Fianna Fáil's certain election victory?

[Romeo The Langer]

I was wondering the other day listening to Pat Rabbitte and Enda Kenny if the opposition has any chance at all unless Fianna Fáil has some massive slip up.

One delegate at the Labour conference made a very good political point on national radio when interviewed. He said that the reason he joined Labour was that he wanted to get rid of a political party that was rife with corruption naming: Haughey, Flynn, Ahern, Lawlor and Burke just in case we’d forgotten. It’s a startling list and as of today Ahern still has to ride through major grillings in tribunals regarding payments to politicians in the 1980s and 1990s.


The dogs on the street know that Ahern’s “dig out” from friends is almost certainly a corrupt payment but does Bertie’s roguish personality sit so well with the Irish electorate that we’ll still vote him back in?

The “Celtic Christian” part of Kenny’s recent speech seems to have a certain irony to it. Far from the pagan values of old the Irish people with their traditional Christian values seem to be very quick to forgive an Taoiseach.

So what will it take to knock Fianna Fáil off their almost certain victory?

[Jim Comic]

I was wondering the other day listening to Pat Rabbitte and Enda Kenny if the opposition has any chance at all unless Fianna Fáil has some massive slip up.


if bertie can survive the payments scandal last year then i fear we're stuck with him, they may as well just crown him emperor for life now.


while rabbitte is, i feel, a pretty good performer in the dail enda has all the charisma of a dead sheep so can't see people switching to him in the numbers required to make a major difference

the ony thing that'll get ff/pd's out is a major world recession and do we really want that?

[Taste]

Well corruption hasn't effected the votes bofore and aint gonna start now.

Seems to me that when it comes down to it FF/FG/LAB are all much the same at the end of the day, things are running cosy, none of them are going to go for huge change.

I guess that's how most people feel - things are good and Bertie is an Okay sort.

[Chelsea Hotel #2]

It looks like it's Fianna Fail's to lose. The opposition isn't much cop and has yet to present any meaningful or cogent argument for change. The "we're not Fianna Fail anyway" stuff won't really wash now. The key question is who will partner Fianna Fail in coalition. I was talking to a FF councillor recently who is currently Mayor of his County (not Cork!!) who reckons that the shinners look like good prospects for coalition partners particularly if there is continued progress on the North. I was surprised to hear this.

Ultimately I think that the election will be decided by a range of local issues. It seems that constituency by constituency that a lot of interesting stuff is going on. Lots of local issues that will determine peoples's voting preferences. In this context at any rate Fianna Fail will ship a few blows. Not sure what sort of national picture that will add up to though.

[Taste]

As off the wall they sometimes or mosttimes are, i'd like the Greens, I don't see any other party doing much for the environment - not that I think mayjor change would be done with the Greens in anyway but it would be something, and their transport plan strikes a chord with me.

[doppellanger]

I'd agree with Taste, the Greens have the potential to make gains if they could just come up with some sensible economic policies and not endlessly harping on about the environment.

Labour have sort of painted themselves into a corner with their madcap housing policy and tax cuts and not going into govt with Fianna Fail. Fine Gael as well, by agreeing to a pre-election pact with Labour and their colour-by-numbers policy announcements.

[Dwyer On Fire]

So what will it take to knock Fianna Fáil off their almost certain victory?[/SIZE][/FONT] [/FONT][/SIZE]

Cork airport debt. If things are tight. And lets not pretend Bertie wouldn't shack up with Sinn Fein if the numbers are right. Can't see SF making huge gains though. Coalition with the Greens maybe, although haven't they ruled out going into government with FF?

[mrbobdobalina]

In my experience people don't vote for the government as they do the local candidates. It will, as always, come down to that. So without local polls it is very hard to see where things are, but no doubt FF will be strong. The opposition parties will have to field strong local candidates to knock them out.

[bosco]

3 months ago I was of the mind that the opposition were so hopeless, I'd have little choice but to vote FF/PD again. I could never envisage Enda Kenny as Taoiseach, nor could I imagine how a Labour/FG government could maintain credibility for long enough to survive a full Dáil term. However, the last 2 or 3 months have seen the government (especially FF TDs) show a new, incomprehensible level of arrogance and contempt for the ordinary man, the taxpayer, the voter.

