View Full Version : The Breeders Cup
anmadrarua
03-10-2006, 01:50 PM
well. what do you fancy.
georgous george is a tad skinny for my liking. any views on the american form?
Gorgeous George. Maximum bet for me at the moment. As your man in the RP said, good ground, good gallop, virtually unbeatable
I find this to be a hard meeting, as its hard to follow the American racing. I hear Benardi is a good thing for the classic, reckon Dylan Thomas will give it a right rattle though
anmadrarua
03-10-2006, 02:38 PM
Gorgeous George. Maximum bet for me at the moment. As your man in the RP said, good ground, good gallop, virtually unbeatable
I find this to be a hard meeting, as its hard to follow the American racing. I hear Benardi is a good thing for the classic, reckon Dylan Thomas will give it a right rattle though
i'm going to stick my neck out and say now that dylan thomas won't be there at the business end of that race. its on dirt and no matter what anybody says the swop frm turf to dirt is very difficult to over come. expecially for a horse that went so well over a mile and half at epsom.
how about we divide it up and research a race each and pool our findings. a sort of virtual back of the church if you will.
i will do the classic. you do the mile. anybody up for the mile and half?
I'll do the mile and the mile and a half
Carmona
03-10-2006, 03:43 PM
I haven't thought about this yet. What's the track like, it's not one of those US tracks where there's about 50 yards to a hairpin bend is it? The Euros have a shit record on those as we never seem to break quickly enough. You can imagine G.W. liking a bit of pace though. I^d also be wary of our lads running shorter than best distance - like Alex on Sunday - as they go a ferocious pace from off. I'll get more into it as the date comes nearer.
the fillies and mares is 1m3.5f I think, that will suit Alex a lot more
anmadrarua
03-10-2006, 04:31 PM
the track is the same is the one for the Ky derby and as far as i know the turf course is on the inside of the dirt track which would make it quite tight. i cant see george liking a very tight track given the way he likes to gallop on. carmona you have been nominted to research the mile. we will dicuss the distaff and the juvenile races later. and if anybody feels like putting themsleves through the torture of the sprint then feel free.
Carmona
03-10-2006, 07:03 PM
the track is the same is the one for the Ky derby and as far as i know the turf course is on the inside of the dirt track which would make it quite tight. i cant see george liking a very tight track given the way he likes to gallop on. carmona you have been nominted to research the mile. we will dicuss the distaff and the juvenile races later. and if anybody feels like putting themsleves through the torture of the sprint then feel free.
I know nothing about horse racing
FFS
Mockery.
anmadrarua
03-10-2006, 07:27 PM
I know nothing about horse racing
FFS
Mockery.
sure we all know that but off with ya, get out yer racing post and find out all you can about the mile. you know you want to.
Carmona
05-10-2006, 04:44 PM
ok, first bulletin! The yanks seem to fancy their Aragorn though he came from a very humble Irish background, check out link which I hope works. What worries me about the article is they're already talking about draw and turns (2 of em in a mile!) Wouldn't we be better off waiting till draw has been made?http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/breederscup06/news/story?id=2611955
anmadrarua
10-10-2006, 10:15 AM
ok, first bulletin! The yanks seem to fancy their Aragorn though he came from a very humble Irish background, check out link which I hope works. What worries me about the article is they're already talking about draw and turns (2 of em in a mile!) Wouldn't we be better off waiting till draw has been made?http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/breederscup06/news/story?id=2611955
you stil need to have the leg work done before the draw is made. get the finger out and find out all you can.
any day now i expect to start researching the classic. any day.
I'll definitely have it within the next few days
anmadrarua
10-10-2006, 10:39 AM
dylan thomas looks to have blotted his copybook in his attempt at the classic. so i am warning you off backing him. take heed. i have researched this carelfully.
DO NOT BACK DYLAN THOMAS FOR THE CLASSIC.
Carmona
10-10-2006, 10:58 AM
dylan thomas looks to have blotted his copybook in his attempt at the classic. so i am warning you off backing him. take heed. i have researched this carelfully.
DO NOT BACK DYLAN THOMAS FOR THE CLASSIC.
