C'mon Cork Airport! Kerry Airport is dropping the ball!

[Actin_the_Sham]

What a shambles this morning.
Ryanair have decided to have more flights going to and from Kerry and as we all knew, the place just isn't able to handle the extra passengers.
The had 2 lads out trying to get 2 plane loads of people through that little door and scanned in the 1 x-ray machine and 1 metal detector operated by 2 security staff.

The Stansted flight should have left at 8:15am and people were still outside the security area. Then the 2 lads decide it "might" be the best option to tell the Stansted crowd to come round the other side so they can go through faster. But they didn't tell the Hahn crowd to stop going through until 10 minutes later which didn't really solve the problem.

And what are the security staff doing inside at the metal detector? Asking people to remove their shoes. That's so 2004.

A total fucking shambles is what it was. I overheard some Germans making jokes like "A small airport with big problems". I thought of Cork airport immediately and the amount of tumble weed kicking about up there :(

The routes are there for the taking by Cork airport. The "great" South West is only a 90 min drive really. But we know they would never go there once they land in Cork :D

[juan pablo]

Ryanair wanted the old terminal at Cork Airport when the new one opened, give them that at a cheap price and eliminate the PSOs and et viola! CAA is on the path to being a viable entity.

Of course the Environmentalist in me dislikes the Aviation Industry so lets promote alternatives to air travel. the fact Kerry, Knock, Waterford, Galway, Inishbofin and wherever else have Airports is a joke, there should never be a need or demand to fly to these places!

[funktronic]

hey!
what gives?

ryanair will fly to where is most economical..

nathin wrong with going to farranfore if you want to go to hahn.. better than the tip to limerick anyway...

[Tube a Pringles]

The PSOs are a joke. An island the size of Ireland should be able to sustain 2 airports (3 max). This idea of an airport in every county practically is only a vote catcher.

[Proinsias]

The PSOs are a joke. An island the size of Ireland should be able to sustain 2 airports (3 max). This idea of an airport in every county practically is only a vote catcher.

It's to compensate for the shit land transport network.

And on that note, it's the only airport in Ireland that connects to the rail network. A shit rail line but one nonetheless.

In the interests of research, I checked and noted that it's 48km to drive from Millstreet to Farranfore.
There's only two stops between Millstreet and Farranfore and yet the fastest train will do it in 50 minutes.
An average of 36mph or 57 kmph. Of course, some of the trains are slower than this, the intercity takes 54 minutes

No wonder people fly...

[BlackAvon08]

[QUOTE=Proinsias;2164 633]
And on that note, it's the only airport in Ireland that connects to the rail network. A shit rail line but one nonetheless.
QUOTE]

Did you ever try to take a connecting train after arriving in Farranfore airport? I reckon it’s a 2km walk along the roadside – invariably in the rain!
Maybe they have a shuttle bus which I haven’t seen…

[Proinsias]

And on that note, it's the only airport in Ireland that connects to the rail network. A shit rail line but one nonetheless.


Did you ever try to take a connecting train after arriving in Farranfore airport? I reckon it’s a 2km walk along the roadside – invariably in the rain!
Maybe they have a shuttle bus which I haven’t seen…

Cork, Dublin, Shannon and knock would kill to be only 2km from a train station.

Cork's Skylink is a mere €8.
Which is, honestly, a rip off.

Or you could save the €1.something and take the slow as shit standard bus that takes half an hour or so to get to the city centre

[ANVIL]

What a shambles this morning.
Ryanair have decided to have more flights going to and from Kerry and as we all knew, the place just isn't able to handle the extra passengers.
The had 2 lads out trying to get 2 plane loads of people through that little door and scanned in the 1 x-ray machine and 1 metal detector operated by 2 security staff.

The Stansted flight should have left at 8:15am and people were still outside the security area. Then the 2 lads decide it "might" be the best option to tell the Stansted crowd to come round the other side so they can go through faster. But they didn't tell the Hahn crowd to stop going through until 10 minutes later which didn't really solve the problem.

And what are the security staff doing inside at the metal detector? Asking people to remove their shoes. That's so 2004.