I'm particularly disappointed and feel let down by our local representatives here in Cork. They really have completely lost touch and are now mouthing off the offensive "we know best, ye should be grateful for what ye've got" that previously one only heard from politicians based in the capital.

Here's just some of the areas where Cork (and the rest of the country outside Leinster) has been abandoned in favour of Dublin in the policies and actions of our government:

Infrastructure -- on transport alone, let me rob this from another forum I was just reading:
Just think of the Airport, our €4m railway station upgrade instead of the 9 figure upgrade promised, the decision to remove funding from the Sarsfield and Bandon Rd flyovers, the fact that they haven't even carried out a feasability study on trams here, the 280 reannouncements of the opening of the Midleton railway with a 2008 opening date which changed silently last month to 2010, the shabby treatment of people in Watergrasshill over the toll road, our shambolic bus fleet (sic), the lack of any movement on trans-atlantic flights eventhough even bloody knock now has them, and all of this in transport alone. Compare this with the €15bn or so being spent on projects in the the Greatest City in the World Ever (TM) 165 miles up the road. It is 5 times bigger so give it 5 times more funding (or less if we are serious about counter balances). The ratio on transport funding between dublin and cork must run 100:1 at this stage.

We were promised an independent competitive airport broken free from the shackles of Aer Rianta. We get slapped with a debt-laden airport, still under the thumb of Dublin, who get to keep all the assets and proceeds from the sale of such assets. Martin Cullen calls it "the sale of the century," and we are told we should be thankful the debt isn't higher. Incidentally the government today announced €86 million to be spent on the regional airports, part of the €100m announced under transport 21. How much debt will Cork owe? €100m.

We were promised flyovers over the Sarsfields Rd and Bandon Rd roundabouts in order to ease the traffic congestion on the south ring road. The funding was pulled because the government are prioritising 'inter-urban' routes (read: roads to Dublin) under transport 21.
Remember these flyovers will cost around one tenth of the amount the government just paid to buy out the motorway toll in Dublin. Meanwhile the people of Fermoy and Watergrasshill are putting up with trucks and traffic because the newest toll road in Cork is so expensive.
Fianna Fáil say: Ye should be grateful, sure the toll isn't that dear, the trucks can't be that bad, and you'll have a great road to Dublin in a few years' time.

We were expecting the progression of the Macroom bypass - to replace the worst piece of road on a major inter-urban route from Cork to Killarney. Again, funding withheld while the government prioritises Dublin projects.
Our bus service is a joke, the routes are outdated and inadequate, as is the fleet. Transport 21 announces a multitude of new Luas lines for Dublin and an entire new underground metro system. We get a few pityful and futile white lines painted and are told "look, we gave ye bus lanes, aren't we great, ye should be grateful!"

We were promised a complete redevelopment of the train station, incorporating a new city bus interchange, a realignment of the station to bring access closer to the city centre. We get a lick of paint, a few new signs, and a tent/canopy outside the old bus station. Still no sign that the initial plans will every be followed through. Our precious elected representatives say: Isn't this fantastic! A train every hour to our dear capital city! Once you're there you can see their marvellous train stations! And did we mention the Middleton rail line yet?

We are waiting for the Northern Ring Road project to progress. We are still waiting. Yes, again, it's not a road to Dublin so it will have to go on hold. We're waiting for progress in the redevelopment of the docklands. The government say: Yeah we're all for it lads, best of luck, just don't expect us to do anything about it.

The government's own national spatial strategy recommended the development of urban centres outside Dublin to provide some balance. Cork was the only city to actually decrease in population in the last census, at a time when growth is at its strongest and the country's population is at its highest level in 150 years. The Atlantic corridor proposal to link the major cities outside Dublin with a decent rail and road network never looked likely to get off the drawing board. Apparently 'inter-urban' only applies if Dublin is involved.

Businesses based in Cork contribute a disproportionately high amount to the national GDP, yet Cork county council receives a disproportionately low amount of funding from the government coffers. Cork's third level institutions provide one of the highest number of ICT graduates per head of capita in Europe, yet most of our bright young people have to leave the city in order to find relevant work as graduates. We are haemorrhaging quality hi-tech jobs of late, yet we are told: Hey look, we've got Google and Yahoo and eBay to locate in Dublin! Aren't we great! Meanwhile any hi-tech job announcements for "the regions" are limited to call centres and production lines.

