Saying Goodbye

[jungle]

A selection of high profile candidates who may have a bit of a fight on to retain their seats

Tony Gregory
Michael McDowell
Jim McDaid
Caoimhghin O Caolain
Fiona O'Malley
Michael D Higgins
Martin Ferris
Donie Cassidy
Beverley Cooper-Flynn

Anyone have a few more to add to the list?

N.B. Most of these are likely to hold their seat, but the chances of losing it are not insignificant.

[cartoon]

Id be sorry to see Tony Gregory lose his seat. While Im not a leftie he does champion social inequalities - something the labour party, seems to have ditched.

Id like to see Martin Ferris lose his seat. I didnt think he was under pressure though...? The drink driving charge, if its brought, will probably boost him.

For entertainment's sake I wouldnt like to see McDowell lose his seat. his temprement is always useful to spice things up, some of the politicians Ive been listening to on the radio lately would turn you off voting. At least with McDowell you like him or loath him.

Hardly high profile but in Cork Id say John Dennehy in south central mightnt be as secure as FF think. He's a good local politician but might take the brunt of the FF backlash. He'll probably squeze in though with Coveney and Micahel Martin topping the poll.

Noel OFlynn is a dead cert along with Bernard Allen on the northside.

I wish Martin Cullen was under threat but sadly the clown will probably top the poll in Waterford. Should be another few polls by the weekend.

[cartoon]

Beverley Cooper-Flynn



Out! Out!

[jungle]

I expect Sinn Fein to gain a seat in Dublin Central. The question is which one.

Gregory, Labour and the second Fianna Fail seat could all be under threat. Bertie has spent huge amounts in what is his constituency and although the second Fianna Fail one is most likely to go, his profile along with the spending could be enough.

I would say that each seat is pretty much equally vulnerable at this point.

[elwood blues]

Id be sorry to see Tony Gregory lose his seat. While Im not a leftie he does champion social inequalities - something the labour party, seems to have ditched.

Id like to see Martin Ferris lose his seat. I didnt think he was under pressure though...? The drink driving charge, if its brought, will probably boost him.

For entertainment's sake I wouldnt like to see McDowell lose his seat. his temprement is always useful to spice things up, some of the politicians Ive been listening to on the radio lately would turn you off voting. At least with McDowell you like him or loath him.

Hardly high profile but in Cork Id say John Dennehy in south central mightnt be as secure as FF think. He's a good local politician but might take the brunt of the FF backlash. He'll probably squeze in though with Coveney and Micahel Martin topping the poll.

Noel OFlynn is a dead cert along with Bernard Allen on the northside.

I wish Martin Cullen was under threat but sadly the clown will probably top the poll in Waterford. Should be another few polls by the weekend.

the re jigging of the boundaries helps John Dennehy out big time.

[Actin The Sham]

the re jigging of the boundaries helps John Dennehy out big time.

I'd say he's gone.

I'd love to see FF get turfed out of Cork this time round. Their patronising arrogance towards us especially over the airport issue simply cannot and should not go unpunished.

Every party needs to know that they cannot take us for granted. We taught the FG/Labour crowd that lesson in the past when they didn't give Cork a minister at the cabinet table, methinks its time to crack the whip again.


In my opinion, O'Flynn and Dennehy should both be fired.

Kelleher and Martin should be the citys only FF representatives in the next Dail in order to put manners on them.

As regards the overall winners of the election, or who is going to be in government next, I just don't care so long as Cork gets a minister.

Be that Simon Coveney, Micheal Martin, Bernard Allen or Kathleen Lynch I really couldn't care less.

[jungle]

Unfortunately, Fianna Fail will get at least 2 in South Central.

They may lose the second seat in North Central, but that would be dependent on either the Socialists or the Greens finishing above Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein wouldn't pick up enough transfers from the Fine Gael elimination in particular to get elected.

I'd say the second seat in South-West has gone. North-West is 50-50. They could lose the second seat in Cork East (for the first time since November 1982), but it's very unlikely.

[EDDIEB]

I'd say he's gone.

I'd love to see FF get turfed out of Cork this time round. Their patronising arrogance towards us especially over the airport issue simply cannot and should not go unpunished.