And there was I thinking his two furlong defeat was a handy prep race!! See how they're starting to think of George for the Classic. That would throw the fish among the penguins but I do fancy that Bernardini at slight odds against, tempting.
Hochma
10-10-2006, 11:40 AM
I heard that George is only doing the run to set the pace ...
anmadrarua
10-10-2006, 12:08 PM
And there was I thinking his two furlong defeat was a handy prep race!! See how they're starting to think of George for the Classic. That would throw the fish among the penguins but I do fancy that Bernardini at slight odds against, tempting.
dont let the size of teh defeat fool you. bernadini was being eased downe at the finish. if it was ever a case of boys against men this was it. strange because there was no doubting his class. he does seem to be a bit of an in and out runner. anyways hes off the list so time to turn attent elsewhere.
i have it on good authority that georgous george was given a spin on the ballydoyle dirt gallop and worked like a trooper. the only trouble is that they say that about all their steeds.
Carmona
10-10-2006, 01:37 PM
dont let the size of teh defeat fool you. bernadini was being eased downe at the finish. if it was ever a case of boys against men this was it. strange because there was no doubting his class. he does seem to be a bit of an in and out runner. anyways hes off the list so time to turn attent elsewhere.
i have it on good authority that georgous george was given a spin on the ballydoyle dirt gallop and worked like a trooper. the only trouble is that they say that about all their steeds.
And you've got the distance to worry about. Too many ifs I think. See what POL says, he's a big GW fan.
GW has nothing to lose going in the Classic, he should walk the mile anyway, he has nothing to prove there. I always felt they should have let him at the Epsom derby to see how he'd go, I suppose they didn't want another Hawk Wing situation, they had a get out clause anyway because if it went badly they could always go back to being a miler, I think he can get 10 furlongs myself, he was still on the bridle pulling hard well inside the last furlong at Ascot in the QE2. The big thing is the dirt, but George Loves fast ground.
Hochma
10-10-2006, 01:51 PM
Yes he does ... he will be full of running ...
anmadrarua
10-10-2006, 02:28 PM
enough rubbish talk. i will get on with the classic. hochma r u on for the distaff race.
that wud be the following covered:
classic - me
mile - carmona
turf - POL
distaff - hochma
anmadrarua
11-10-2006, 03:09 PM
from todays racing post....
THE lure of the Breeders' Cup Classic should now be obvious to all. It is clearly great enough to cause top-class turf horses with nothing to recommend them as prospects for the dirt to be sent on missions they have little chance of fulfilling.
But this is also evident to those planning their campaigns. It does not require the power of genius to perceive, for example, that any horse with top-class turf form by Danehill is a poor bet to act on dirt. I will not reprise the evidence, but this statistic would seem to be enough todiscourage anyone from sending a Danehill for a top-class race on dirt in the US.
If the son of Danehill is a speedy miler who needs exaggerated waiting tactics and has a fragile ego, the chance it will adapt to a strongly run 1m2f with kickback flying around is poorer still. Oh, and the horse in question also has a stride with lots of common elements to most top-class turf runners, but very little in common with most top-class dirt runners.
Aidan O'Brien knows this; the brains trust at Coolmore know this. So why are they entertaining the idea of running George Washington Breeders' Cup Classic?
Please don't say that he has nothing left to prove on turf. This may have been true of Rock Of Gibraltar, another son of Danehill, who had seven Group 1son his cv when the Breeders' Cup meeting at Arlington came around in 2002. You could perhaps have justified a tilt at the unlikely in his case, particularly as there was no Bernardini or Lava Man around in the US at the time.
No, it is perfectly possible for George Washington to improve his profile on turf. Most impartial observers still doubt his temperament, and a Breeders' Cup victory of any kind would not only pad his record but also silence the doubters.
With all this in mind, the decision toopt for the Mile should be a no-brainer - but when you look at it as a cold-hearted economist, a very different conclusion can be reached.
The better option is governed by which offers the greater expected value to Coolmore in taking part. Expected value in this case is determined by the percentage chance of a favourable result multiplied by the anticipated reward for success.