Transport 21 -- €34,000,000,000 to be spent on public transport in the country, and what's in it for Cork? Hey! We're going to reopen the Middleton rail line! Isn't that great! (If you're counting, please let us know how many times this has been announced since the first time a number of years ago)

National Development Plan -- €180,000,000,000 to be spent, and what's in it for Cork? Hey! We're going to reopen the Middleton rail line! Isn't that great! And as if that wasn't enough, there will be hourly trains between Cork and Dublin! (hourly train service commenced weeks before NDP announcement). Aren't we fantastic!

I could go on but by this stage everyone's stopped reading. Just remember the next time you see an arrogant, smug Fianna Fáil TD on the TV: "We're great, look what we've given you, you should be grateful."

At this stage if the opposition consisted of a flu ridden chicken farm I'd still vote for them, just to get the current shower out.

[mrbobdobalina]

Well said, Bosco. Hear hear.

[fieldsofbishopstown]

The majority of the Irish media would certainly like you to believe that the election is a foregone conclusion. I'm not so sure.

[vampiricchicken]

I'm not sure that we'll see Micháel Martin and that other jack of all trades martin Cullen will get elected, given their whole "yes, let's make Cork Airport shoulder the debt". The Airport saga has brought shame on the government because they fail time and time again to actually do something decent about this. The debt should not fall on Cork Airport Authority, because Cork Airport Authority is not yet a separate fraternity. Also, the CAA did not want the new airport, it was entirely the decision of the DAA.

The teflon Taoiseach thinks that he's safe as houses, and chances are that, at the moment, he is. But with Labour and Fine Gael up and coming with some important Campaign work, and the PD's losing out hugely because of the health issues in this country, it's noly a matter of time before the country wakes up.

[Jim Comic]

eddie's on the attack:


http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0224/green.html

[trasnanadtonnta]

Free medical cards for the under sixes? So now as well as having to pay for the sons and daughters of wealthy people to go to college, the tax payer will also have to pay for the little Saoirses and Fiachras of the wealthy to get their flu shots? Go way and shite.

[Shomershabbas]

The present government have ridden along nicely on the wave of prosperity that the country has enjoyed, claiming full responsibility for it and telling us we should all be happy with what "they" have done. We will look back at the last ten years as a time when the governmant have had resources of a level unheard of before and probably for a long time in the future and think where did it go? For anyone brave enough to face up to it, the environment and our future energy sources must be the biggest issue facing us now and on this one the government has fuck all planned. The party that tackles these issues with the balls to say "party's over folks, some serious changes to our lifestyles are needed" will get my vote. Let us please do away with our American influenced politics of personality. "Bertie is an okay sort" according to Taste (see above). If a corrupt shyster can be an okay sort it says a lot about the country we live in.

[doppellanger]

Free medical cards for the under sixes? So now as well as having to pay for the sons and daughters of wealthy people to go to college, the tax payer will also have to pay for the little Saoirses and Fiachras of the wealthy to get their flu shots? Go way and shite.

Well, it's an election promise so I would not read too much into it.

But the following is just typical idiocy: "The Green Party leader, Trevor Sargent, said he would resign the leadership if the party goes into coalition with Fianna Fáil after the next Election. "

It just serves to confuse the voters. And it's all very well taking the high moral ground but the air is thin there and the goats are bumpy.

And there is no point attacking Bertie Ahern, he is too popular, saying that he should resign is going to lose more votes than anything else.

They would be better off saying they won't go into coalition with McDowell or the PD's. If they wanted votes, that is.

Also, no party has come up with the idea of reducing VAT. Cuts in income tax are all very well but they have very limited impact on the low-earning bracket, whereas VAT cut might at least put a damper on inflation (and if not businesses would be able to pocket the difference which would appeal to the typical PD voter.)

Only problem is that it would be difficult for the Greens to spin as consumption and consumerism is seen by some to be anti-environment. If they could wrap it up with some sort of environmental spiel they could be on a winner. Separation of waste or something like that. We'll reduce VAT BUT you will have to separate your rubbish message, that should go down well. Plays nicely into the whole Catholic guilt thing.

[KolaKubes]

I don't think the opposition can really lose this one.

I think the economy is heading for a fall (finally), feelgood factor from Saturday notwithstanding. If the incumbents get back in, they'll inevitably fluff their lines like the incompetent bluffers they are and get blown out of it in the election that will soon follow.