Every party needs to know that they cannot take us for granted. We taught the FG/Labour crowd that lesson in the past when they didn't give Cork a minister at the cabinet table, methinks its time to crack the whip again.


In my opinion, O'Flynn and Dennehy should both be fired.

Kelleher and Martin should be the citys only FF representatives in the next Dail in order to put manners on them.

As regards the overall winners of the election, or who is going to be in government next, I just don't care so long as Cork gets a minister.

Be that Simon Coveney, Micheal Martin, Bernard Allen or Kathleen Lynch I really couldn't care less.

I'd say McGrath will take Dennehys seat as John Dennehy is 67 now and McGrath has a high profile.

[jungle]

I gave some explanation of why Tony Gregory may be in trouble. I thought I might give a short synopsis of my thinking in the other cases.


Michael McDowell - In his constituency, the Greens and Fianna Fail will hold their seats. Fine Gael don't have any and will be pressing to get one back. So, McDowell and Ruairi Quinn (who I should have included in the list) will be under pressure. Two seats between three candidates with any of the permutations possible.

Jim McDaid - Since the conversion of Niall Blaney to Fianna Fail, there are three outgoing FF TDs in a three seat constituency. Only two will retain their seats. Cecilia Keaveny will be one, the other could go to either of them.

Caoimhghin O Caolain - Cavan/Monaghan is reduced to a four seater because the Ceann Comhairle comes from there. Add to this that he had a heart attack recently and won't find canvassing easily and he's going to be relying on transfers to get in. The likelihood is that it'll be the independent who loses the seat here, but it could be O Caolain.

Fiona O'Malley - Dun Laoighaire with no Fine Gael TD? That will change. One Labour and one FF are a certainty. Fine Gael will put the Green, FF and O'Malley's seats under pressure.

Michael D Higgins - The Greens will gain a seat in Galway West. Most likely from the PDs, but it could be the Labour one. The fact that Margaret Cox is running as an independent just makes life tougher for him.

Martin Ferris - FF are certain to get one seat. Two of FG, Labour and Sinn Fein for the other. Deenihan should be OK for Fine Gael. In theory, with Dick Spring gone, Labour's vote should suffer. However, they are determined to get the seat back and Terry O'Brien, their candidate is said to be polling strongly. The drink-driving thing should have been the nail in his coffin, but in the perverse world of Kerry, it may actually make him more popular.

Donie Cassidy - Longford/Westmeath is a new constituency. It's unlikely to return more than 2 FF TDs. One of them will be from Longford. That leaves Mary O'Rourke and Donie Cassidy looking for a seat in Westmeath. Mary O'Rourke is itching to win her seat back.

Beverley Cooper-Flynn - Two FG and one FF are certain. There will be a massive scrap between a third FG, a second FF, Jerry Cowley and Cooper-Flynn to win the remaining seats. With Enda Kenny in the constituency, I'd expect FG to take the third, which would leave three potential candidates for the last seat.

[cartoon]

I'd say he's gone.

I'd love to see FF get turfed out of Cork this time round. Their patronising arrogance towards us especially over the airport issue simply cannot and should not go unpunished.

Every party needs to know that they cannot take us for granted. We taught the FG/Labour crowd that lesson in the past when they didn't give Cork a minister at the cabinet table, methinks its time to crack the whip again.



I'm with you on that but too many people vote from a mé féin perspective to make it happen.

South Central is a relatively affluent area with many older voters who have done well out of the Celtic Tiger while FF have been in power so I dont think theyll lose a seat.

I cant see Noel O'Flynn losing his either even though he agrees with the government on the airport debt issue. He was on Prendeville the other day and Niall asked him if he was ready for canvassing. The reply was a long sigh and Niall says "erra Noel you just want your job back without the hassle dont ya?". The reply barely disputed the accusation. Out!

[jungle]

You can probably take Martin Ferris off the list. That's more because of fuck-ups by the Labour candidate in Kerry North than anything else.

Another name to possibly add to the list is Mary Harney. The Fianna Fail and Green seats in her constituency are supposed to be safe, so she'll be fighting it out with Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Fein for the last two seats.

[jungle]

And apparently, we can add Liz O'Donnell. Just how fucked are the PDs in this election...