A total fucking shambles is what it was. I overheard some Germans making jokes like "A small airport with big problems". I thought of Cork airport immediately and the amount of tumble weed kicking about up there :(

The routes are there for the taking by Cork airport. The "great" South West is only a 90 min drive really. But we know they would never go there once they land in Cork :D

There has to be a question over the whole future viability of airports in Ireland if Ryanair find themselves in difficulty.
Michel O'Leary has got himself into an unholy mess by gambling a year ago that oil wouldn't go above $100 a barrel and faces a difficult winter - that and any long-term recession in Europe will have a huge effect on an airline built on heavy borrowing and low fares.
I suspect the closing down of certain routes this winter is only the thin end of the wedge.

[Proinsias]

There has to be a question over the whole future viability of airports in Ireland if Ryanair find themselves in difficulty.
Michel O'Leary has got himself into an unholy mess by gambling a year ago that oil wouldn't go above $100 a barrel and faces a difficult winter - that and any long-term recession in Europe will have a huge effect on an airline built on heavy borrowing and low fares.
I suspect the closing down of certain routes this winter is only the thin end of the wedge.

As i heavily disagree, I'm putting my money where my mouth is this week.

I predict that the oil price will be below $100 a barrel by the start of next year and Ryanair will be minting it once again.

[Tube a Pringles]

MOL has huge cash reserves also.

[ANVIL]

As i heavily disagree, I'm putting my money where my mouth is this week.

I predict that the oil price will be below $100 a barrel by the start of next year and Ryanair will be minting it once again.

The problem is,of course, that airlines hedge their fuel anything up to a year in advance.
Most City analysts are predicting Ryanair losses in 2009 of anything up to €100m and the only way to reduce losses is to cut routes which means less business for Irish airports which is the point of my original post.

[Proinsias]

MOL has huge cash reserves also.

€2.1 billion.

They're also in possession of 166 aircraft, 138 paid for planes on their way and 170 options for planes, said to be the cheapest price paid for 737-800s in the business (I'm right on that, aren't I?).

Considering the company is currently valued at just under €4 billion, it means the market reckons the company is essentially worthless and it's planes worth a fraction of their book values.

And yet, they can still break even at €130 a barrel. They're one of the only airlines in Europe that can cope with that price, the rest are only surviving now cause of hedging.

They're planning 4 new bases in Germany. The German market is wide open for expansion, I've friends who will drive the 3 hours to get to Frankfurt Hahn to get a flight with Ryanair, even though there's a very convenient in the city of Nuremberg.

They'd make a killing here.

[ANVIL]

€2.1 billion.

They're also in possession of 166 aircraft, 138 paid for planes on their way and 170 options for planes, said to be the cheapest price paid for 737-800s in the business (I'm right on that, aren't I?).

Considering the company is currently valued at just under €4 billion, it means the market reckons the company is essentially worthless and it's planes worth a fraction of their book values.

And yet, they can still break even at €130 a barrel. They're one of the only airlines in Europe that can cope with that price, the rest are only surviving now cause of hedging.

They're planning 4 new bases in Germany. The German market is wide open for expansion, I've friends who will drive the 3 hours to get to Frankfurt Hahn to get a flight with Ryanair, even though there's a very convenient in the city of Nuremberg.

They'd make a killing here.


There are many market analysts who don't share your current optimism for the company.

[jd26]

If their value was that obviously higher than the market cap of the company, someone would go in and asset strip them. I assume that cash will be required to pay for the new planes? And I also assume that the second-hand value of those planes will have dropped away in the current economic climate.

Although I'd agree that the price of oil will drop below $100 in the medium term, I don't think it'll go much lower and it'll be back up in 2 or 3 years time.

[Proinsias]

There are many market analysts who don't share your current optimism for the company.

I'm not optimistic about the companies of said analysts.


"$250 a barrel!"

"The fundamentals are sound!"

"Supply and demand, no change in supply and the developing countries increase demand by 10% a year"

Sure. Over the past 7 years, demand from developing countries has just over doubled.

The price has gone up by almost 5 times in that time period.

We're clearly in a bubble.

When it pops, Ryanair are sorted. They're the most efficient airline in europe with the lowest prices, one of the newest fleets, highest profit margin, best on time performance and a record of realising when they're not making a profit on a route and changing quickly.

[Proinsias]

If their value was that obviously higher than the market cap of the company, someone would go in and asset strip them. I assume that cash will be required to pay for the new planes? And I also assume that the second-hand value of those planes will have dropped away in the current economic climate.

Although I'd agree that the price of oil will drop below $100 in the medium term, I don't think it'll go much lower and it'll be back up in 2 or 3 years time.

Why?

