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  #31  
Old 11-03-2019, 11:10 PM
Beamish Beamish is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 6,583
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1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1)

Trends:
11 of 12 winners were 5 or 6 years old
10/12 won on their last time out
9/12 ran within 59 days
11/12 had 2 wins over 15 - 17f
10/12 had 4+ runs over hurdles
10/12 Rated 142+

Selections:
Not sure of the form of the Irish G1s. I really like Angels Breath(9/2), but he may lack the required hardened experience. Elixir de Nutz(8/1) has been consistent, if not workmanlike, throughout the season, but has a likeable attitude and is overpriced, he should in the mix coming up the hill!

2.10 Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Trends:
11 of the last 12 winners were 6 or 7 years old
10/12 won last time out
11/12 have run at Cheltenham before
12/12 have had at least 4 runs over hurdles & 11 of those also had 2 chase runs
10/12 have been rated at least 152
11/12 have won at Grade 1 or 2 level
11/12 have had 3 runs this season

Selections:
Poor renewal, which lost its star in Le Richbourg(whose credentials I doubt regardless!). Glen Forsa(7/2) was very taking last time out against Kalashnikov. I’d rather take Us and Them(16/1) each way of the Irish.

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Trends:
9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
7/12 were in the Top 3 in betting, but only 2 favorites have won
11/12 Rated 130 or higher
10/12 had a minimum of 3 previous Cheltenham runs
9/12 carried 11-3, or less

Selections
The Cheltenham Venn diagram! Horses rated 130+ but carrying less than 11-4 perform best on trends. Coo Star Sivola(10/1) loves the festival and Flying Angel (33/1) at an each way price should run well!

3.30 Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

Trends:
10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
11/12 won or placed last time out
9/12 were rated 163 or higher
10/12 were a Grade 1 winner

Selection:
Buveur D’Air returns for the hat trick, however it’s clear now his previous Champion Hurdle were moderate! The allowance the 2 mares get leave him doomed! I expect Apple’s Jade (15/ to win with plenty of authority.

4.10 Mares Hurdle (Grade 1)

Trends:
8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 5 & 7
9/11 were rated 150+
8/11 were a Grade 1 winners

Selections:
The Willie Mullins benefit race. Benie Des Dieux 5/ 6 should win, but I’ll be watching Good Thyne Tara(20/1) whose form as a youngster puts her well up there at a big price.

4.50 Close Brothers Novices’ Chase

Trends:
9 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years old
10/12 carried between 10-11 & 11-8
10/12 have had at least one previous Cheltenham run
11/12 Rated at least 133
12/12 had 3 runs that season
12/12 also had 3 chase runs, of which 9/12 won

Selections:
Trappy race with plenty mapped out for this! A tentative vote goes to Lough Derg Spirit (16/1) and Dell Oro (20/1) at a huge price!

5.30 National Hunt Chase (Grade 2)

Trends
10/12 aged between 6 & 8 years old
9/12 have previously run at Cheltenham
9/12 have had 3 runs over 3 miles, 10/12 with a win over the distance
10/12 Rated 129+
10/12 with 4 runs that season, 9/12 with at least one win

Selections:
A slog or a spectacle depending how the day goes! The shortlist is a long one. Discorama(7/1) is well fancied by the Irish. Jerrysback(10/1) deserves a mention. My final picks would be Le Breuil(10/1) under Jamie Codd and Chef Des Obeux(16/1) is a slogger who should keep plugging away!
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  #32  
Old 11-03-2019, 11:12 PM
RebelOnTheDitch RebelOnTheDitch is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 137
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Happy Cheltenham Eve, make sure to leave some carrots out for Ruby
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  #33  
Old 12-03-2019, 12:23 AM
Cloudy O'Ranieri Cloudy O'Ranieri is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 16,375
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Hills paying 7 (seven) places in the Supreme. Also Bet365 doing a good promotion where you can get a free bet up to €25 on the big race of each day if you place a bet on one of the other Cheltenham races, e.g. I backed Lady Buttons in the Mares' and that qualified me for a free bet on the Champion Hurdle.
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  #34  
Old 12-03-2019, 10:18 AM
SoundMan SoundMan is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 20,745
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OK lads - I know very very little about horse racing. But am meeting some pals on Friday afternoon for some pints and to put down a few bob in order to shout louder at the television as though somehow that's going to make some horse or other run a little bit faster.
Anyways, I would appreciate a pointer or two on who to back on Friday. Not looking for winners necessarily, just ones that'll be worth an each-way bet. Thanks in advance.
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  #35  
Old 12-03-2019, 11:35 AM
dan ball
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoundMan View Post
OK lads - I know very very little about horse racing. But am meeting some pals on Friday afternoon for some pints and to put down a few bob in order to shout louder at the television as though somehow that's going to make some horse or other run a little bit faster.
Anyways, I would appreciate a pointer or two on who to back on Friday. Not looking for winners necessarily, just ones that'll be worth an each-way bet. Thanks in advance.
Al Boum Photo each way in the gold cup given the way the weather is. 20s with Wm Hill
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  #36  
Old 12-03-2019, 11:54 AM
SoundMan SoundMan is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 20,745
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dan ball View Post
Al Boum Photo each way in the gold cup given the way the weather is. 20s with Wm Hill
You're a gent Dan. Ta
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  #37  
Old 12-03-2019, 11:59 AM
dan ball
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoundMan View Post
You're a gent Dan. Ta
We'll see on Friday!

