fair price for wolves was 4.0 away to Chelsea.

It does spit out the odd big priced winner but it's way to early to judge if that's just variance

 

[Philby]

Cheers Phil, there's a good few of those there I'm not aware of . Only found out Tom Brownlee does the Bashcast this morning on twitter btw.

Great section of this week's Bashcast about using Haaland's scoring antics (and those of the historically highest scoring PL strikers) to more accurately estimate the odds of a player scoring a brace or hat-trick.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

FYI, card-happiest refs tonight are in Leverkusen and Lisbon.

 

[Dmail]

Mulling over an Atletico & Tottenham double.

 

[Dmail]

Mulling over an Atletico & Tottenham double.

€50 down the swanny.
What do you do? Go for a lie down and stew about your loss? Or back Spurs?

 

[Donald Trump]

City are odds on on Sunday.

Feels wrong.