[jd26]

Because supply peaked in 2005 and it'll be 10 years before deep water reserves come on stream.

[Proinsias]

Because supply peaked in 2005 and it'll be 10 years before deep water reserves come on stream.

But demand has dropped very significantly...

[jd26]

Only really in the USA. In producer countries, demand is surging as the higher price puts more money in people's pockets. A lot will depend on if/when China drops its oil subsidies, but that's will only offer a temporary reprieve. The price will only really stabilise as oil conservation measures kick in and deep water supplies become available or when someone works out how to get oil from algae in significant quantities.

[Proinsias]

Only really in the USA. In producer countries, demand is surging as the higher price puts more money in people's pockets. A lot will depend on if/when China drops its oil subsidies, but that's will only offer a temporary reprieve. The price will only really stabilise as oil conservation measures kick in and deep water supplies become available or when someone works out how to get oil from algae in significant quantities.

It's dropped massively in Europe too.

The US and Europe are where the majority of the world's oil is used.

Oil demand is only high in China and India because of subsidies. If China and India don't reduce these subsidies, they'll either destroy their refining industries completely or will have to fork out literally hundreds of billions per annum.

The oil producing countries' prices are ridiculous alright but so far, they don't make up a massively significant proportion of world demand. Not yet but they're getting there. As a result of how much it technically costs for them to supply the domestic market at such a low price, many of those countries, such as Iran, are rationing their fuel, causing severe problems:
http://www.thepeninsulaqata r.com/Display_news.asp?sec tion=Business_News&subsection=market+ne ws&month=July2008&file=Business_News20 08072405253.xml


Of course, the growth in renewable alternatives could also be described as explosive, it's not completely inconceivable that 20% of the EU's energy could come from completely renewable sources by 2015 (many countries are ahead of that) and the re-rise of nuclear will ensure that oil dependency for generation should again be reduced.

Not to mention, the first actual usable electric cars are hitting the market in the first half of next year, the Tesla Roadster is certainly one electric car I'd like to own (which is a sign it might just well work). A number of other companies are coming out with offerings for 2010.

This high price spike has accelerated R&D on alternatives no end. There's virtually no spare capacity worldwide in factories building wind turbines and solar panels.


So we have alternatives. The demand is going down, except for places where the price has absolutely no relation to the market (and so it could hit $300 a barrel in theory and make no difference).

Supply, well, again, there's a lot of money going in there and sure, the $8-$14 a barrel Saudi oil is not as plentiful as it once was, world reserves are at historically pretty high levels.

Refining capacity is a problem, as is the balance in refining but oddly enough, China and India have quite a bit of spare refining capacity, the indian refiners are losing $50 billion a year and a few have stopped taking on new customers and are cutting back as much as the government will allow to stem the losses.

[jd26]

Those are all talking a 10 year time frame though. There's a messy period between 2010 and 2016 when supplies are dwindling, demand is rising and the R&D investment has yet to bear fruit.

[Proinsias]

Those are all talking a 10 year time frame though. There's a messy period between 2010 and 2016 when supplies are dwindling, demand is rising and the R&D investment has yet to bear fruit.

Hmm, I'm not sure I'd agree.

The cost of extraction hasn't gone insane (yes, it's risen but we can still get it out of the ground, in the majority of places, for less than $30 a barrel) and known, proven reserves have been replaced pretty consistently.

The biggest argument I've heard to justify the current prices is that reserves haven't grown. Well, that's the the problem with oil. It's demand tends to be a bit laggy. So you jack up the price in the short term, it doesn't affect the demand much so you jack it up even more. Again, doesn't affect the demand much.

Now it's starting to affect demand.

Of course, China is important but the US and the EU combined consume over 5 times more oil.

If demand drops significantly (which it is) in the EU and the USA and china's demand doesn't grow insanely, the net global demand will drop.

[Actin_the_Sham]

There has to be a question over the whole future viability of airports in Ireland if Ryanair find themselves in difficulty.
Michel O'Leary has got himself into an unholy mess by gambling a year ago that oil wouldn't go above $100 a barrel and faces a difficult winter - that and any long-term recession in Europe will have a huge effect on an airline built on heavy borrowing and low fares.
I suspect the closing down of certain routes this winter is only the thin end of the wedge.

Closing down routes? Didn't you see the part where I wrote that they increased the routes into Kerry?
And those new Boeing's...Schwing! They look a bit retro which was nice to see when it arrived in Hahn.