If you have a Bet365 a/c you could put €25 on Sir Erec for the first race (he is a serious aeroplane) and get a free bet for the Gold cup, go €12.50ew on Al Boum Photo. Offer should be available Friday morning.
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  #38  
Old 12-03-2019, 02:41 PM
Carmona Carmona is online now
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 10,637
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Wow, who doubted Willy M., eh!

Hardliner poor there
__________________
"What business doe's a woman have threating a man"

No comment.
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  #39  
Old 12-03-2019, 04:23 PM
Gregory_Mike Gregory_Mike is offline
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 2,393
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Well done Ruby!
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  #40  
Old 12-03-2019, 06:21 PM
greengrass greengrass is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 7,146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beamish View Post
1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1)

Trends:
11 of 12 winners were 5 or 6 years old
10/12 won on their last time out
9/12 ran within 59 days
11/12 had 2 wins over 15 - 17f
10/12 had 4+ runs over hurdles
10/12 Rated 142+

Selections:
Not sure of the form of the Irish G1s. I really like Angels Breath(9/2), but he may lack the required hardened experience. Elixir de Nutz(8/1) has been consistent, if not workmanlike, throughout the season, but has a likeable attitude and is overpriced, he should in the mix coming up the hill!

2.10 Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Trends:
11 of the last 12 winners were 6 or 7 years old
10/12 won last time out
11/12 have run at Cheltenham before
12/12 have had at least 4 runs over hurdles & 11 of those also had 2 chase runs
10/12 have been rated at least 152
11/12 have won at Grade 1 or 2 level
11/12 have had 3 runs this season

Selections:
Poor renewal, which lost its star in Le Richbourg(whose credentials I doubt regardless!). Glen Forsa(7/2) was very taking last time out against Kalashnikov. I’d rather take Us and Them(16/1) each way of the Irish.

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Trends:
9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
7/12 were in the Top 3 in betting, but only 2 favorites have won
11/12 Rated 130 or higher
10/12 had a minimum of 3 previous Cheltenham runs
9/12 carried 11-3, or less

Selections
The Cheltenham Venn diagram! Horses rated 130+ but carrying less than 11-4 perform best on trends. Coo Star Sivola(10/1) loves the festival and Flying Angel (33/1) at an each way price should run well!

3.30 Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

Trends:
10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
11/12 won or placed last time out
9/12 were rated 163 or higher
10/12 were a Grade 1 winner

Selection:
Buveur D’Air returns for the hat trick, however it’s clear now his previous Champion Hurdle were moderate! The allowance the 2 mares get leave him doomed! I expect Apple’s Jade (15/ to win with plenty of authority.

4.10 Mares Hurdle (Grade 1)

Trends:
8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 5 & 7
9/11 were rated 150+
8/11 were a Grade 1 winners

Selections:
The Willie Mullins benefit race. Benie Des Dieux 5/ 6 should win, but I’ll be watching Good Thyne Tara(20/1) whose form as a youngster puts her well up there at a big price.

4.50 Close Brothers Novices’ Chase

Trends:
9 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years old
10/12 carried between 10-11 & 11-8
10/12 have had at least one previous Cheltenham run
11/12 Rated at least 133
12/12 had 3 runs that season
12/12 also had 3 chase runs, of which 9/12 won

Selections:
Trappy race with plenty mapped out for this! A tentative vote goes to Lough Derg Spirit (16/1) and Dell Oro (20/1) at a huge price!

5.30 National Hunt Chase (Grade 2)

Trends
10/12 aged between 6 & 8 years old
9/12 have previously run at Cheltenham
9/12 have had 3 runs over 3 miles, 10/12 with a win over the distance
10/12 Rated 129+
10/12 with 4 runs that season, 9/12 with at least one win

Selections:
A slog or a spectacle depending how the day goes! The shortlist is a long one. Discorama(7/1) is well fancied by the Irish. Jerrysback(10/1) deserves a mention. My final picks would be Le Breuil(10/1) under Jamie Codd and Chef Des Obeux(16/1) is a slogger who should keep plugging away!
Le Breuil saved your bacon there I hope?
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