In the Mile, you could argue there is roughly a 20 per cent chance that something good enough will happen to boost George Washington's profile. In the Classic, the chance is no worse than 10 per cent, because heroic failure - such as that suffered by Giant's Causeway in the 2000 renewal - is a much greater part of the equation. (In other words, a two-length defeat by Bernardini is worth an awful lot more than a two-length defeat by top US turf miler Aragorn.)
Assuming George Washington stands in Ireland, the difference between the implied reward of a favourable result in the Mile and Classic may not be that great. In either case, a boost to his reputation may only result in breeders being attracted to him in preference to another Coolmore stallion.
And in Rock Of Gibraltar, Danehill Dancer, Dylan Thomas, Oratorio, Mull Of Kintyre, Spartacus, Catcher In TheRye, Holy Roman Emperor and Aussie Rules, Coolmore already have current or future stallion sons of Danehill coming out of their ears.
The reward for a big run in the Classic is potentially a lot greater for George Washington because it would increase the feasibility of standing him in Kentucky.
Giant's Causeway himself went there after a season in Ireland and stood for $300,000 in 2006; although George Washington has a more European-oriented pedigree, he is out of an Alysheba mare.
Furthermore, there are no stallions by Danehill (as opposed to one by Nijinsky and one by Sadler's Wells) currently on the strength of Coolmore America's Ashford Stud.
It goes without saying that John Magnier and his Coolmore team will be able to make much more refined judgements of the odds and rewards involved than those above.
There are also other factors in the equation, such as the greater prize-money in the Classic, and the important fact that O'Brien already has a good team for the Mile in Aussie Rules and Ad Valorem.
Aside from these considerations, the point is that what appeals as a good decision to run in the Mile based on the absolute chance of success may actually be a poor one based on the economics.
Oh, and just one more thing. Imagine the craic if George Washington turns over Bernardini.
anmadrarua
13-10-2006, 11:44 AM
George is going for a spin to Southwell to go for a dry run for the classic. if the B'doyle noises are to be believed then he is expected to do a good piece of work. if the work is as good as expected then hes ging straight to churchill downs. he is currently a 10/1 chance with betdirect. PP are not quoting yet.
some laugh if he turned Benardi over, I'd love it.
The Godolphin colt who cost 9.7 million is going in the 1:35 at Newmarket today, should be interesting
anmadrarua
13-10-2006, 12:05 PM
some laugh if he turned Benardi over, I'd love it.
The Godolphin colt who cost 9.7 million is going in the 1:35 at Newmarket today, should be interesting
what did they name him?
he was by kingmambo?
anmadrarua
13-10-2006, 12:12 PM
its ok i have him. he was teh storm cat. october is very late for a storm cat to make his first appearence. something tells me this lad won't be a sprinter.
he he, just managed to get a look at jaili at lunch Another shite purchase for Godolphin! absolute donkey
Carmona
13-10-2006, 07:34 PM
Dettori says he liked the way he stayed on up the hill!? Sixth and staying on for $10 million; good value all round. What d'ye fancy for the Champs stakes and what about the 2 yo face off?
anmadrarua
27-10-2006, 06:21 PM
http://www.thoroughbredtime s.com/default.asp
the entries for the Breeders Cup are on that link.
Carmona
01-11-2006, 12:40 PM
Ok, so I'm i the Republic right now and so hopefully will catch a bit of the racing. Will Channel 4 be doing a bit of highlights of BC and who does it live, at the races I suppose. If ya had a grand (to spare) would ya put it on GW?
Its on At the Races live, its free if you have access to Sky, I'll have a report by Friday, had a hectic few weeks there
anmadrarua
01-11-2006, 01:00 PM
Ok, so I'm i the Republic right now and so hopefully will catch a bit of the racing. Will Channel 4 be doing a bit of highlights of BC and who does it live, at the races I suppose. If ya had a grand (to spare) would ya put it on GW?
i cant see how you could back him. hes a total nut job and hes making his debut on dirt (or polytrack). bernardinin and Lava Man are serious contenders. at this moment im thinking of backing Lava Man.
