The Dublin South By-election

[jd26]

It's a bit ridiculous that there is no time limit on how long a seat can be left unoccupied, especially when some are suggesting it might be held vacant until next year's European/local elections, but ignoring that, what do people think about the by election itself.

It's obviously very important because if Fianna Fail don't retain the seat, the Green Party become an indispensable part of the government coalition and have a lot more power.

Anyway, my take on the chances and wishes of the various parties are as follows.

Fianna Fail - Amazingly, a government party hasn't won a by-election since the Galway East by-election in 1982. And there's little reason to believe it will be different here. They took a respectable 41% of the vote in the general election, but a significant amount of that would have been personal votes for Tom Kitt and Seamus Brennan. Add to that the state of the economy and it will be tough. They'll need at least 40% to hold the seat and I can't quite see them getting that.

Fine Gael - The big question for Fine Gael is how much their sitting TDs want it. With 27% of the vote and two TDs, this is probably their strongest Dublin constituency. But there's no chance of three TDs getting returned, so would Shatter and Mitchell really want to see a new face. There's an outside chance that Olivia Mitchell may consider retiring at the next General Election, in which case, their candidate would get a lot more local support

Labour - First they have to sort out their candidate. Most would say Senator Alex White, but Cllr Aidan Culhane may have something to say about that. On the plus side, both are established names in the constituency. But Labour would really need to get more first preferences than Fine Gael to have a hope of the seat. To do that, they need to take a lot of Fine Gael votes and a lot of the candidate-based Green vote that went for Eamon Ryan last time.

Greens - I'm not sure they'll even put up a candidate. There's no established face and whoever runs would do worse than Ryan, putting pressure on the party's position in government. It might be more expedient to adopt an approach of "There won't be a second seat at the next GE, so we won't run". It could also avoid splits with their government partners. The other question is whether they'll really want FF to win.

PDs - Assuming they still exist at the time of the by-election, a good result could present a route back to national relevance. In some ways, it's the ideal constituency for them to run a campaign. I assume Fiona O'Malley will be the candidate.

Sinn Fein - Not a hope in Dublin South. They'll probably try to establish someone's name before the Locals.

[Proinsias]

Are you actually involved in Irish politics from day to day or is this just a hobby as you seem to know a lot about this stuff.

[jd26]

I'm not and never have been an elected representative. Nor have I run for anything beyond a few clubs and socs positions when I was in UCC. Similarly, I'm not and never have been a member of a political party and to be honest I couldn't imagine myself joining because I find I disagree with every single one of them about too something.

I did need to have an interest in politics some time in my hazy past, but I guess now, it's just that I've maintained the interest.

[juan pablo]

This thread is better suited to Politics.ie, the PROC has little time for the Irish pol nerds.

DS is a going to be a fascinating by-election though, if the opposition cannot win the seat here then they may as well give up. The constituency straddles both working class & well to do areas so there should be a lot of anti Gov feeling.

FG & Lab now have the upperhand. With the returning of the Dail in the autumn and the locals/Euros next year its time the opposition crank up a gear and start presenting themselves as a genuine alternative.

FG to get the seat but not in an impressive manner.

[jd26]

I agree that it's Fine Gael's to lose, I just wonder whether the two sitting Fine Gael TDs might not want company. If Labour were to get it, it would the Eamon Ryan who would have a fight on his hands in the next election, but a third Fine Gael TD could make life ery uncomfortable for them.

As for www.politics.ie... Recently, it seems to have become completely dominated by extreme eurosceptics and people who judge politics by the purity of adherence to the republican tradition. You get more sensible debate round here nowadays.

[jd26]

With the seat now vacant for 7 months and heading to be the longest any seat has gone unfilled in Irish history, it seems patience has finally been lost.

Normally, it's up to the party of the deceased TD to move the writ, but as FF have shown no signs of doing so and have left the constituency under-represented for so long, Labour are going to break with convention and move the writ. Of course, there's also an element of political opportunism in this move.

If FF and the Greens oppose the writ, they'll look very undemocratic, so their only choice is to publish it themselves presumably specifying long in advance what everyone knows, which is that they want it on the same day as the local elections so that they can get all the bad news out of the way on the one day.