If FG/Lab get in, it might prove something of a poisoned chalice because they might get associated with the downturn. I don't think we're quite that dumb a nation and they'll be able to paint it as the current government's fault.

Personally, I think we'll be the winners if FF are put out because we'll need a steady hand on the tiller if things turn bad, not FF's populist bullshit and flip flopping on issues.

Personally, when the shit hits the fan I'd hope the Taoiseach was in his office doing some work rather than being at the likes of Six's band launch or out to lunch with Paddy the Plasterer.

[jungle]

I really don't expect either of the potential governments that are being touted being able to get enough seats.

Although the Greens are doing well in recent opinion polls, they risk a situation where they gain a lot of votes, without gaining many seats. However, I expect Fianna Fail and the PDs to lose enough that they will be significantly short of a majority.

The likely potential governments are a Fianna Fail/Labour coalition, but they are unlikely to get together or the more likely option of a FF/PD governments backed up by a number of independents. In the second case, I wouldn't imagine that the government would last for very long anyway.

Given the worsening economy and the potentially weak coalitions on offer, don't expect the next government to go the full term.

[Gael]

Just something to note: Before the 2004 local elections, FF were doing very repectably in the polls, yet on polling day got their worst vote since the 1930s. Do people really think they've done such a great jobs since 2004, to trawl back those votes? Don't take polls too seriously. As the idiom goes, there is only one poll that really matters; the one on election day.

[jungle]

Against this, you have to take into account that a rise in votes does not always translate to a significant rise in seats. I expect the Greens to show a very significant rise in support at the next election, yet this may only lead to a single extra seat in Carlow-Kilkenny.

I don't really expect much difference in terms of vote percentages on the last election. I suspect FG, the Greens and SF will be marginally up, with FF, the PDs, Labour and Independents down, but I'm not sure that the seat totals will change dramatically enough for a change of government (although I think it would be a minority one this time).

[doppellanger]

Against this, you have to take into account that a rise in votes does not always translate to a significant rise in seats. I expect the Greens to show a very significant rise in support at the next election, yet this may only lead to a single extra seat in Carlow-Kilkenny.

I don't really expect much difference in terms of vote percentages on the last election. I suspect FG, the Greens and SF will be marginally up, with FF, the PDs, Labour and Independents down, but I'm not sure that the seat totals will change dramatically enough for a change of government (although I think it would be a minority one this time).

I reckon the Greens stand to gain more seats. They should gain transfers from people voting against FF/PD's and FF/PD voters might transfer to the Greens to vote against FG/Labour.

That's as long as they don't just bang on about carbon emissions which turns voters off.

They seem to be concentrating on education, which is probably a good idea as it is a concern of people living in David McWilliam's Deckland and they have a regional development policy that might help them pick up seats in the "down the country" constituency.

[Poc Fada]

Since his Ard Fheis speech Enda Kenny is getting good media coverage so I dont think FF's victory is so certain yet. Charlie Bird was with him yesterday and they had a great propaganda coup with shots of Kenny filling up the party's campaign trail fleet with bio-fuel. Ahern is cute but a bit behind on that tip.

I think the Greens might call the shots as I think FF/PD wont get more than 80seats. Ahern should have called the election a few months back when things were a bit more rosey in the garden. Now there's a lot of stumbling blocks:

Economy: rising inflation and the slow in house prices are making people nervous
Health: Harney up to her neck in nurses, consultants kicking up
Roads: Huge over runs on cost, M50 toll buy back, No major public transport incentives.
Environment: global warming, kyoto failures, lack of credibilty, Galway water
Crime: gun crime, criminal gangs running amok
Scandal: Manchester payments, Moriarty tribunal

...just to mention a few.

[Actin The Sham]

if bertie can survive the payments scandal last year then i fear we're stuck with him, they may as well just crown him emperor for life now.


while rabbitte is, i feel, a pretty good performer in the dail enda has all the charisma of a dead sheep so can't see people switching to him in the numbers required to make a major difference

the ony thing that'll get ff/pd's out is a major world recession and do we really want that?

This was a prophetic post from two years ago.

[hemlock666]

That it is...

[REMIMUFC]

jim comic clairvoyant

[hiawatha]

It's simple: Jim Comic is a member of the illuminati. That wasn't a prediction, it was a threat.