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Old 01-02-2019, 06:48 AM
How bad boy How bad boy is offline
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Originally Posted by How bad boy View Post
In addition, he has let inflation run rampant*, has squandered oil revenue**, has nationalised, politicised and rendered inefficient the oil sector***.

He has failed to institute reforms that could move it beyond a kleptocratic oil state, and Venezuela's non-oil economy is pathetic.

To give an indication of the waste, oil makes up half of Venezuela's GDP, a percentage that has grown rapidly, while non-oil exports have fallen through the floor, now making up an estimated 0.3% of GDP. Way to go, Hugo.

He has turned Venezuela into a short termist country that is so massively dependent on oil for every single thing they have that there is nothing else to the country.

He has not invested, power outages are still common, vast quantities of government funds are siphoned off by the political class, the poverty reduction efforts are entirely dependent on political patronage.

On current spending paths, Venezuela needs an oil price of over $120 a barrel just to break even on spending. It's the most reckless path, he's basically set up a system where it's spend now, and fuck the future. When you're floating in oil, then spreading the wealth around is easy. But it doesn't last forever and when it does go, then Venezuela is spectacularly screwed. No plans have been made whatsoever for a post oil economy, no savigns pile has been built up, and oil has pushed everything else out.

As the former leader of two attempted military coups, Hugo knew all about suppressing dissent.
He showed great ability to do so while in power, bringing in media laws that are some of the most repressive in the world.

Finally, even if you think Chavez is a good guy (I think he's an incompetent moron who got lucky with the vast oil income, but did little but waste it), he's instituted enough laws to allow him to rule by decree that he's almost guaranteed his selected successor can, and probably will, rule like a dictator.

I see him like Bertie Ahern. If you take a very narrow view of him, then he appears to be a great leader who lead the country through great times with amazing success. Sure didn't Bertie oversee a decade of 10%+ growth a year, the reduction of unemployment to the lowest possible level and leave the country with amazing debt to GDP and an overall surplus?
But the second you take a slightly longer term view, the more it looks like he was a complete and utter unmitigated disaster.

*currently running at over 20% and has been for some time
**Venezuela still has a significant national debt, despite being the fifth largest oil exporter in the world. To put it in context, Ireland had a lower national debt in 2006 than Venezuela does now.
***Production is down by almost 50% since nationalisation, yet employment by PDVSA is up. That is, after a large chunk of the staff were forced out following nationalisation. Additionally, accidents are significantly up, since nationalisation, and that's despite repression of reporting of incidents
It's only the unexpected turn to dictatorship of Maduro that's the problem in Venezuela, Chavez was the good guy, right? Not so much.
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