The Irish Times opinion poll this morning

[jungle]

Fianna Fáil 34 per cent (down 3 points)
Fine Gael 31 per cent (up 5 points)
Labour 10 per cent (down 1 point)
Sinn Féin 10 per cent (up 1 point)
Greens 6 per cent (down 2 points)
PDs 3 per cent (up 2 points)
and Independents/others 6 per cent (down 2 points).

There's a 3% margin of error

TBH I have more difficulty believing the FG figure than the FF one. Also, Independents and others will get more than 6 per cent.

I also can't see Sinn Fein getting as many votes as Labour. Constituency polls don't back this up.

Still, the election looks more competitive than I'd have expected.

[Proinsias]

Sinn Fein up to 10%?


Fucking hell. That's not good at all.

Interesting to see the PDs were at 1% considering they're up 2 points to 3%

[Tube a Pringles]

I can't believe that 1 in 10 of my countrymen would vote for the Shinners.......FFS!

[jungle]

Didn't they get 8% last time?

The real problem is that their support is localised in Dublin and the border counties and they will gain seats there.

However, they could end up in trouble in Cavan-Monaghan because that's been reduced to a 4 seater because the Ceann Comhairle is from there.

[markinmanc]

The Indo claims this morning that FF could lose up to 25 setas - I guess that is to make the opposition complacent and to motivate FF voters.

[Hochma]

The Indo claims this morning that FF could lose up to 25 setas - I guess that is to make the opposition complacent and to motivate FF voters.

An obvious assumption ... cunning yet undermining ...

[markinmanc]

An obvious assumption ... cunning yet undermining ...


Am I beginning to think like the rat in the anorak?

[Darker Conscience]

Sinn Fein up to 10%?


Fucking hell. That's not good at all.

Interesting to see the PDs were at 1% considering they're up 2 points to 3%

O' Brien #1

Barry #2

:D

[jungle]

O' Brien #1

Barry #2

:D

Depending on what you want to achieve with your vote, you might want to reverse that.

If you want to vote for Sinn Fein, fine, but if your aim is to get a left wing candidate elected, Mick Barry is the better choice.

In the last election, only 25% of Socialist votes in North Central transferred to Sinn Fein. Looking at the two constituencies where there were Socialist candidates who finished ahead of Sinn Fein last time out (Dublin West and Dublin North), on the elimination of the Sinn Fein candidate, 50% and 40% of votes transferred to the Socialists. So, it would appear that Mick Barry would hold together the left wing vote better. In that case, you want to vote to get him to finish above Jonathan O'Brien.