Discreet Cat might be a nice option at 10/1. hes not really a US horse but hes 3 for 3 this year and i like a horse with winning form.
If I had a grand to spare, I'd have 500e/w on a Scorpion/GW double..
anmadrarua
01-11-2006, 02:00 PM
If I had a grand to spare, I'd have 500e/w on a Scorpion/GW double..
i agree about scorpion. at 10/1 hes value. but george is leaving me cold.
having said that they are bullish about their chances. they like the way he is working on the dirt at ballydoyle.
the turf is less than vintage and thats why i fancy Scorpion. how can HR be 3/1 fot this race. he has raced like a old woman after hens in his last two starts.
markyd007
01-11-2006, 04:18 PM
stay clear of george washington he wont go on the dirt, no matter what ballydoyle are saying!!
anmadrarua
01-11-2006, 05:32 PM
anybody fancy anything?
I have a feeling about the gorgeous one, he's been my horse of the year, in fact I've been watching him ever since his first win back in May 05 and I knew he was special that day. Guineas day was one of my best days racing ever, and the QE2 even better, lets hope he can turn them over
anmadrarua
02-11-2006, 11:01 AM
I have a feeling about the gorgeous one, he's been my horse of the year, in fact I've been watching him ever since his first win back in May 05 and I knew he was special that day. Guineas day was one of my best days racing ever, and the QE2 even better, lets hope he can turn them over
i wish i had your faith brother POL. i just cant see him going on dirt. i was the same about hawk Wing a few years ago. he was the much teh same as georgous george, big strng strapping horse with a greta burst of speed but a total nut job. he didnt like the kick back when it came to the BC.
it could be a case of backing one horse and hoping another one wins......
Pure Magic
02-11-2006, 11:35 AM
The draws are out for the Classic. George and Bernardini are drwn beside each other in 3 and 4 - perfect draw for both. What time is the race on a at. I assume it's the last one.
The draws are out for the Classic. George and Bernardini are drwn beside each other in 3 and 4 - perfect draw for both. What time is the race on a at. I assume it's the last one.10.20
anmadrarua
02-11-2006, 11:42 AM
10.20
what pub in cork witll be showing it?
Pure Magic
02-11-2006, 03:42 PM
I remember last year it was actualy on in most pubs, but that was actually the bank holiday weekend.
Just looking at the draws for the different races, and I think Scorpion could be very good bet. 10/1. Lightly raced this season so will be fresher than most other horses in the race. (only his second race after a nice return at the curragh a few weeks back).
Any pub with Sky will surely stick it on for you, I'll be watching it at home in comfort, if Scorpion and GW do the business I won't be seen for the week
Well boys, any luck? Thought George took the dirt just didn't stay in the end, got a nice belt off Invasor aswell when going for in the straight, at least he gave it a shot. Ouija Board star of the show for me. What a legend.
theporge
06-11-2006, 12:33 PM
Ouija Board my only winner. LMAO Attheraces crew missing Pine Island falling completely in the Distaff. This was my hard luck story of the night. Backed Lemons Forever in this each-way at 33-1. Was almost brought down by the ill-fated Pine Island and was at least 25 lengths adrift turning for home. Finished a fast closing 6th beaten by less than 7 lengths.
Felt the "Golden Rail" somewhat spoiled the evening's dirt racing.
What an awful ride Rob Roy got in the mile!!
anmadrarua
06-11-2006, 01:00 PM
george ran prteyy much as i expected. the hype failed to come through. i had a small bet on red rocks but lost everything else i touched. good to see bernardini beaten. i see the yanks are kicking up an awful stink about the shiek mo purchasing invasor. get over it guys, thoroughbred racing at that level is not a sport.
well I had Ouija Board and Draeming of Anna and a place on Circualr whatever he's called in the second race, Tabor owns a part, after that it was a fucking disaster, down a few hundred. Lets Hope King Kieran will stuff those Aussie bastards tomorrow
Carmona
06-11-2006, 06:00 PM
Just saw the race there on Youtube, George didn't do badly - that squeeze may have cost him a place or two but no more.
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